Poll Roundup: Budget Does Nothing As Per Normal

2PP Aggregate 51.1 To ALP (2022 preferences) (-0.1 since end of last week)

With One Nation adjustment 50.5 to ALP
If polls are accurate, Labor would most likely win election "held now" (probably in minority but with a significant chance of majority)

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This was intended to be a rolling Budget week poll roundup but over the Budget poll release weekend I was in Melbourne and too busy to write much, so it will have to be a retro one instead.  I was in Melbourne for primarily non-election reasons, staying in the electorate of Deakin with trips to several surrounding electorates.  I didn't see quite as much electoral activity as I expected at this early stage, though while on a bus through Warrandyte I did happen to look out the window and see the Member for Menzies at a fair.  

It's becoming better known in media circles that the once much anticipated "budget bounce" in polling is an elusive beast that is seldom sighted outside Coalition government election years, and there was less speculation about it this year than usual.  My own aggregate has found very little movement in the post-Budget polls, and such overall movement as it has found (Labor losing 0.1% since the end of last week) is because of the way it is responding to Morgan's recent strong results for Labor.  

Legislative Council Voting Patterns 2021-25

A strange thing happened in the LegCo on the 20th of November last year.  In debate about the Expungement of Historical Offences Amendment Bill 2024 the major parties differed in their approach to setting compensation for victims of Tasmania's infamous former anti-gay laws (which were repealed in 1997).  The Greens had successfully moved an amendment regarding compensation levels to the Government's Bill in the Assembly and the Goverment wanted to move a different amendment on that subject in the Council.  Ruth Forrest moved that the issue be referred to the Gender and Equity Committee but Labor disagreed, arguing that the Council should be able to deal with the issue itself.  In the end the referral motion passed 8-5 with Government support but three independents joining Labor.  

What is unusual about that?  Well, in the last year it was one of only two cases I could find where the ALP, the official "Opposition", had voted against the Rockliff Liberal Government in a division on the floor of the Council, the other being an attempt by the government to adjourn a debate on Development Assessment Panels (nobody but the government wanted to adjourn it).  A year in which the Government and Opposition voted together on 90% of recorded divisions in the Council highlighted an increasing trend towards "Laborial" politics in Tasmania, something I also picked up on last year and that has been growing since 2020.  There are signs of a similar dynamic downstairs though I haven't yet assessed the voting patterns there.  When independent Kristie Johnston declared recently for the second time that she had no confidence in the government, the charge to attack her for supposedly undermining business confidence with stunt motions was led not by the Liberal Party but by Labor's Josh Willie.  

Poll Roundup: Coalition Support Slides In Pre-Budget Polling

2PP Aggregate (Last-Election Preferences) 51.1 to ALP (+1.5 in last four weeks)
With One Nation Adjustment (Recommended) 50.5 to ALP
If polls are on average accurate, Labor would almost certainly win election "held now", probably in minority

In the four weeks since my previous instalment there's been a substantial shift in national polling and Labor has recaptured the lead in both versions of my 2PP aggregate.  Although not every poll in that time has supported the shift, the trend is overall so well supported that when Morgan came out with a 54.5-45.5 to Labor outlier on Monday, the three polls later in the week did scarcely anything to peg back the gain in my aggregate that Morgan produced.  Looking at primary vote aggregates the culprit here is the Coalition primary.  Of the six polls that polled at least once both prior to 25 Feb and since 25 Feb, on average the Coalition primary is 1.6% lower since 25 Feb, though much of the gain went to independents and non-Green minor parties.  The most recent polls are carrying a heavy weighting in my aggregate because there are so many of them, and the suggestion for now is that Labor's lead is continuing to build. However it is Budget week, and these are not the best of times for trying to use a Budget to fuel electoral success as the Coalition has often done in the past. One of the reasons that I want to put this article out now (and update it with polls that come out entirely before the Budget) is to have a clear baseline for where things stood before the Budget did its thing.  (A brief refresher: Budget bounces in polls rarely happen - on average following a Budget a government goes slightly backwards).  

Western Australia 2025 Legislative Assembly Postcount

SEATS WON ALP 46 LIB 7 NAT 6 

(Liberal win in Kalamunda subject to recount)

This is a relatively brief thread to update where the WA 2025 lower house postcount is at.  Because I was playing chess all weekend and then spent a day recovering from dehydration (oh yes chess is a sport) I have been slow getting onto this, but given how slow the counting is, I've hardly missed anything! 

