Sunday, May 2, 2021

2021 Tasmanian Postcount: Franklin

 (Link to main 2021 page including link to other postcount threads)

FRANKLIN (2018 Result 2 Labor 2 Liberal 1 Green)

ALL SEATS CALLED: 2-2-1, Jacquie Petrusma and Nic Street (Lib) re-elected, David O'Byrne (Labor) re-elected, Rosalie Woodruff (Greens) re-elected, Dean Winter (Labor) replaces Alison Standen (Labor)

There is no suspense about the count in Franklin: all the incumbents have won except that Alison Standen has lost heavily to Dean Winter and David O'Byrne in a within-party contest.  Winter's campaign was initially blocked by left unionist elements in the party and this was only overturned by federal intervention (at the behest of another union that took exception to the claim Winter wasn't Labor-y enough).  The result confirms the utter senselessness of leaving Winter off the Labor ticket for even five minutes and Labor should identify those irresponsible and ensure they don't get asked to pick the squad again.  

Not only has Winter won, but he is currently leading O'Byrne by 450 votes, though O'Byrne may well catch up on preferences from other Labor candidates and the Greens.  Which of Winter and O'Byrne gets over the line first is the only remaining interest here, though even being outpolled on primaries by Winter isn't the result O'Byrne would have been looking for.  

As for the Liberals, they've copped a whacking from the absence of Will Hodgman.  Petrusma has a quota and Street is far enough ahead of Enders and Dean Young that he will not have trouble getting back.  The Greens have done well here given the ideological spread of Labor's ticket and have increased their vote, returning Woodruff easily.  

Friday: With more votes added, Winter now leads O'Byrne by 319.  

There have been some impressed comments about Petrusma's vote (now on 1.26 quotas) but in fact this is down substantially on the 1.52 quotas she would have got had all Will Hodgman's #1 votes in 2018 been redistributed at full value.  Street is also down on the same basis (0.76 to 0.50 quotas) so both have been affected by votes for other Liberal candidates and probably some overall loss of votes caused by not having Hodgman there.  

Tuesday: Won't be paying this one as much attention as some but anyway final primaries are up and Winter outpolled O'Byrne on primaries by 321.  Will O'Byrne catch him on preferences?

1:39 Petrusma surplus thrown and Street is around 3000 clear of Enders; there will now be minor exclusions for quite a while before anyone is elected.  Winter lead 315. 

4:45 Cangelosi exclusion now so the first within-ticket exclusion to see if O'Byrne starts catching up.

5:01 A 16.5% leak out of the Labor ticket there (could have been worse) and O'Byrne makes only a very small gain and remains 309 behind.

Wednesday 1:00 A very large gain for O'Byrne off Toby Thorpe and he is now 10 votes behind Winter. It is very likely the preferences from Brumby and Standen will also favour him and that he will be the first Labor winner elected, or at least the one with the largest surplus.

2:30 O'Byrne has now taken the lead.  There is now a throw of Green preferences which will be interesting in terms of the Labor/Liberal/exhaust break.  Currently Verrier (Green) has 2519, Labor 24257, Liberals 30495.

5:20 Split from Greens was 61.6% Labor 10.2% Liberal 28.2% exhaust.  On a two-party basis 85.8% of the non-exhausting votes to Labor, so similar to the 2018 state split.

5:36 O'Byrne 387 ahead of Winter now after Brumby.

Thursday 2:06 Standen excluded and her votes will elect O'Byrne, Winter and Street (all these if not directly then on surpluses) leaving Enders sixth.

3:15 Quite surprisingly, Winter gets back in front of O'Byrne on Standen's preferences and is elected 3, O'Byrne 4, Street 5 all on the same count.

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