This is the late night live blog that fills the void between me finishing my Mercury coverage and unrolling all the seat pages. It will be used for quick updates over the next hour or so.
(Updates scrolling to top - refresh now and then)
1:30 Bass is final for night and I nearly have my page for it done.
12:54 An update in Franklin where the Liberals and O'Byrne have moved further ahead of the Greens.
12:48 Finally action in Bass where a first tranche of postals has done very little to the picture and improved JLN's chances but we need to see what the big prepolls do there.
12:30 An update is through in Clark and Labor have almost matched the Greens total - this is going to be an interesting one! Note that Helen Burnet has a high personal vote and a high profile and might do well off independent preferences.
12:25 The count in Bass appears to be stuck or have stopped with no web updates since around 10 pm. A small update in Lyons with Labor just in front of JLN on notional quotas. The Greens have dropped back a little but only need to beat one of these two.
12:10 A note on count progress: Provisionally the TEC will finish tomorrow whatever it doesn't get done tonight as concerns prepolls and early postal batches. After tomorrow it does not expect to post new figures until Thursday, and then it will be working Easter Monday prior to the start of the preference distribution the day after.
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12:05 A summary of the current situation: The Liberals have 13 seats and appear likely to win a fourth in Braddon and third in Franklin, but both of these depend on postals and prepolls going their way as is often the case. I am not seeing any path for them above 15.
Labor has not done as badly as some feared. They appear to have 10 seats with a reasonable chance of picking up a third in Lyons and a chance in Clark, though the Greens are ahead in Clark for now. They also have a ghost of a chance in Bass but the Liberals are almost certainly to be the largest party.
The Greens seem to have had a pretty good election but will be hanging on to see what happens with the outstanding postals and prepolls. I can't see any risk to them in Bass, they are looking very good in Lyons at present but need to see if they can hold their position, and they are leading in the race with Labor for the last seat in Clark but that one has a long way to go.
The Jacqui Lambie Network has underperformed the polls a little but not terribly. They appear to have won in Braddon and are probably winning in Bass but might be at risk from Labor there with more counting. The disappointing seat for them is Lyons where they've dropped back into a race with Labor and look shaky.
Only two independents appear to be winning, Kristie Johnston in Clark and David O'Byrne in Franklin. Generally the independent vote has fallen short of expectations, especially in the north.
Jeremy Rockliff claimed victory tonight but it is too soon as we need to see what the parliament looks like and what his paths to 18 seats are.
Hi Kevin
ReplyDeleteThanks for your commentary
I am wondering about the Animal Justice Party, couldn't we assume that most of their vote will go to the Greens?
By the way Rockliff's speech was really jumping the gun, Labor Greens and independents might well be able to govern by agreement, even without Lambie
I'll be looking at that in detail when I come to seat pages, The vote of any minor party does spray but the Greens are quite likely to get some gain out of it.
ReplyDeleteThanks Kevin
DeleteRegarding the result in general I think we should regard this in terms of Liberals aligned vs non-Liberal aligned, not Liberal vs Labor. If we do then the vote is very close indeed, and in fact possible a win for the non-Liberal aligned forces