Launceston: Armitage (IND) has retained, narrowly defeating Ellis (IND)
Murchison: CALLED (6:53 pm) Ruth Forrest (Ind) re-elected.
Rumney: Lovell (ALP) defeats Mulder (Ind) after preferences
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Introduction:
Welcome to my thread for tonight's Legislative Council action, where three independents of various political persuasions will attempt to hold their positions against some high profile and/or party-endorsed challengers. The Legislative Council is finely balanced (here's the maths) and if things go badly for the Hodgman Government tonight then it could be facing trouble upstairs lasting years. You can see my previews here: Rumney, Murchison, Launceston.
Comments will follow below the dotted line, scrolling from the earliest upwards. All the seats will be covered together. I'm leaving some text here at the top in a probably vain attempt to prevent a repeat of last year's purple text fiasco.
Saturday, May 6, 2017
Friday, May 5, 2017
EMRS: Both Majors Rebuild Following Labor Leader Change
EMRS: Lib 39 ALP 34 Green 15 Ind 7 PHON 3 Others 2
Interpretation: Lib 41 ALP 37 Green 12 PHON 3 all others 7
Liberals would probably just retain majority based on this poll
A very brief preliminary report on the EMRS state poll just released (http://www.emrs.com.au/pdfs/EMRS%20State%20Voting%20Intentions%20Report%20-%20May%202017.pdf) See also the trend tracker at http://emrs.com.au/.
The poll shows a noticeable recovery by both major parties (the Liberals up four points and Labor up five) at the expense of the Greens, One Nation and the supposed "independent" vote (all down three), following both Labor's shift to Rebecca White and a tanking in the national One Nation vote. In other states, points that have come off One Nation have generally gone straight back to Labor, so the Liberals will be relieved if that turns out not to be the case down here.
The Greens' result may look OK, since it is higher than their 2014 election outcome, but EMRS has a long history of overestimating their vote by a few points, so they would probably go backwards in an election held "right now". This isn't any surprise really - they were always going to struggle when Labor shifted to a young, female and relatively left-wing leader. While the salmon farming issue may yet play out in the party's favour, they sorely lack both experienced MPs and the shiny new thing factor and may even have a fight on their hands in Franklin come election day.
Interpretation: Lib 41 ALP 37 Green 12 PHON 3 all others 7
Liberals would probably just retain majority based on this poll
A very brief preliminary report on the EMRS state poll just released (http://www.emrs.com.au/pdfs/EMRS%20State%20Voting%20Intentions%20Report%20-%20May%202017.pdf) See also the trend tracker at http://emrs.com.au/.
The poll shows a noticeable recovery by both major parties (the Liberals up four points and Labor up five) at the expense of the Greens, One Nation and the supposed "independent" vote (all down three), following both Labor's shift to Rebecca White and a tanking in the national One Nation vote. In other states, points that have come off One Nation have generally gone straight back to Labor, so the Liberals will be relieved if that turns out not to be the case down here.
The Greens' result may look OK, since it is higher than their 2014 election outcome, but EMRS has a long history of overestimating their vote by a few points, so they would probably go backwards in an election held "right now". This isn't any surprise really - they were always going to struggle when Labor shifted to a young, female and relatively left-wing leader. While the salmon farming issue may yet play out in the party's favour, they sorely lack both experienced MPs and the shiny new thing factor and may even have a fight on their hands in Franklin come election day.
Wednesday, April 26, 2017
Poll Roundup: Recovery, Or Just Turbulence?
2PP Aggregate: 52.4 to ALP (-1.1 since last week)
Closest reading of 2017 so far
Labor would win election "held now" with a moderate seat margin
Five weeks since the previous edition, it's time for another roundup of the state of federal polling. After some really bad readings from Newspoll in February and Essential in March, things seem to have settled down a little for the Turnbull government. This week the government gained a 2PP point on both Newspoll (47 to 48) and Essential (46 to 47). I aggregated the Newspoll at 47.8% and the Essential at 47.1%. With a bit of help from the March Ipsos and (temporarily) last week's Essential falling out of the sample, these polls have improved the government's position on my aggregate by 1.1 points in a week, to 47.6% 2PP.
I normally show just the smoothed tracking graph of rolling averages, but here's the "spiky" graph of one-week end-of-week figures, because it has a story to tell.
Closest reading of 2017 so far
Labor would win election "held now" with a moderate seat margin
Five weeks since the previous edition, it's time for another roundup of the state of federal polling. After some really bad readings from Newspoll in February and Essential in March, things seem to have settled down a little for the Turnbull government. This week the government gained a 2PP point on both Newspoll (47 to 48) and Essential (46 to 47). I aggregated the Newspoll at 47.8% and the Essential at 47.1%. With a bit of help from the March Ipsos and (temporarily) last week's Essential falling out of the sample, these polls have improved the government's position on my aggregate by 1.1 points in a week, to 47.6% 2PP.
I normally show just the smoothed tracking graph of rolling averages, but here's the "spiky" graph of one-week end-of-week figures, because it has a story to tell.
Thursday, April 20, 2017
Wonk Central: Why We Don't Use The Hare Quota In Hare-Clark (Or The Senate)
For this exciting episode of Wonk Central I turn to the question of the Hare Quota, and why it is deservedly extinct in Single Transferable Vote multi-member electoral systems like the ACT and Tasmanian parliaments, and also the federal Senate and various state upper houses. A warning that as usual for Wonk Central articles, this piece is especially mathsy. A more important warning: I strongly advise readers with the slightest interest in the merits of different quotas for STV to stay well away from Wikipedia coverage of the matter. It is so bad that I can't work out where to start in attempting to improve it.
