2024 Tasmanian State Election Guide: Franklin

This is the Franklin electorate guide for the 2024 Tasmanian State Election.  (Link to main 2024 election preview page, including links to other electorates.)  If you find these guides useful, donations are very welcome (see sidebar), but please only donate in these difficult times if you can afford to do so.  Note: if using a mobile you may need to use the view web version option at the bottom of the page to see the sidebar.  

Franklin (Currently 2 Liberal 1 Labor 1 Green 1 IND)

(Elected at last election 2 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green)

Eastern shore Hobart (Clarence City), much of Kingborough, Huon Valley, D'Entrecasteaux Channel

Urban/outer urban/treechange/rural

Candidates (31)

Note to candidates: As the number of candidates becomes large, continually changing link and bio details could consume a lot of my time.  It's up to you to get your act together and have your candidacy advertised on a good website that I can find easily well ahead of the election.  On emailed or Twitter request I may make one free website link change per candidate at my discretion; fees will be charged beyond that.  Bio descriptions and other text will not be changed on request except to remove any material that is indisputably false.   

Where a link is available, a candidate's name is used as a hyperlink.  Emails from candidates who do not understand this will be ignored. 

I am not listing full portfolios for each MP, only the most notable positions.  Candidates are listed incumbent-first by position/seniority and then alphabetically, except if stated otherwise. 

The ballot order for Franklin is Greens, Liberal, O'Byrne, JLN, AJP, Mulder, Labor, Glade-Wright, Local Network, ungrouped.  Candidates within each column are rotated where there is more than one candidate.

Liberal

Nic Street, incumbent, Minister for Housing, Construction, Sport and Rec, Stadia (yep) etc

Dean Young, first-term incumbent elected on recount, backbencher, newsagent

Eric Abetz, Liberal Senator for Tasmania 1994-2022, Senate Leader for Abbott Govt, famous uberconservative

Aldo Antolli, CEO Pathways Tasmania, Kingborough councillor, Huon candidate 2022

Josh Garvin, President Tas and Vice-President Aus Young Liberals, staffer for Madeleine Ogilvie

Jock McGregor aka Michael McGregor, football operations manager Kingborough Tigers, former footballer and coach

Jacquie Petrusma, MHA for this seat 2010-2022, minister in 3 Liberal govts, advisor to Premier 

Antolli stated in a Kingborough Council meeting in late 2023 that he believed in climate change but was not a believer in "anthropogenic" climate change.

Labor

Dean Winter, first-term incumbent, Shadow Minister Energy, Finance, Economic Development, Racing

Ebony Altimira, Business Transformation Lead at MyState, former President Tasmanian Rugby Union

Simon Bailey, Education Manager TasTAFE, AEU TAFE President, past teacher/tradie

Meg Brown, former Sorell Councillor, staffer for David O'Byrne, party branch president/treasurer

Kaspar Deane, Kingborough Councillor, public school teacher

Philip Pregnell, corrections supervisor, UWU Tas Prison Service delegate, past national Apex president

Toby Thorpe, Deputy Mayor Huon Valley, 2021 Tasmanian Young Australian of the Year, climate/renewables advocate, previous candidate

Greens 

Rosalie Woodruff, Greens Leader, incumbent, epidemiologist (Ph.D.) (lead candidate)

Gideon Cordover, Kingborough Councillor, NIDA graduate, past candidate including Huon 2022

Jade Darko,  Clarence Councillor, 2019-22 federal candidate, software engineer

Owen Fitzgerald, organised climate school strikes in 2022

Jenny Cambers-Smith, Huon Valley Councillor, business and content writer, wildlife video filmer

Lukas Mrosek, "professional background in building design"

Christine Campbell, former Huon Councillor, "business woman, community volunteer and academic"

Independents With Own Groups

David O'Byrne, incumbent, former prominent unionist, briefly Labor leader in 2021, disendorsed by party

Clare Glade-Wright, Deputy Mayor of Kingborough, former eco-tourism operator

Tony Mulder, Independent Liberal MLC Rumney 2011-7, Clarence councillor, estranged from Liberals since 2018, serial upper house candidate

Jacqui Lambie Network

Marshall Callaghan, child safety worker and former Defence social worker

Chris Hannan, relationship therapist and clinical supervisor, own business

Conor Hallahan. Engineering, procurement and construction manager for COVA large machinery firm

Surely the most poetic list of surnames a ticket has assembled since the days of federal Labor's "Four As."  

Local Network

Martine Delaney, high-profile LGBTIQA+ advocate, Greens candidate Franklin 2016 federal

Anna Spinaze was announced as a candidate but did not run

Animal Justice Party

Jehni Thomas-Worth, retired (librarian/information science), 2022 support Senate candidate

Ungrouped Independents

Tamar Cordover, works in empowering rural women with disabilities

Bob Elliston, retired, wildlife sanctuary owner, candidate in 1998, frequent Mercury letters author

David O'Byrne Deselection

A significant change in Franklin that warrants its own guide section is the deselection of David O'Byrne, former Labor leader. O'Byrne was Labor MP for this seat 2010-2014, was defeated at the 2014 election, and was elected again in 2018 and 2021.  In my view, "hard left" forces supporting O'Byrne were the biggest culprits for the faction-fights and incidents that marred the party's 2021 campaign.  After the 2021 election Rebecca White resigned the leadership and endorsed O'Byrne, who defeated Shane Broad in a member/delegate ballot with nearly three-quarters of the vote.  However O'Byrne's leadership lasted just weeks before he was brought down by a scandal involving unsolicited kissing of and text messages to a 22-year old union staffer working for him in 2007-8, before his parliamentary career.  (O'Byrne said that he had thought this was consensual but was later caused to "reflect deeply on the nature of consent".) He was also accused of giving the staffer a performance warning after being asked to desist.  

