Franklin 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 in doubt between Green and Liberal
Re-elected: Hodgman (Lib), presumably Petrusma (Lib)
Returns to parliament: D O'Byrne (Labor)
New MP: Standen (Labor)
Contest between parties: Woodruff (Green) vs Street (Lib) - Woodruff has won by 226 votes.
Welcome to another postcount thread that I will update through the next two weeks, this one for Franklin. And this one could be very close.
In Franklin, the Liberals' remarkable minimisation of the swing against them has kept them in the hunt for a three-seat result. However, with Labor rebuilding to over two quotas, it has turned out to be the Greens' Rosalie Woodruff who is in danger of missing out.
Sunday, March 4, 2018
2018 Tasmanian Postcount: Denison
Denison 2 Labor 2 Liberal 1 Green
Re-elected: Bacon (ALP), Archer (Lib), O'Connor (Green)
New MP: Hickey (Lib)
Within party contest: Haddad (ALP) vs Ogilvie (ALP). CALLED: Haddad will win.
There was much interest in the final week of the campaign in Denison. The possibility sprang up that the seat might rip up the script by delivering three seats to Labor. This has, in the end, fallen about a further 6% swing short of happening, so it really wasn't all that close. The Liberal vote, bolstered by the preselection of Sue Hickey to replace Matthew Groom, has held up well clear of two quotas.
Re-elected: Bacon (ALP), Archer (Lib), O'Connor (Green)
New MP: Hickey (Lib)
Within party contest: Haddad (ALP) vs Ogilvie (ALP). CALLED: Haddad will win.
There was much interest in the final week of the campaign in Denison. The possibility sprang up that the seat might rip up the script by delivering three seats to Labor. This has, in the end, fallen about a further 6% swing short of happening, so it really wasn't all that close. The Liberal vote, bolstered by the preselection of Sue Hickey to replace Matthew Groom, has held up well clear of two quotas.
2018 Tasmania Postcount: Braddon
Braddon 3 Liberal 2 Labor
Re-elected: Rockliff (Lib), Brooks (Lib), Broad (ALP)
New MP: Dow (ALP)
Within Party Contest: Jaensch (Lib) vs Rylah (Lib) - CALLED Jaensch will win
(Update: Jaensch has won)
Welcome to my second postcount thread and this one will be very short, at least until the updates start! In Braddon, there has been a 2.5% swing against the Liberals coming off their four-seat result in 2014. The Liberals have 3.38 quotas, Labor have 1.64 quotas and the rest is scattered among the Lambie Network, the Greens, the Shooters and ungrouped, none of whom can win. Among the allsorts a hugely impressive performance is the 1912 votes polled by independent fisherman Craig Garland. Garland has almost single-handedly outpolled the Greens, who have polled a miserable 3.3%, with Scott Jordan a poor choice of lead candidate. Another fizzer was former MP Brenton Best, who didn't seem to run any campaign to speak of and has recorded an embarrassing 568 votes so far.
Re-elected: Rockliff (Lib), Brooks (Lib), Broad (ALP)
New MP: Dow (ALP)
Within Party Contest: Jaensch (Lib) vs Rylah (Lib) - CALLED Jaensch will win
(Update: Jaensch has won)
Welcome to my second postcount thread and this one will be very short, at least until the updates start! In Braddon, there has been a 2.5% swing against the Liberals coming off their four-seat result in 2014. The Liberals have 3.38 quotas, Labor have 1.64 quotas and the rest is scattered among the Lambie Network, the Greens, the Shooters and ungrouped, none of whom can win. Among the allsorts a hugely impressive performance is the 1912 votes polled by independent fisherman Craig Garland. Garland has almost single-handedly outpolled the Greens, who have polled a miserable 3.3%, with Scott Jordan a poor choice of lead candidate. Another fizzer was former MP Brenton Best, who didn't seem to run any campaign to speak of and has recorded an embarrassing 568 votes so far.
2018 Tasmania Postcount: Bass
Bass 3 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 undecided
Re-Elected: Gutwein (Lib), Ferguson (Lib), Courtney (Lib), M O'Byrne (Labor)
Contest Between Parties: Dawkins (Green) vs Houston (ALP)
Houston has won
Warning: The Bass contest is mathematically complex. This article is rated at Wonk Factor 4/5.
