Not-A-Poll Reset: Dropping Like Flies (Gunner Resigns)

Just over a month after Peter Gutwein resigned and under two months since Steven Marshall was defeated, we've lost our third Australian leader for the year with NT Chief Minister Michael Gunner checking out after just under six years in the role.  Gunner has thrown in the towel for family reasons without being the subject of any significant controversy (at least, nothing significant by NT standards).  He goes out with a fine electoral record, having led his party to a huge win against the chaos of the Giles regime in 2016 then retained government easily with a modest swing against in 2020.

These were the previous round's results.  Even less surprisingly than last time, hardly anyone expected that a state or territory leader would go before the federal election, though the percentage tipping a federal leader to be next to go did fall slightly from 93.3% to 90.4%.  

Just two voters managed to successfully pick that Gunner would be the next to depart, the same number as but an even lower percentage than picked Gutwein in the previous edition.  The winning votes were lodged on April 26 and May 5.

Surely this time one of the federal leaders will be next?  Well, maybe not surely, but the only ways this doesn't happen is if (i) someone else goes before the outcome of the election is clear or (ii) Morrison wins the election and Albanese stays on as opposition leader.  Note that in the event of Albanese winning and becoming PM, he is not deemed to have gone for poll purposes, while Morrison is deemed to have gone as PM even in the event of him losing but remaining for any meaningful length of time as Opposition Leader.  I expect the turnover will set some kind of record with the impending likely loss of a fourth leader in little over two months, and perhaps more later this year, but I'll cover that after the federal election.

Natasha Fyles' elevation to the position of Chief Minister means the NT is the only current jurisdiction with female government and opposition leaders.  The NT is also the first jurisdiction to have had two separate spells of this being the case (Clare Martin/Jodeen Carney being the other).  The ACT had Follett/Carnell followed by Carnell/Follett, NSW had Berejiklian/McKay and Queensland had Palaszczuk/Frecklington.  

The current round of voting closes at 5 pm on election day, and will be reopened after the election if it dislodges neither leader.