This is just a brief explainer re a seat that is not in significant doubt but that is going to cause confusion. Please post comments on other seats to the thread below.
In the seat of Cowper (NSW), Rob Oakeshott took on the Nationals' Luke Hartsuyker in a last-minute raid that caused the Nationals a lot of panic especially with polls showing a very tight race. In 2013 this was a classic Coalition-vs-Labor seat. Because Oakeshott has made the final two in 2016, the AEC is conducting a realignment of the Cowper count by booth.
Because different booths have very different leanings, the sample of booths included in the realignment will cause the two-candidate preferred count between Hartsuyker and Oakeshott to move around a lot in the early stages before eventually settling down. After six booths Oakeshott is in the lead on that count, which may give an appearance he is winning.