Welcome to the first of my post-counting threads from the Tasmanian state election, which will follow the post-count in the seat of Bass. These articles will be edited and updated as the counts progress.
Bass is the (doubtless expensive) jewel in the crown of the Liberals' blowout win tonight - they are currently running at a 1.7% swing to them in Bass, an amazing result. With 85.7% counted, the Liberals have 3.53 quotas, Labor have 1.59, the Greens have 0.54 and the Jacqui Lambie Network have 0.28. There's also 550 votes (0.05 quotas) for anti-Green independent Brett Lucas. Labor's notional lead on primaries over the Greens is 455 votes.
Re-Elected: Gutwein (Lib), Ferguson (Lib), Courtney (Lib), M O'Byrne (Labor)
Contest Between Parties: Dawkins (Green) vs Houston (ALP)
Houston has won
Warning: The Bass contest is mathematically complex. This article is rated at Wonk Factor 4/5.
Welcome to the first of my post-counting threads from the Tasmanian state election, which will follow the post-count in the seat of Bass. These articles will be edited and updated as the counts progress.
Bass is the (doubtless expensive) jewel in the crown of the Liberals' blowout win tonight - they are currently running at a 1.7% swing to them in Bass, an amazing result. With 85.7% counted, the Liberals have 3.53 quotas, Labor have 1.59, the Greens have 0.54 and the Jacqui Lambie Network have 0.28. There's also 550 votes (0.05 quotas) for anti-Green independent Brett Lucas. Labor's notional lead on primaries over the Greens is 455 votes.
Saturday, March 3, 2018
Election Night Link
I'm on The Mercury live at http://www.themercury.com.au/news/politics/tasmania-votes-state-election-blog-with-political-analyst-kevin-bonham/news-story/b905453626bd37b54b037962f31706ff . It's paywalled (unknown to me beforehand as I didn't ask, but I believe you can sign up for $1 for 28 days if you can't see it.) Coverage will start sometime between now and 6:30.
I may make comments now and then on Twitter: @kevinbonham but my efforts will be mainly devoted to the Mercury site. I am happy for people to pass on my comments from the site.
My condolences to the friends, family and political colleagues of Dr Vanessa Goodwin, who passed away today. I did not know Vanessa personally but had great respect for her.
I may make comments now and then on Twitter: @kevinbonham but my efforts will be mainly devoted to the Mercury site. I am happy for people to pass on my comments from the site.
My condolences to the friends, family and political colleagues of Dr Vanessa Goodwin, who passed away today. I did not know Vanessa personally but had great respect for her.
The Liberals Have 170 Secret Policies
(Note: this article currently appears out of order and with one paragraph missing because I mistakenly saved a draft over it. The on-the-day coverage thread is below)
Yesterday I gave Labor and the Greens a serve for trying to take the moral high ground on campaign donations when their "attempt" to reform them in the previous parliament had been a token, late, poorly considered politicised flop. Today - which happens to be election day, ho ho - it's the Liberal Party's turn.
On one of the strangest final days of a campaign that I can recall, the Liberals were forced into damage control after it became known that they had a policy of relaxing various gun laws. However, rather than release this policy for public discussion, it had been provided to a firearms consultations group on 9 February. The letter surfaced only on the final day of the campaign, after being posted on a shooting website.
Yesterday I gave Labor and the Greens a serve for trying to take the moral high ground on campaign donations when their "attempt" to reform them in the previous parliament had been a token, late, poorly considered politicised flop. Today - which happens to be election day, ho ho - it's the Liberal Party's turn.
On one of the strangest final days of a campaign that I can recall, the Liberals were forced into damage control after it became known that they had a policy of relaxing various gun laws. However, rather than release this policy for public discussion, it had been provided to a firearms consultations group on 9 February. The letter surfaced only on the final day of the campaign, after being posted on a shooting website.
Election Day: Blue Skies With A Fair Chance Of A Poll Fail
Welcome to my on-the-day election coverage. (See my main guide page with links to electorate pages.) I may be adding comments now and then through the day on anything I feel like commenting on. I expect this to continue up to the release of the Southern Cross exit poll around 6 pm. I will be live blogging on the Mercury tonight with coverage expected to start around 6:30. Once that goes live a link will be posted here at the top of the page. After I finish the coverage there will be comments posted here overnight - I am hoping this will include the rollout of postcount threads, but it may not.
