CLARK (2021 Result 2 Liberal 1 Labor 1 Green 1 IND)
Notional 2021 7-Seat Result 2 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green 2 IND
Notional 2021 7-Seat Result 2 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green 2 IND
SEATS WON: 2 ALP 2 Lib 2 Green 1 IND
CALLED WINNERS: Ella Haddad (ALP), Josh Willie (ALP), Kristie Johnston (IND), Vica Bayley (Grn), Simon Behrakis (Lib), Helen Burnet (Grn), Madeleine Ogilvie (Lib)
Welcome to Clark which had all the fun in 2021 and has thrown up something a little bit unexpected in 2024. The Independents haven't done quite as well as had been thought, and the seat that could have gone to Sue Hickey appears to have gone to the Greens or Labor instead. As I start, Clark is 79.3% counted. Still to come are the booths of Kingston, Kingston Beach, Sandfly and the Kingston prepoll. Labor has 2.49 quotas, Liberals 2.16, Greens 1.61, Johnston (IND) 0.63, Hickey (IND) 0.40, Lohberger (IND) 0.21, Elliot (IND) 0.15, AJP 0.14, SFF 0.11 and ... oh, why were all these people on my ballot paper.
Johnston as an independent is too far ahead for Hickey to catch her, especially as Lohberger's voters are more likely to be sympathetic to Johnston. Also because she cannot leak votes she will most likely beat both Labor and the Greens. The question is can Labor beat the Greens. At the moment it looks like probably not. Both Labor and the Greens have similar leakage exposure, but the votes still to add should be significantly better for the Greens as Labor polled dismally in the Kingston prepoll last time. The Greens will also be assisted by preferences from Animal Justice and probably from Lohberger. So I don't currently see any reason why Labor stops Helen Burnet from going to state parliament but it is close enough that this will need to be looked at further. If Burnet wins this will trigger a recount for her Hobart Council seat (which should go to Bec Taylor, Gemma Kitsos or perhaps Nathan Volf) and Hobart will elect a new Deputy Mayor around the table.
On the Liberal side Madeleine Ogilvie is almost a thousand votes ahead of Marcus Vermey but it's worth checking if the remaining votes bring this down to something where Vermey could still be competitive on preferences. Ogilvie might catch Simon Behrakis but I don't believe that both Ogilvie and Vermey can do that.
Amusingly it has again happened in Clark that nobody has quota, with Ella Haddad topping the poll. This will make for a reasonably quick distribution at least to start with!
Sue Hickey is unlikely to get preferences from Lohberger voters, which might have otherwise been a path for her to stay in the race by getting ahead of Labor then attempting to beat Burnet on Labor preferences. (There may be some crossover in support but they are diametrically opposed on Save UTAS which is likely to be part of the reason for Lohberger doing much better than most local councillors who ran in this one.) It tends to happen anyway that a lot of Labor minor candidate preferences exhaust so at the moment it doesn't look realistic that Hickey could beat both Labor and the Greens.
Sunday: The Greens have benefited from the added votes climbing to 1.63 quotas compared to Labor's 2.46. Ogilvie's lead over Vermey has now gone over 1000, it would be very unusual for that to be closed.
Monday: I have done some geographic analysis of Ben Lohberger's votes; they are very focused around the University of Tasmania Sandy Bay campus and surrounding suburbs suggesting that his vote came to a large degree from the Save UTAS movement (as high as 10.7% at Sandy Bay booth). It is possible there will still be substantial flow from him to Hickey based on them being adjacent on the ballot paper but it looks like a lot of his support was single issue voters. In the northern suburbs as expected he's on 0-2%.
Thursday: With extra out of division votes added the Liberals are now 2.18 quotas, Labor 2.44, Greens 1.66, Johnston 0.62, Hickey 0.39. Labor are clearly too far back to catch the Greens here as there are not enough helpful preferences. Hickey also won't catch them with independent votes splitting between multiple independents and major parties exhausting so I am seeing no realistic doubt that the Greens have won two seats in Clark.
Tuesday: In a late update on Thursday that I missed the Liberals dropped back to 2.17 quotas. We will get final primaries followed by the exclusion of many assorted ballot-clutterers from the tail end. There is apparently not a lot of suspense about the outcome in this seat this time but it will be interesting to watch the throws and see how many can be eliminated in one night.
6 pm. Final primaries Liberals 2.16 Q Labor 2.43 Greens 1.66 Johnston 0.61 Hickey 0.39 - and the cutup is on with two candidates excluded already!
Wednesday 1 pm: The first Clark Liberal exclusion has occurred, with Madeleine Ogilvie moving further ahead of Marcus Vermey, as a result of which I see no realistic doubt that Ogilvie will retain her seat. Ignoring limited preference flow into the ticket from other sources, Vermey would need a close to 2-1 split vs Ogilvie on Liberal preferences even if they were the only two left in the count, but Behrakis is also still in the count, so that can't happen.
5:45 pm: Not a lot happening in Clark with very large margins between the apparent winners and anyone else. Another Liberal (Searle) did not affect the margin between Ogilvie and Vermey (indeed it's possible Ogilvie will pass Behrakis). The TEC has called time on Clark for the day with the votes of Jones (Green) and Aldergham (Liberal) to decide a thrilling battle for 16th place between Elliot (IND) and Davies (AJP) which Elliot currently leads by one vote.
Thursday 10:30 Davies has triumphed in that battle by 18 votes, gaining 15 on Greens leakage then, improbably, 4 on Liberal leakage.
11:20 A very quick Elliot exclusion, gains were Liberals 566 Labor 102 Green 35 AJP 33 Johnston 173 Hickey 151 Lohberger 290.
12:20 With the exclusion of Rebecca Prince happening now, Ella Haddad is about to be the first candidate elected.
2:50 Haddad has indeed crossed quota and is the first female Labor candidate to ever be first elected in Clark!
4:07 Vica Bayley has also now crossed.
6:37 The exclusion of Lohberger was interesting - Johnston 915 Hickey 406 Greens 381 Labor 261 Liberals 231. There is some IND-IND flow here and some proximity voting but the strength of the flow to Johnston would be driven by anti-UTAS-move voting. Update: Clark finished for today.
Friday: The endgame in Clark is nigh, except it isn't much of a game. Stuart Benson has been excluded, this will elect Josh Willie with a large surplus, which will be thrown again (much of it exhausting), followed by the exclusion of either Hickey or Vermey.
2:30: Kristie Johnston has just crossed quota on Sue Hickey's exclusion. Excluding the proto-party Green Independents (1986, 1989, 1992) she is the first independent elected as such in back to back elections since Bill Wedd 1948, 1950
5:00 Clark is over! Burnet crossed quota, the two Liberals didn't with Behrakis 353 votes ahead of Ogilvie, more or less reversing his margin of defeat for the second seat from 2021.
If Burnett gets up what will happen with Dep Lord Mayor?
ReplyDeleteThe new Deputy Mayor will be elected by Council.
DeleteThanks. And a new councilor on a count back? Who will that be?
ReplyDeleteOne of the other Greens - Gemma Kitsos, Bec Taylor or Nathan Volf. Possibly Taylor given her higher profile though her vote in 2022 was not as high as in previous elections.
DeleteThanks!
Delete