2024 Tasmanian Postcount: Lyons

LYONS (2021 Result 3 Liberal 2 Labor - At election 2 Liberal 2 Labor 1 IND)
Notional 2021 7-Seat Result 4 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green

SEATS WON: 3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green 1 JLN

CALLED WINNERS: Rebecca White (ALP), Guy Barnett (Lib), Jane Howlett (Lib), Mark Shelton (Lib), Tabatha Badger (GRN), Jen Butler (ALP), Andrew Jenner (JLN)

SEAT LOST: John Tucker (IND)

(Links to other seat postcount pages Bass Braddon Clark Franklin Summary)

As I start this piece Lyons is 79.1% counted with the Latrobe polling place still to add on Sunday [EDIT: Latrobe is of course in Braddon so it appears this was an out of division booth that was intended to be counted separately but will now not be.  The reason Lyons is lagging is that it has a much higher out-of-division vote than other seats.]. The Liberals are on 3.01 quotas, Labor have surged late in the night to 2.64, the Greens have 0.83, JLN 0.67, Shooters 0.38, John Tucker 0.26, Animal Justice 0.13 and why did the rest bother.  I expected Lyons to be the hardest seat to follow on the night and it has been but not in the way I expected.  

The Liberals are three quotas and out (Jane Howlett transferring to the Lower House which will leave Prosser vacant) and John Tucker is just simply out (independents bombed miserably in Lyons) but the interest is in the final seat race between the Greens, Labor and Lambie Network.  

With 0.16 quota lead over JLN and 0.19 over Labor, the Greens definitely should be OK to beat at least one of those (they only need to beat one).  The Shooters and Tucker preferences could be very unfriendly to the Greens but these will be distributed at a stage when there are still Liberals soaking up votes.  The AJP preferences should help the Greens too. My feeling is the Greens win is callable now but I want to make sure when more awake just to be on the safe side.

Rebecca White has topped the poll again with 1.7 quotas in her own right; if last time is any guide Jen Butler will get a stack of that and get re-elected.  In the race between a third Labor, JLN and the Greens, Labor is exposed to 9541 leakable votes, JLN 3441, Greens 3254.  Labor's massively greater leakage risk suggests that JLN should be favourites on current votes unless their ticket is much leakier than Labor's - which could yet be the case - or unless they fall back in late counting.

There is a dingdong JLN battle between former Tory mayor Andrew Jenner and removalist Troy Pfitzner; both are known stadium sympathisers.  As I start, Jenner leads by 43.  

Thursday: While we wait for the large out-of-electorate vote to be added in Lyons (which I expect to happen today), a note from Franklin scrutineering.  In Franklin I found that roughly 18% of JLN votes were leaking from the ticket, which is larger than I would expect from Labor but not enough to change the fact that Labor are more exposed to leakage.  I also suspect that in Lyons there will be a higher share of linear 1-3s in the Lambie ticket and therefore it's possible leakage could be a bit less.  If JLN are still in front at the end of today's counting they seem to have a good chance.  Shooters preferences were more helpful to them in the last Senate election than to Labor as well.  

6:10 There has been a minor update in Lyons with no significant changes and a bigger one is coming soon.

9:30 The big update is in with just over 90% counted (very little to add) and the Liberals 3.00 quotas Labor 2.61 Greens 0.87 JLN 0.67 Shooters 0.39 Tucker 0.25.  Now the Greens have a combined 0.46 quota lead over Labor and JLN and what is going to happen here is that minor preferences will gradually push the Liberals over three quotas giving them a small surplus which will be distributed when the fourth Liberal tips any not already elected Liberals over quota; this surplus will most likely half exhaust.  The total number of preferences outside the top four is 0.85Q and that includes AJP; I cannot see Labor and JLN both getting over the Greens on that.  JLN moves further ahead of Labor.    Jenner leads Pfitzner by 54.

Tuesday: We will get final primaries tonight but nothing more.

9 pm: A tightening in JLN's lead to 0.664 vs 2.622 quotas on final primaries.  Jenner leads Pfitzner by 50 votes.  Goss leads Dudman by 299.

