2025 Tasmanian Election Postcount: Braddon

 BRADDON (2024 Result 3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 JLN 1 IND)

(At Election 3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Nat 1 IND)

SEATS WON 4 Liberal 2 Labor 1 IND

SEAT WINNERS: Jeremy Rockliff (Lib), Gavin Pearce (Lib), Felix Ellis (Lib), Roger Jaensch (Lib, TBC), Anita Dow (ALP), Shane Broad (ALP), Craig Garland (IND)

SEAT LOST: Miriam Beswick (Nat)

Liberal gain from National

Click here for link to tallyboard page with links to other postcounts as written

One election Braddon canes the Liberals by becoming the first non-marginal seat to be lost by an Opposition to a Government in federal election history.  The next election, this ... there can be no purer example of how Tasmanians view state and federal politics differently.

While I thought the Liberals were a chance for four seats here I thought it would most likely be by squeezing the Greens through a favourable distribution of votes in their ticket.  Instead the Liberals have polled a stonking 49.7%, let's call it 50% because it may well get there, in their own right.  

The Liberals in Braddon have 3.97 quotas, Labor 1.90, Craig Garland 0.82 and the Greens 0.58.  I'm not bothering with third decimal places here because this result is clearcut.  Garland as a lone independent will improve his position relative to the Greens because he cannot leak votes whereas they will leak votes as minor candidate are excluded, but it doesn't matter because the Greens would not get near him anyway.

Premier Rockliff has 2.53 quotas in his own right.  His surplus will elect Gavin Pearce.  On past form it will also bring Roger Jaensch up closer to Felix Ellis and well clear of Giovanna Simpson (Jaensch has a history of polling modest primary votes but huge shares of Rockliff's surplus),  but that will be confirmed early in the cutup.  Then exclusions from the bottom up and at some point all of Ellis, Jaensch, Dow, Broad and Garland will all either cross quota or be left without quota but way clear of the Greens.

In the event that the Greens were competitive the poor concentration of their vote in the seat, with only 36.6% being 1 Bleyer, down from the 53.0% for Darren Briggs last time, would be a major problem for them anyway.  Garland has performed very well in roughly doubling his 2024 vote.

Except for Garland the remaining independents have mostly served to clutter up the ballot paper and have polled risibly low vote shares, as have the Nationals.  

As this seat is completely settled barring the confirmation of the usual Rocky/Roger surplus surge, I won't be paying Braddon much attention in this postcount.  However, there will be some updates.