My estimate 13-14 Liberal 10-12 ALP 4-5 Green 2-3 JLN 2-6 IND
The second Tasmanian campaign poll by an established and known pollster is out, with Victorian-centred outfit Redbridge releasing its first ever public poll of Tasmanian voting intention. The sample size is smallish (753 voters) and the sample is spread out over two weeks (Feb 14-28).
They have also released these combined breakdowns: Bass/Braddon/Lyons Liberal 35 Labor 27 Green 11 JLN 14 Other 14, Clark/Franklin Liberal 30 Labor 31 Greens 18 JLN 4 (ie 8 in Franklin as not running in Clark) Other 17
There is more to come on this poll, including one of the most amusing crosstabs you will ever see, but for now just a quick note on the voting intention numbers. The Redbridge numbers are significantly worse for the Liberals than both the EMRS public poll and the huge-sample mystery poll of unknown veracity and quality, and very similar to the YouGov poll from January, except that they have treated the Lambie and IND/others votes more normally. (They've only listed parties in seats they are running in.)
Redbridge have released a seat estimate of 12 Liberal 11 Labor 6 Green 3 JLN 3 Independent based on modelling off mini-samples. I would expect off these state primaries (based on testing them against my model of the recent EMRS breakdowns) that the Greens would not do quite so well; six seats off 14% would be very lucky. I got estimates of 13-14 Liberal, 10-12 ALP, 4-5 Green, 2-3 JLN and 2-6 IND for these numbers.
A couple of notes regarding my estimates. Firstly JLN could be very vulnerable to leakage because they have not run clear lead candidates and some of their votes will be for people who know and like one of their candidates but not others. A single Independent starting 2% or even more behind a JLN ticket could very well run them down. JLN will also be at risk of losing votes to unintended informal voting, though I estimate the extra impact of that on them will be about 0.2% per seat.
Secondly it's often difficult to convert projected Independent/other votes to seats because the missing piece of the puzzle is how concentrated is that vote in one or two lead candidates. That's why I am often getting broad-range estimates like 2-6 Independent seats in my models.
If this poll were accurate, the Liberals would be the largest party but would need to work with either several independents or a mix of independents and JLN to govern, they could end up with their own "coalition [sic] of chaos". Labor would be unlikely to have a path to government that did not go through the Greens. It would be quite a fascinating parliament.
Redbridge is still a relatively new poll on the public polling scene, albeit one with decent results overall so far. Its findings are sometimes quirky. EMRS has a long and good track record here and a larger sample size. Nonetheless this is an interesting polling data point to add.
The AFR report refers to claimed internal Liberal polling, but that is in fact the EMRS public poll.
The AFR article also features more baffling Jacqui Lambie pronouncements (albeit some paraphrased) including that her candidates are 'all political cleanskins' (yeah right one was a Tory mayor in England) and 'have been forced to rule out making a play for the ministry within their first 12 months' (how?). We also get “But we have told them that we don’t do preference deals. We want voters to number all three boxes with Lambie candidates,” Er, nobody does preference deals in Hare-Clark and the voters have to number at least seven. (By the way this is not the first time JLN have contested, they also did in 2018).
Full report
The full report is here. The most hilarious crosstab (albeit based on only about 75 intending JLN voters is that 40% of intending Jacqui Lambie Network voters (more than any other party bar the Greens) say policies will be a major factor affecting their vote. JLN has been attracting much criticism for being just about a policy-free zone.
The AFR also mentions that the JLN are running in their first state election campaign which is also not true - they ran in 2018 also (and only received 3% of the vote).
ReplyDeleteMulti party mess describes it well.... if the opinion polls are broadly right.. no 2 parties will get 18 seats.so govt could well include 3 or more parties or independents
ReplyDelete