ELECTORAL, POLLING AND POLITICAL ANALYSIS, COMMENT AND NEWS FROM THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CLARK. THIS MACHINE KILLS BAD ELECTORAL SYSTEMS. IF USING THIS SITE ON MOBILE YOU CAN SCROLL DOWN AND CLICK "VIEW WEB VERSION" TO SEE THE SIDEBAR FULL OF GOODIES.
Tuesday, May 18, 2021
Poll Roundup: Another Budget Rates Pretty Well As Early Election Talk Resumes
Tuesday, October 27, 2020
Post-Budget Federal Polling Roundup
I haven't done a federal polling roundup for a long time, because most of the time at present we are only getting Newspoll. However, last week saw the quarterly batch release of Essential's new poll results and there is actually enough information out there to make it worth sneaking in a general if slightly dated polling review in the small window of spare time I have between the ACT and Queensland election counts. My previous comments about federal polling (or mostly, the Australian's lousy coverage thereof) were here.
This year we saw very little of a common polling trope in previous years - fevered speculation about whether the government of the day would get a "Budget bounce". Actual budget bounces are rare, but the extremely well-received 2019 Budget not only saw an immediate lift of about 0.6% in aggregated polling for the Coalition, but also either coincided with or kickstarted a longer recovery that continued through the campaign. We now know that all that polling was wrong, but we don't know if it was wrong by the same amount all along. In any case, 2019 was another example of the strongest evidence (such as it was, since it could be coincidence rather than causation) for the Budgets that most help government polling usually occurring in a Coalition government's election year.
Newspoll recently recorded a 51% 2PP for the government before the Budget and a 52% after it, which people unfamiliar with the idea of random statistical noise may have taken as evidence of another Budget bounce. However, the evidence from Essential weakens if not completely negates the evidence for the bounce, depending on how Essential is interpreted.
Friday, October 18, 2019
The Chisholm and Kooyong Signs Challenges
The function of a Disputed Returns hearing is to decide whether a seat needs to be vacated and it is not surprising that the Court did not turn over all the rocks that might have been needed to fully explore the question of whether an offence was committed. That question was ultimately irrelevant to the outcome of the challenges. This does however raise the question of what recourse there is over the misleading signs, if any. Normally these matters would be pursued through the AEC (not necessarily to prosecution, perhaps a warning), but the AEC initially submitted that there was no offence anyway. It might not be all that interested in trying to now establish whether there was a fault element involved in the production of an illegal sign that it did not consider illegal in the first place. Especially, it is unclear who would be in a position to demonstrate that fault element in a complaint. I am not sure therefore whether the matter will go any further.
Again, it is my view that these sorts of signs should be banned. The above outcome of the case only further highlights why the existing law does not adequately address misleading and deceptive signs that pretend to be official electoral signs.
The only other action of interest today was the costs order. The AEC is to bear its own costs. The Court is considering ordering that the Commonwealth bear the costs of the successful defendants Liu and Frydenberg, the unsuccessful challenger (Garbett) in Chisholm (because of public interest) but not the unsuccessful challenger (Yates) in Kooyong (because of a it being a duplicate case that was obviously unrealistic given Frydenberg's margin.) The Court will determine these matters later on further papers from the parties.
Update Dec 24: As expected both petitions have been dismissed. However the Court has asked Simon Frost to show cause why an apparent violation of the Electoral Act by him and possibly others should not be reported, suggesting that it has provisionally found the signs were illegal but has found that the outcome should not be altered as there is insufficient evidence that they changed the results in those seats. The judgement is available here.
The Guardian has an excerpt:
"“In our view, the corflutes are properly read, not as encouragement to vote 1 Liberal, but as a statement first, that to vote correctly (that is validly), one must vote 1 Liberal and, secondly, that there was an official instruction of the AEC that electors must cast their votes as indicated,” the court said."
The court has found that the signs did have the capacity to mislead electors (albeit naive, gullible or uninformed ones) in relation to the casting of their votes but that at most a handful of voters could have been so misled, nowhere near sufficient to overturn the result. The court has found the signs only had capacity to mislead where they were placed next to an AEC sign. Simon Frost has been given a chance to argue that he should not be the subject of a declaration of illegality because he was not represented while giving evidence in court.
Update Dec 21: Judgement in these cases will be handed down at 2:15 pm December 24.
Updates Nov 6-8
The case, before three judges, is now on, and expected to run for three days, after which the court may well reserve its judgement. Tweeted coverage is being provided by Josh Taylor of the Guardian and I will link here to other reports of interest that I see. If anything of special interest comes up I may discuss it at length here.
Nov 6 12:30: Of some interest today is discussion about the signs having said something different to what was intended (as touched on below) - Frost says that he provided an intended meaning but the actual signs when translated said something different. According to Taylor "Frost said he made no inquiries on election day to make sure the corflutes said what he authorised them to say. Frydenberg and Liu didn't contact him to ask about them on election day" and "Frost says he doesn't know if anyone who proof-read the corflutes before election day speak/read Chinese." (It may be significant here that Liu could read the signs for herself.) However later in his evidence Frost said that the Hotham Liberal candidate, George Hua, checked the signs. According to Taylor, Frost has also admitted that the corflute was intended to convey the impression that it was an AEC sign.
Under Section 329 (5) "it is a defence if the person proves that he or she did not know, and could not reasonably be expected to have known, that the matter or thing was likely to mislead an elector in relation to the casting of a vote." however "Note: A defendant bears a legal burden in relation to the defence in subsection (5) (see section 13.4 of the Criminal Code )." It should be kept in mind that Simon Frost is not on trial for breaching Section 329 at present.