As I start there are 51 seats the ABC has called (42 ALP 5 Lib 4 Nat).  I don't see any reason to doubt any of these (there is some weirdness in Geraldton where the Independent Shane van Styn might be more of a threat to the Nationals had not both the Liberals and Labor recommended preferences against him).  Of the eight the ABC shows as in doubt, I am also firmly expecting Labor to win:

Fremantle (ALP vs GRN 14.4%)  Here independent Kate Hulett won the ordinary booths 51.9-48.1 vs Labor's Simone McGurk but her chances have been wrecked by absent votes (56.8 to ALP - "absent" in WA includes out of electorate prepolls) and postals (59.8 to ALP).  These are common weak spots for independents but this is an extreme case because the Liberals recommended preferences to Labor.  Hulett is 342 behind (50.8 to ALP) and isn't likely to break even on remaining postals either.  She has flagged a possible challenge, I believe over voting day issues such as booths running out of ballot papers.  [Update Friday: 491 votes the margin now.]

Western Australia 2025 Legislative Council Postcount

WA LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL: 37 SEATS

EXPECTED SEATS ALP 15 LIB 10 NAT 2 GRN 4 ON 1 LCP 1 AC 1

Apparent final three seats battle: Labor (16), Moermond, Animal Justice, One Nation (2), Liberal (11), Greens (5), perhaps Sustainable Australia.  

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If you find my coverage useful please consider donating to support the large amount of time I spend working on this site.  The sidebar (scroll down and click on "view web version" if viewing via mobile) has Paypal or PayID instructions or email me via the address in my profile for my account details.  Please only donate if you are sure you can afford to do so.
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Updates (Scrolling to the top)

Aprl 18th: After several delays the count finally finished.  The winners of the seats in doubt were One Nation, Labor and Animal Justice.  One Nation zoomed on preferences (especially SFF) while Animal Justice beat Moermond for the final seat by 1391 votes (0.09%, not particularly close given how close the parties were).  

Wednesday 2nd: After several days of inaction a sudden dump sees the count advance to 83.14%, suggesting something around 2.3% could be BTLs which is more in line with expectations.  This has seen the Liberals jump back into 36th place ahead of Moermond but with the reservation noted by Antony Green.

Western Australia 2025 Live

WA 2025 - STARTING POSITION (Notional) ALP 54 Nat 3 Lib 2

LABOR RE-ELECTED, Lib/Nat on track for about 13 seats

Seats appparently changing: 

Lib/Nat gain from ALP: Churchlands (2.2%), Carine (4%), Kalamunda (15.1%), Albany (10.7%),  Geraldton (9.3%),  Nedlands (3.0%)

Labor projecting behind in own seats: Murray-Wellington (17.3%), Warren-Blackwood (2.2%)

Interesting: ALP vs IND Fremantle (I project ALP ahead)

Updates will appear below the dotted line, scrolling to the top.  Refresh every 10 mins or so for updates

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Western Australia 2025: Final Polls Predict Another Drubbing

Note for Saturday night:  I have a clash with a chess tournament on the weekend and it is not clear whether or not I will be able to do live coverage or how much, though the time difference helps. If there is live coverage it may start late.  If I can do live coverage there will be a thread that I will keep open for a few days and then aim to have a more detailed look at how the Legislative Council contest is going (if still interesting) on Monday evening or Tuesday.  

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This will be a pretty quick post but I should note the two polls released today re the WA state election.  The campaign opened with a 56-44 Newspoll and some degree of narrowing from there would not have been a huge surprise, but two polls out today have slightly more lopsided readings.  The two sets of numbers are in fact as good as identical:  Newspoll has 57.5-42.5 off primaries of Labor 44 Liberal 29 Nationals 5 Green 10 One Nation 3 others 9.  DemosAU has 57-43 off Labor 43 Liberal 30 Nationals 5 Greens 11 and others (which includes One Nation) 11.   So between them about a 12.5% swing back.  

Prospects for the 2025 Senate Election

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This is a general (and maths-heavy) piece giving assessments of the 2025 half-Senate election in each state and territory and overall. A detailed Senate guide for Tasmania will be released soon after the announcement of nominations for the state.  Firstly, a look at which Senate seats are up for grabs at this election and which are continuing until 2028 (barring a double dissolution):

At present Labor holds 25 of the 76 seats.  Labor can pass legislation supported by the Greens (11 seats) and any three of a crossbench of 11.  The crossbench consists of David Pocock, ex-Greens defector Lidia Thorpe, ex-Labor defector Fatima Payman, Jacqui Lambie, ex-Lambie defector Tammy Tyrrell, two One Nation Senators, Ralph Babet (UAP, which still exists for parliamentary purposes), and two ex-Coalition defectors. The ability to block enquiries, motions and disallowances in the Senate is also very important and hereLabor and the Greens combined need two votes.

Lyons Recount 2025

LYONS Hare-Clark vacancy for seat held by Rebecca White (ALP)
Cause of vacancy: resignation to run for federal parliament
Labor will win the recount, winnning candidate to be determined.

Casey Farrell vs Ben Dudman with Farrell leading into final exclusion.

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Updates to be posted in this section, scrolling to the top

COUNTING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT UNTIL A RESULT IS KNOWN

7:40 FINAL - CASEY FARRELL WINS BY 242 VOTES.  Farrell made a small further gain on the last throw.