South Australia 2026: Postcount Summary, Links Hub and Basic 2CP Contests

SEATS APPARENTLY WON (Not all confirmed) ALP 32 Lib 4 ON 2 IND 2

In doubt (others may be added): (if seat is covered on another page, link appears on seat name)

Morphett (Liberal) - ALP likely vs Liberal

Hammond (Liberal) - One Nation vs Liberal, issue is who makes 3CP, One Nation currently ahead

Light (Labor) - ALP vs One Nation, awaiting 2CP realignment, covered below

Heysen (Liberal) - Liberal vs ALP or Green, Liberal projecting ahead

Finniss (Liberal) - Liberal vs One Nation vs IND, complex exclusion order issues

Kavel (IND vacancy) - Labor vs IND vs One Nation vs Liberal, complex exclusion order issues

Ngadjuri (Liberal) - One Nation ahead vs Liberal, issue is who makes 3CP

ESTIMATED TOTAL INCLUDING CURRENT/PROJECTED LEADS ALP 34 Lib 5 ON 4 IND 2, Finniss and Kavel not yet projected

LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL expected 4 ALP 2 ON 2 Lib 1 Green, ON likely for one remaining seat, ALP vs Green vs Legalise Cannabis (trailing) for other seat.  

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Welcome to my main 2026 South Australian election postcount thread.  The election has turned out much like most of the final polls suggested - I have a summary of the state of play at the end of election night on last night's thread.  The big picture is clear, a huge victory for the Malinauskas government, and the divided conservative parties fighting over slightly more scraps than expected in light of a not that great showing by independents.  

This page will cover straightforward contests which will be unrolled through the day.  I have already put a postcount thread up for Heysen thanks to the speed of its election night count.  I may wait for prepolls before putting up detailed projection threads for Hammond and Ngadjuri (which both seem to be about which of the Liberals and One Nation knocks out the other, with the latter looking well placed in both) and also the serious messes in Finniss and Kavel, but I will see how I go for time there.  For the Legislative Council the count is at this stage very incomplete and I may do a thread when it reaches a reasonable percentage counted.  For Morphett I expect the prepolls to put it to bed but I will wait for them before deciding whether it needs covering.  

This page will include coverage of any seat that is a straight-up two-candidate contest, with or without realignment. It will also include discussion of general themes.

Note that Antony Green has said the remaining prepolls should be reported today.

General Theme: Savings Provisions

I should add a note on something that's been the subject of some discussion re One Nation - savings provisions.  In South Australia otherwise informal votes with a unique 1 can (in most but not all cases) be converted into a party savings ticket that is lodged with ECSA.  The argument being made is that since One Nation issued open how to vote cards, many of their voters may have voted just 1, and these votes may be lurking in the informal pile to spring forth and boost One Nation prospects.  I'm actually not sure if that is how the just-1s are treated on the night but in any case I doubt this is going to be a very big thing.  The overall informal rate is running at just 4.1%, which is up only 0.9% on 2022, and some of that increase would be caused by voters getting confused by increased candidate numbers.  So I just don't think there are all that many just-1s to save.  

General Theme: Realignments

A vast number of seats have incorrect two-candidate preferred choices that will need realigning; this particularly relates to Labor seats where One Nation rather than the Liberals will be second.  In this process the count is converted to the correct two-candidate pairing booth by booth.  During the early stages the 2CP will gyrate wildly and it can look like seemingly safe seats have flipped or are in doubt.  As more booths are added in the realignment process the 2CP will settle down.  I will follow the realignment as time permits where there seems to be serious doubt about the result.

Light (ALP 20.1%) 

I'm sorry, is this actually a seat?  Gawler-centred Light north-east of Adelaide was a former conservative seat held by Labor's Tony Piccolo for twenty years, but Piccolo has decamped to Ngadjuri which he currently seems to be losing; this must have seemed like a good idea to someone at the time.  Piccolo's margin was such that the seat had become unloseable to the Liberals, but One Nation has turned out to be a very different story.  Alongside slightly disappointing performances in Liberal strongholds, One Nation have done very well in several Labor safe seats to the point that this one still requires a look at.

With 63.9% of enrolment counted (in 2022 it reached 88.1%), Light has Labor's James Agness on 37.8% leading One Nation's Alexander Banks on a very handy 34.3%.  The Liberals have 12.5%, the Greens 8.8%, Family First 3.1%, Legalise Cannabis 2.5% and Australian Family 0.9%.  As ECSA picked Labor and Liberal as the candidates to throw the 2CP for information for this seat in, we have no 2CP between Labor and One Nation and we will have to wait for the realignment of the count early in the week. 

We do however have ALP vs ON flows in Giles and Wright.  In Giles, Labor is getting 55.8% of all preferences and in Wright 62.7%.  Light lies between these two in terms of the Green vote, but Giles and Wright have incumbents with far higher Labor primaries, just below 50%, and the Labor primary would be corellated with the preference flow to Labor.  On current numbers, Agness needs only 43.9% of preferences to win, and if what Giles and Wright are pointing to about a perhaps weak flow from Liberals to One Nation is true,  that should be quite easily doable.  Poll Bludger projects Labor with only a very narrow 50.3-49.7 final margin though and this is one worth keeping an eye on as the realignment unfolds to see where it settles.  There is also quite a lot of outstanding post-counting in this seat and if time permits I will have a look at what that 24% or so may be and how it may behave.