Disputed Returns challenge to win by Nicolette Boele over Gisele Kapterian (Lib) by 26 votes
This is an ongoing thread to follow the challenge by Gisele Kapterian (Liberal) to Nicolette Boele's (IND) victory by 26 votes in the seat of Bradfield. This is the first CDR challenge by a candidate to be based on the count, rather than eligibility or alleged misconduct issues, since Fran Bailey's (Liberal) win in McEwen 2007 was challenged by now MP for the seat Rob Mitchell (ALP). On comments about the case available so far the case is likely to be very similar to McEwen in proceedings.
I previously covered the main part of the Bradfield postcount in a general teal seat postcount thread and the late postcount (distribution of preferences phase) and recount in a Bradfield specific thread. I also covered the Goldstein partial recount and count history on a separate thread that may be useful for comparisons.
Boele had been down for the count at times in the initial count but got back up again, mainly on a very strong batch of out of electorate prepolls followed by the very last batch of postals breaking strongly to her (not such an unusual thing). She went into the distribution of preferences 40 votes ahead but dropped back through the distribution to finish it 8 votes behind. This is not surprising because in the distribution the votes that get the most attention are votes for minor candidates, so the candidate more reliant on preferences is more likely to suffer if votes are found to be informal on further scrutiny. The recount has the opposite dynamic - at this stage the primary votes of the leaders have been less checked than the preferences, and so this can hurt the primary vote leader. Which it did. Boele started very slowly in the recount and was still three votes behind and running out of booths when there was a big shift to her in the Turramurra PPVC, which was the last big prepoll to be recounted. Boele also then made gains in other booths in the St Ives and Turramurra areas and finished 26 votes ahead.
