George Tree (ALP) vs Luke Herdegen (ON), Ryan Robertson (Lib) and way too many others
Cause of by-election: resignation of Paul Papalia (ALP)
This is another combined prospects/live (with added snark) post for a state by-election of unusual interest. Since One Nation surged into contention in national polling, there have been three by-elections involving the party: Farrer where it was very obvious they were the favourites, Nepean where they were not given any real chance of winning, and this one which is on paper a lot more up for grabs. This is a key test of whether One Nation can deliver in the kinds of outer suburban seats that need to be the second string in their bow alongside rural seats if they are to break into parliaments in a big way. That said it is a by-election and a win will not necessarily guarantee that they can do it at a competitive general election.
Secret Harbour, on Perth's far southern outskirts and overlapping just into Mandurah, is a traditionally very strong Labor seat versus Liberals (it and its predecessors Peel and Warnbro have never been even close to marginal). But is also a seat where One Nation poll way above their average. In 2025 it was One Nation's sixth best seat statewide in the Assembly (with 8.43% of the vote, less than a point off their best, behind only four rural seats and adjacent Mandurah). However that is a tad misleading as they drew the top position on the ballot. It was still their ninth best Legislative Council seat (the more reliable indicator of party strength) with 6.07% of the vote compared to a state total of 3.84%.
In the just-released DemosAU state poll, One Nation is getting 21% statewide. Experience in peak elections like Queensland 1998 and SA 2026 is that One Nation surge more than uniform swing would expect in areas they were already doing well in. If a normal election were to occur right now, then based off that poll One Nation would expect something like 30% in Secret Harbour. And this is a by-election which is an opportunity to kick an incumbent government. So except perhaps for the large field size it is easy to put One Nation north of 30.
Labor for its part is coming off a 46.5% primary in 2025 but is down 8.4 points in the DemosAU poll and this would be without considering the usual by-election factors of a seat being vacant and any extra kicking of the government. On this basis it's easy to put Labor and One Nation in close enough to the same place on primaries (maybe Labor just a little ahead, on paper) and at the mercy of the size and preference flow strengths from mainly the Liberals and Greens. The Liberals shouldn't get a large vote though they should beat their 13.2% from 2021, especially after drawing the top of the ballot. The Greens polled 8.8% in 2025 and are unlikely to match that in a crowded field. Legalise Cannabis tend to do well here though it will be interesting to see how much One Nation tread on their toes, and the rest including some of Australia's most infamous serial candidates will be scrapping for detritus unless any of the indies can get anything. I'll be watching how many deposits come back, but more than five would be a surprise, it might not even be that many.
There has been no real polling for this seat, just the West Australian embarrassing itself again by pretending that 120 is a sample size. As William Bowe notes the 2025 election did not go well for their "exit polls".
Candidate Factors
This by-election is unusual in that although Labor and One Nation are the obvious frontrunners on paper both are running questionable candidates. I doubt the news that Labor's Georgia Tree is on leave from Woodside lobbying will concern more than a handful of voters in a seat infested with tradies. The fact that she lives 60 km outside the seat, and worse still in inner suburbia, despite having grown up in Warnbro might not go down as well.
On the One Nation side, gym owner Luke Herdegen has attracted ripples mainly for news that he spent most of 2016 in a bowl of cocaine, from which he took brief breaks to consort with the Albanian underworld and lose at least one multi-millionaire girlfriend, like you do. He's turned his life around but it does irk me when people support tough on crime policies when they themselves would not have been running for office had they been caught. (Not that One Nation really care about drugs that much anyway, with the exception of puberty blockers.) The media trail has gone quiet since the initial revelations rather than it turning into an embattled candidate saga and we will see if the voters care about this stuff either.
The Liberals have copped flak from Canning federal MP Andrew Hastie, whose seat overlaps most of this one, for not trying to beat One Nation. If One Nation win or at least thrash the Liberals there will be a strong sense they are coming for him (as if an endless stream of MRP projections where he loses the seat to One Nation 40-60 isn't enough foreboding yet; not everyone believes them.)
My view of this one overall is a win is a win is a win, both for Labor and One Nation. It would be nice to win by lots but unlike a lot of by-elections there is no such thing as winning by not enough. A close loss is no disaster for either side but if it's a substantial loss (46-54 or worse) then questions will have to be asked. For Labor - you threw the kitchen sink at this in spending terms, was it your candidate selection or the feds what did it? For One Nation - if you can't get close here and in a by-election (and after making very confident noises about it in the leadup) then precisely where, are you for real or is it just a bubble? And so on.
(One Nation are very confident and a Labor MP stating "We've lost this" on election eve seems to go a little beyond the usual ALP line in pessimistic expectation management. For those following betting, which is amusing but not predictive, One Nation have been plunging and as of election day 8:30 am are at 2.25 vs 1.55, implied 41% chance)
Electoral Act Sooking
One of my pet themes is that for a party that claims to not care about expressing views that often cause offence, One Nation are often a bunch of sooks. No more the case than with this complaint about a Labor attack flier where One Nation are alleging the flier is improperly authorised. There is no requirement in the WA Electoral Act that both sides of a flier be authorised. There is a requirement that both sides of a how-to-vote card be authorised, but only if both sides contain how-to-vote recommendations.
Election night
The day booth lineup is the same as in 2025 except that the Madora Bay booth has moved about 1.5 km to the north. Also the Secret Harbour EPP polling place is open on election day, which I don't think it was in 2025. Absent votes don't exist in by-elections but an odd thing with this one is that Labor did really badly on those on a 2PP basis in 2025 anyway. Voting before the election is reported as being up by thousands on the combined postal and prepoll vote from 2025 so the count for the main prepoll could be a long one. The huge number of pointless candidates will slow down counting too and it will be interesting to see if the WAEC can rebound after a 2025 election performance that ended with the then Commissioner resigning.
Tune in for an interesting count - comments from close of polls on, scrolling to the top.
