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Current aggregate (updated March 19): Coalition 44.6 Labor 35.3 Greens 10.2 Other 10.0
2PP Estimate: 53.3% to Coalition (54.6 by last election preferences)
Current median seat projection: Coalition 52 Labor 37 Others 4
Summary:
1. Recent polling shows the Coalition continuing to maintain a primary vote lead of at least eight points over Labor.
2. Recent polling also shows that while preferencing patterns among minor party voters may change, they are unlikely to change by nearly as much as in Queensland.
3. However, current polling when translated to seat projections suggests only a small Coalition majority.
4. There is more uncertainty than normal in translating the Coalition's current lead to seat results, and for this reason current voting intention levels do not quite assure the Coalition of victory.
5. Any narrowing of voting intention from this point would make a hung parliament significantly more likely.