An investigation found O'Byrne's behaviour to have been "inappropriate and wrong" but to have not breached party rules and no further action was taken by the broader party.  O'Byrne says that the report (which is not public) found he had not engaged in harassment or victimisation as defined in party policy. The complainant rejected the report's findings and processes but O'Byrne's summary of what the report contains has not to my knowledge been challenged.  

O'Byrne resigned from the parliamentary party (which appeared set to otherwise expel him from caucus anyway) and for the rest of the term has sat as an "independent Labor" member, still a member of the broader party but recognised by the Parliament as an independent.  During this time he has been an active representative on traditional Labor community issues, but his fate has distracted the party, with differing opinions even among the federal executive about whether to let him back.  Finally and as a result of Rebecca White's firm stance against reselecting O'Byrne, the national executive endorsed a full ticket that omitted him.  O'Byrne has now quit the Labor Party completely and is running as an independent.  Any Labor member who assists him will be in breach of party rules and risks expulsion.

The Government has attacked Labor for not endorsing O'Byrne, but would also have attacked them if they did endorse him, and rather potently so in the days of #metoo and the Commission of Inquiry.  The real problem for Labor is that having allowed O'Byrne to remain in the broader party throughout, they have sent a message that it was all no big deal really, and created a big mystery as to why he has not been taken back.  

Prospects for Franklin

Franklin is a left-leaning seat at federal level where it has been Labor-held since 1993, but at state level the difference between it and the northern seats is less pronounced.  Votes in Franklin in 2021 were Liberal 42.3%, Labor 33.2%, Greens 18.9%.  Under the 35-seat system this would have been a 3-3-1 result.  Results in previous elections would have been 3-3-1 in 2018 (close to 4-2-1), 4-2-1 in 2014, 3-2-2 in 2010 and 2-4-1 in 2006.  

At the last election Petrusma polled nearly 1.7 quotas for the new system in her own right.  This will be down because of the competition from Abetz and perhaps her temporary retirement but the Liberal team looks strong if Petrusma is a serious candidate.  Abetz is popular in parts of the electorate as witnessed by his high 2022 Senate below the line votes in parts of Kingborough (especially the southern parts of Kingston/Blackmans Bay) - an area which has an element of "bible belt" voting but which still voted Yes in the Voice referendum.  Street has had his first full term as a Minister, his performance has been well regarded and he appeals to moderates.  I think the Liberals' prospects of three here are good unless the wheels fall off but I don't see who they beat to get more.  Although their ticket is strong in experience terms it suffers from a serious gender imbalance with only one woman out of seven.  

Labor has only one incumbent, Winter, who will get a lot of votes, but it will suffer from the loss of O'Byrne, who polled almost a quota in his own right last time.  Some of O'Byrne's past votes will come back to other Labor candidates but it would be heroic to put Labor on three seats as the campaign starts; seems much more likely two.  I suppose after Clark 2021 I shouldn't totally write off that O'Byrne leaving and new fourth party competition knocks Labor down to one, but that does seem very unlikely. Polling suggests most likely two and out.  Assuming Labor win at least two, they get a new MP - young talents Kaspar Deane and Toby Thorpe are contenders here but I wouldn't write off some of the others either.  All of Deane, Thorpe and Winter are from the western side of the disjunct electorate; Meg Brown is one whose profile is more on the eastern side.  

The Greens will win one, and their second candidate could ride high in the count for a while after Woodruff is elected.  Their only pathway to two seems to be O'Byrne flopping.  

It's generally expected that O'Byrne will get a sympathy vote and romp in, with the Fontcast even joking about whether he could win two seats.  The polling on independents for Franklin has been pretty spotty making O'Byrne's seat no guarantee but it would be brave to confidently predict failure.  

Unusually among medium-profile independents, Glade-Wright started running several months ago but she has lately been overshadowed by O'Byrne.  Her council covers about a third of the voter base and she is a good fit for the inner eastern shore too.  Views differ - some see her as a potential winner and others as not a significant contender.  The arguments here are firstly Clark has very high indie voting and the virus could spread to Franklin, and secondly that community-independent style campaigning might work here as it has worked in the teal seats.  I am wary of the latter because in Tasmania there is no strategic reason for a Labor or Greens voter to switch.   Mulder also has profile but mostly in Clarence these days and it's a crowded field.

Finally, the Lambie Network tend to poll worse in Franklin than the northern seats but did get half a state quota in the Senate election.  I'll be surprised if they get close in this field unless they have a really strong result statewide, but a glimmer of a chance has been seen in some polling breakdowns.  

Outlook for Franklin (will revise later): Other things could happen but the lead contender is 3-2-1-0-1 (O'Byrne).