Cause of vacancy: resignation to run for federal parliament
Labor will win the recount, winnning candidate to be determined.
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Today is the day the Tasmanian Electoral Commission commences the "recount" (officially Tasmanian for countback) for a seat in Lyons, vacated by former Labor leader Rebecca White after she resigned to run for the equivalent federal seat. Labor will be getting some new blood in the next few days. With parliament resuming tomorrow they would be keen for the recount to finish quickly so the new member can be sworn in. The consent period for nominations closes at midday today with counting to begin immediately after; the TEC says "a final result is expected in the days to follow". On past form I would be impressed if the recount is wrapped today (because of the number of votes and the potential for three large exclusions to be needed to decide the winner) but they rarely take longer than two days. It may be that by the end of today we at least have a clear leader.
Normally I would cover this on the same thread where I initially analysed the recount, but that one was way back in November so I've decided to bring this one to the top. Updates will scroll to the top of the article when anything is known.
This is what I wrote in November:
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The recount will be based solely on the votes White had when elected, which is all her primary votes. The fact that Richard Goss was the last Labor candidate standing in the original count is irrelevant. The winner will surely be one of the five unsuccessful Labor candidates. Based on White's cutup, it is known they will start the recount with at least the following votes:
Casey Farrell 10.1%
Richard Goss 9.0%
Carole McQueeney 8.9%
Edwin Batt 8.3%
35.1% of White's votes flowed to Jen Butler who was elected and 16.4% leaked to non-Labor candidates (mostly Jacqui Lambie Network, Greens and Liberal candidates in fairly even proportions). It is not known where any of these votes went next. It would not be that surprising if the White-Butler votes helped McQueeney by including an element voting specifically for female Labor candidates. Candidates from other parties can nominate for the recount but all of them will be cut out before any of the Labor candidates are, leaving as many Labor candidates as nominate to fight out the seat. Then it will simply be a race on preferences to determine the winner.
For those trying to predict this mess it's worth knowing that the vote for Labor minor candidates was highly regionalised, with Farrell the highest scorer behind White in the Derwent Valley, McQueeney on the east coast, Batt in the Southern Midlands, Goss in the Northern Midlands and Dudman in most of Meander Valley (though Goss did better in some Launceston area Meander Valley booths). Four are councillors for these LGAs (the exception is Farrell). I analysed the primary votes for these candidates weighted by how many votes White got in the booths and other vote groups where they got votes and on that analysis Goss came out slightly ahead of Dudman. But it may be that voters who voted for White are more likely to be younger voters who also liked Dudman whereas Goss had more appeal to an older demographic, which could explain why Dudman gets more White preferences directly than Goss does. (This factor can also help Farrell).
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