2025: House of Reps Postcount: Ryan

RYAN (Grn vs LNP 2.65, Grn vs ALP 3CP 4.75)

Whichever of Elizabeth Watson-Brown (GRN) and Rebecca Hack (ALP) makes final two wins seat.

Watson-Brown makes final two - Green retain

Click here for link to Reps postcount hub and tallyboard page 

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I've been slow getting onto the count for Ryan firstly because there are so many weird seats at this election and secondly because on election night it seemed to be a reasonably easy hold for the Greens.  But Greens and teals have been copping a savage wrath from postal voters in the Melbourne inner city seats so it's time to check in on Ryan - it is interesting even if it turns out not to be close.  Through much of the term Elizabeth Watson-Brown was seen as the most endangered of the four Greens MHRs, now with Adam Bandt in a dodgy situation in Melbourne it's possible if she wins she'll be the last one standing.  The Greens have clearly lost Brisbane where they have fallen to third and have clearly lost Griffith where the LNP appears to be third at the three-candidate point (or failing that, they are).  They also appear not to be gaining Wills though I am still to check that in detail, and won't get there in Richmond where Justine Elliot is making the final two which guarantees her victory.  

The count for Ryan has much in common with Brisbane 2022.

As I start this article the primary votes with 78.0% counted are:

Maggie Forrest (LNP) 34.84
Elizabeth Watson-Brown (Grn) 29.11
Rebecca Hack (ALP) 28.20

N De Lapp (GRPF) 2.31

Robbie Elsom (ON) 2.14

Donna Gallehawk (FF) 1.25

Ryan Hunt (TOP) 1.24

Gina Masterton (FUSION) 0.92

Currently Watson-Brown leads Hack on primary votes by 655.

2025 House of Reps Postcount: Monash

MONASH (Vic, Lib 2.9%, occupied by deselected ex-Lib IND)

Issue was whether Deb Leonard (IND) could make final two and whether she could win if so.  Leonard will not make final two.  Liberal retain.

Click here for link to Reps postcount hub and tallyboard page.  

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I like to do posts about postcount seats that are not necessarily the most competitve but the weirdest, and in this respect Monash well deserves a thread of its own, though Calwell is giving it a run for its money.  

In Monash the Liberals disendorsed 25-year veteran Russell Broadbent, who immediately moved to the crossbench and eventually ran as an independent.  Broadbent had attracted attention particularly as a prominent member of the anti-COVID-vaccines/mandates movement but another factor was simply the desire for renewal.  The campaign saw some tension over One Nation how to vote cards - I haven't got to the bottom of the story but have heard claims that the Liberals printed a card on One Nation's behalf that turned out not to reflect One Nation's preferencing decisions (because they continued to recommend preferences to Broadbent in this seat).  

Going The Distance: Federal Seats That Do And Don't Make It To The Final Two

Recently I had this question on the website formerly known as Twitter.  

I thought this was a very interesting question because while whether a seat comes down to the final two or not doesn't have much to do with how close the seat is, it's something we don't think about much in federal elections.  Every vote is thrown by the AEC to the final two candidates, but in some cases it doesn't reach the final two until after the seat has already been decided because a candidate has crossed 50%.  Indeed, in a rapidly reducing number of seats the contest is decided on primary votes and the preference throw is entirely academic to the result.

Contests don't get thought about in these terms so much because every vote is present in a notional final two soon after it is counted via the notional two-candidate preferred.  This gives a single indication of the margin of victory.  It obscures the nuance that a candidate who finishes on 54% of the final two-candidate preferred might have even crossed 50% before the last exclusion then done badly on the last lot of preferences, while another candidate might have needed a trickle of preferences to get over the line yet got so many preferences that they finish up with a 2CP of 68%.

2022 House of Reps Postcount: Macnamara

Macnamara (Vic, ALP vs Lib 6.3)
(2019 3CP Lib 39.5 ALP 33.2 Green 27.3)

Exclusion order issue: final two undecided with Liberal, Labor and Greens all very close at 3-candidate point.

Labor needs to remain in top three to win

Labor will win the seat - just!

This post will follow the postcount in Macnamara, which under its old name of Melbourne Ports delivered the most exciting postcount of the 2016 election, with a two-way contest between Labor and the Greens to make the final two and the Liberals also a chance to unseat Michael Danby.  Six years later the Liberals have totally cooked their chances in the seat after picking two dud candidates in a row, and Josh Burns has replaced the more controversial Danby and appears popular and to be set for life.  Or is he?

2022 House of Reps Postcount: Brisbane

Brisbane (LNP 4.9% vs ALP)

LNP has lost, Stephen Bates (Greens) vs Madonna Jarrett (Labor) for seat

Bates and Jarrett very close for second on primaries. Whichever of Bates and Jarrett makes the final two after preferences wins.

Greens will win seat.

This post will follow the postcount in the division of Brisbane, where Trevor Evans has been defeated and we are waiting to find out which of Stephen Bates (Greens) and Madonna Jarrett (Labor) takes the seat.  

Current primaries are:

Evans (LNP) 36.5
Bates (Greens) 28.6
Jarrett (Labor) 27.8
One Nation 2.0
UAP 1.9
Animal Justice 1.7
Liberal Democrats 1.5

2022 House of Reps Postcount: Richmond

RICHMOND (NSW) (ALP 4.1%)

Justine Elliot (ALP) vs Mandy Nolan (GRN) based on candidate exclusion order

(2019 3CP NAT 41.7 ALP 34.7 GRN 23.6)

Labor is second on primaries and needs to stay ahead of Nationals or overtake Greens (after preferences) to make top three.

Large Liberal Democrat primary may cause Nationals to make final two.

Elliot expected to move into lead on prepolls and retain.

(Elliot has claimed victory - awaiting confirmation of result.)