Wednesday 1:40 pm: An unexpectedly large leakage out of Labor's ticket on the election of Rebecca White with 16.2% leaking outside the ticket, compared to only 11% in 2021.  This has dropped Labor back to 2.51 quotas compared to 0.69 for JLN, and the spread means Labor are still far more exposed to leakage than JLN with 7033 between their bottom four.  Goss leads Dudman by 86 while Butler is over 2000 ahead for second and will be re-elected.  However with the split between Butler and Goss/Dudman being not overly strong, there is still a possibility here that Labor can beat JLN by keeping two Labor candidates below quota to the end.  It would require Butler to not get too many preferences within the ticket and Labor to do very well on preferences generally; I'm not sure there is any other hope here.  Jenner now 73 up on Pfitzner.  

5:30 pm: Very little change to the picture through the day as several minor candidates are excluded.  Goss leads Dudman by 96 for what is probably not anything, Jenner leads Pfitzner by 92.

Thursday 11:35 Not a lot of action in Lyons with some relatively unexciting exclusions going on but in the next few hours we will get the Animal Justice exclusion.  In Braddon this helped JLN more than Labor.

2:45 Something that is happening here is that Jenner is slowly slipping further ahead of Pfitzner, and is now 130 ahead on his ticketmate.  In the other seats where JLN has been excluded we have seen very even split between its candidates which suggests Pfitzner might already find it very hard to catch up.

5:40 The first JLN exclusion has been reached, that of Lesley Pyecroft.  JLN votes at this stage are Jenner 2674 Pfitzner 2561 Pyecroft 2225.  

6:50 Lyons is finished for the day.  Jenner gained 905 off Pyecroft, Pfitzner 832 and 488 (22%) leaked.  That is a higher leak than in the other third-candidate JLN exclusions so far.  Jenner leads Pfitzner by 186.  There are still a lot of votes to be thrown including Tucker and the party of guns and rods*; there also should at some point be a small Liberal surplus which will mostly exhaust.  

(* Some Shooters, Fishers and Farmers officebearers have been complaining about me calling their party "Shooters" so I am making jokes about them.)

Friday 10:30 Will be a while before anything much happens here.  Hannah Rubenach-Quinn (Green) is being excluded followed by Richard Hallett (Lib).  Hallett will put Guy Barnett over quota with surplus and then there should be the first interesting exclusion, of John Tucker.  

1:15 John Tucker is excluded.  Now candidates who could get excluded next are Dudman (ALP 3500), Pfitzner (JLN 3532) or Williams (SFF 3394).  Labor is currently 2248 behind JLN on party totals and there doesn't seem to be much prospect of keeping Butler much below quota without help from other parties. 

2:55 Tucker's exclusion pushed Labor still further behind (now 2555 back) and Pfitzner made no headway on Jenner off that one and presumably won't off Williams either.  

3:55 On Ben Dudman's primary value votes, Jane Howlett has been elected off leakage with a surplus of two votes.  Jen Butler is still 813 shy of quota with 1135 to throw but I doubt she can avoid hitting quota off the Shooters and Liberal surplus.  

5:10 The Lyons count seems interminable.  Anyway Dudman is out and Butler is still a little short of quota but not to the point that Labor benefits, even if she does not cross the line the final JLN exclusion will put the other JLN candidate (presumably Jenner) thousands of votes ahead of Goss.  

6:50 Williams is excluded now and this has elected Butler; Butler's surplus of 199 and another 99 from Williams via various surpluses need to be thrown.  Now Pfitzner is 69 behind Cameron and will more or less certainly be excluded next, followed by Cameron who will put Shelton over quota, Shelton's surplus might then elect Jenner or in any case leave Goss a long way behind Badger and Jenner, and that will be the end. 

Saturday 10:00 This seat should finish today.  Pftizner is excluded meaning Andrew Jenner is on his way to parliament.  

11:40 Stephanie Cameron is being excluded.  This will elect Mark Shelton and 2898 votes will leave the Liberal ticket headed for Labor, Greens, JLN or exhaust.  A lot of them will exhaust.  Jenner could overtake Badger on the Liberal throws as he is currently 69 votes behind; in any case we will be left with a final margin that is either JLN vs Labor or Greens vs Labor, and that will be thousands of votes.

1:00 Mark Shelton is elected.  There is a surplus of 2044 but the result is now mathematically certain. Jenner has overtaken Badger and they will be elected 6 and 7, probably that order. 

4:55 Lyons is over, Jenner did stay ahead of Badger and the final margin was Greens over Labor by 3.7%.