Note for media: I won't be available for any interviews other than the Mercury between 5:30 and 11; I may be available briefly after 11. Also, tomorrow (because nobody paid me to stay at home) I will be on a field trip to Tooms Lake, will not be available for in-person interviews and may at times be out of mobile phone range.
My advice to those still to vote is simple: number all of the boxes. Even if you find you are getting into candidates you cannot stand or have never heard of, putting the lesser evils ahead of the greater evils will make your vote more powerful than if you stop. Numbering all the boxes will never disadvantage the candidates you prefer or advantage those you most dislike, because your vote only flows on to your less preferred candidates once those you most prefer have all been elected or eliminated.
Note for media: I won't be available for any interviews other than the Mercury between 5:30 and 11; I may be available briefly after 11. Also, tomorrow (because nobody paid me to stay at home) I will be on a field trip to Tooms Lake, will not be available for in-person interviews and may at times be out of mobile phone range.
My advice to those still to vote is simple: number all of the boxes. Even if you find you are getting into candidates you cannot stand or have never heard of, putting the lesser evils ahead of the greater evils will make your vote more powerful than if you stop. Numbering all the boxes will never disadvantage the candidates you prefer or advantage those you most dislike, because your vote only flows on to your less preferred candidates once those you most prefer have all been elected or eliminated.
Friday, March 2, 2018
What Happened When The Previous Government Moved To Change Tasmania's Donation Laws
I have used the word "moved" instead of "tried" in the title of this piece. There is a reason for that.
Tasmania's lax political donation and disclosure laws have become a major controversy in the Tasmanian election campaign (see guide), with the Greens threatening to move a no-confidence motion against the Hodgman government unless it discloses the campaign donations funding what seems to be a very expensive campaign. References have been made to failed attempts to reform campaign donations in the last days of the previous Labor-Green government, with Labor saying simply that the Liberals blocked them. So I thought I'd refresh my memory, and then that of anyone reading, concerning what actually happened there.
Tasmania's lax political donation and disclosure laws have become a major controversy in the Tasmanian election campaign (see guide), with the Greens threatening to move a no-confidence motion against the Hodgman government unless it discloses the campaign donations funding what seems to be a very expensive campaign. References have been made to failed attempts to reform campaign donations in the last days of the previous Labor-Green government, with Labor saying simply that the Liberals blocked them. So I thought I'd refresh my memory, and then that of anyone reading, concerning what actually happened there.
Thursday, March 1, 2018
Tasmania 2018: Commissioned Pokies ReachTEL
On 14 Feb 2018 the Australia Institute Tasmania conducted a ReachTEL poll for the 2018 state election (see guide), some questions from which have been on public display for some time. Some results on company tax cuts and donations disclosure were published some time ago and a further tranche on poker machines was published a few days back. As well as this I have obtained (with thanks to the reader who passed it on) the primary voting figures from the poll, which was taken on the night nominations for the election was announced.
Voting Intention
The voting intention figures are old rope now but may be of some interest in terms of discussions of how the campaign has unfolded. Voting intentions were Liberal 41.7 Labor 30.5 Green 11.0 JLN 4.6 Other 8.0 Undecided 4.2. What would be a staggering 68% of undecided voters said they were leaning to the Liberals, except that the effective number of undecided voters after scaling would have been just 39, giving that 68% figure a margin of error of at least 15% (even more after scaling). After redistributing the undecided the results were Liberal 44.6 Labor 31.1 Green 11.1 JLN 4.8 Ind/Other 8.4.
Voting Intention
The voting intention figures are old rope now but may be of some interest in terms of discussions of how the campaign has unfolded. Voting intentions were Liberal 41.7 Labor 30.5 Green 11.0 JLN 4.6 Other 8.0 Undecided 4.2. What would be a staggering 68% of undecided voters said they were leaning to the Liberals, except that the effective number of undecided voters after scaling would have been just 39, giving that 68% figure a margin of error of at least 15% (even more after scaling). After redistributing the undecided the results were Liberal 44.6 Labor 31.1 Green 11.1 JLN 4.8 Ind/Other 8.4.
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