This is a relatively brief thread to update where the WA 2025 lower house postcount is at. Because I was playing chess all weekend and then spent a day recovering from dehydration (oh yes chess is a sport) I have been slow getting onto this, but given how slow the counting is, I've hardly missed anything!
As I start there are 51 seats the ABC has called (42 ALP 5 Lib 4 Nat). I don't see any reason to doubt any of these (there is some weirdness in Geraldton where the Independent Shane van Styn might be more of a threat to the Nationals had not both the Liberals and Labor recommended preferences against him). Of the eight the ABC shows as in doubt, I am also firmly expecting Labor to win:
Fremantle (ALP vs GRN 14.4%) Here independent Kate Hulett won the ordinary booths 51.9-48.1 vs Labor's Simone McGurk but her chances have been wrecked by absent votes (56.8 to ALP - "absent" in WA includes out of electorate prepolls) and postals (59.8 to ALP). These are common weak spots for independents but this is an extreme case because the Liberals recommended preferences to Labor. Hulett is 342 behind (50.8 to ALP) and isn't likely to break even on remaining postals either. She has flagged a possible challenge, I believe over voting day issues such as booths running out of ballot papers. [Update Friday: 491 votes the margin now.]