Thursday, April 6, 2017
Legislative Council 2017: Launceston
This is my third of three preview articles for the three Legislative Council seats up for grabs next month. Rumney has already been posted here and Murchison is here. There will be a live coverage thread for all seats on the night of Saturday 6 May. There may also be other threads on Launceston if a campaign issue warrants them. For more about the current political makeup of the Legislative Council see my assessment of voting patterns.
This piece will be edited through the campaign from time to time for updates or changed assessments.
Seat Profile
To the surprise, I would suspect, of nobody, Launceston is based in the city of Launceston. It takes in certain central, southern and inner suburbs of the city and the satellite town of Hadspen. It includes outer-suburban booths that are notoriously swingy at federal elections, as a result of which the federal Bass electorate habitually dumps sitting members.
This piece will be edited through the campaign from time to time for updates or changed assessments.
Seat Profile
To the surprise, I would suspect, of nobody, Launceston is based in the city of Launceston. It takes in certain central, southern and inner suburbs of the city and the satellite town of Hadspen. It includes outer-suburban booths that are notoriously swingy at federal elections, as a result of which the federal Bass electorate habitually dumps sitting members.
Wednesday, April 5, 2017
Legislative Council 2017: Murchison
This is my second preview article for the three Legislative Council seats up for grabs next month. Rumney has already been posted here and Launceston will follow. There will be a live coverage thread for all seats on the night of Saturday 6 May. There may also be other threads on Murchison if a campaign issue warrants them. For more about the current political makeup of the Legislative Council see my assessment of voting patterns.
This piece will be edited through the campaign from time to time for updates or changed assessments.
Seat Profile
Murchison is a large regional/rural/remote electorate on the west coast of Tasmania. It contains the north-western centres of Smithton, Wynyard and Stanley, the West Coast mining towns of Queenstown, Rosebery and Zeehan and the tourism and fishing hub of Strahan. It also includes King Island and the far western suburbs of the small city of Burnie.
This piece will be edited through the campaign from time to time for updates or changed assessments.
Seat Profile
Murchison is a large regional/rural/remote electorate on the west coast of Tasmania. It contains the north-western centres of Smithton, Wynyard and Stanley, the West Coast mining towns of Queenstown, Rosebery and Zeehan and the tourism and fishing hub of Strahan. It also includes King Island and the far western suburbs of the small city of Burnie.
Tuesday, April 4, 2017
Legislative Council 2017: Rumney
With about a month to go until the Legislative Council elections it's time to roll out some preview coverage of the three seats up for election. I've decided to start with Rumney because it is the one where the Hodgman Government faces the biggest peril to its ability to get bills through the Upper House. It's also the closest thing to a normal two-party contest and hence the one on which there is the most available data to crunch. And, at this stage, it's the one with the most candidates.
There will be a live coverage thread for all seats on the night of Saturday 6 May. There may also be other threads on Rumney if a campaign issue warrants them. For more about the current political makeup of the Legislative Council see my assessment of voting patterns.
This piece will be edited through the campaign from time to time for updates or changed assessments.
Guides for Murchison and Launceston are also now up.
There will be a live coverage thread for all seats on the night of Saturday 6 May. There may also be other threads on Rumney if a campaign issue warrants them. For more about the current political makeup of the Legislative Council see my assessment of voting patterns.
This piece will be edited through the campaign from time to time for updates or changed assessments.
Guides for Murchison and Launceston are also now up.
Sunday, April 2, 2017
Legislative Council Voting Patterns 2013-7
(Note: for updates on the Braddon recount go here)
Advance Summary:
1. This article presents a revised analysis of voting patterns in the Legislative Council (the upper house of Tasmanian Parliament) based on contested divisions in the last four years.
2. Although there is a degree of independence in all Legislative Council voting, the Council continues to have a clearly defined "left wing" consisting of Craig Farrell and Josh Willie (Labor), and independents Mike Gaffney, Ruth Forrest, Kerry Finch and Rob Valentine.
3. Excepting Rosemary Armitage and Tania Rattray (and Jim Wilkinson, who does not vote) the remaining MLCs (independents Ivan Dean, Robert Armstrong, Greg Hall, independent Liberal Tony Mulder and endorsed Liberals Vanessa Goodwin and Leonie Hiscutt) can all be clearly placed on the "right wing" side.
4. A possible left-to-right sort of the Council could be Valentine, Forrest, Gaffney, Farrell and Willie, Finch, Armitage, Rattray, Hall, Armstrong, Dean, Goodwin, Mulder, Hiscutt. However most of the exact positions in this list are debatable.
5. Voting in the Legislative Council was again not very party-polarised in 2016.
6. The Legislative Council is finely balanced going into the 2017 elections.
Advance Summary:
1. This article presents a revised analysis of voting patterns in the Legislative Council (the upper house of Tasmanian Parliament) based on contested divisions in the last four years.
2. Although there is a degree of independence in all Legislative Council voting, the Council continues to have a clearly defined "left wing" consisting of Craig Farrell and Josh Willie (Labor), and independents Mike Gaffney, Ruth Forrest, Kerry Finch and Rob Valentine.
3. Excepting Rosemary Armitage and Tania Rattray (and Jim Wilkinson, who does not vote) the remaining MLCs (independents Ivan Dean, Robert Armstrong, Greg Hall, independent Liberal Tony Mulder and endorsed Liberals Vanessa Goodwin and Leonie Hiscutt) can all be clearly placed on the "right wing" side.
4. A possible left-to-right sort of the Council could be Valentine, Forrest, Gaffney, Farrell and Willie, Finch, Armitage, Rattray, Hall, Armstrong, Dean, Goodwin, Mulder, Hiscutt. However most of the exact positions in this list are debatable.
5. Voting in the Legislative Council was again not very party-polarised in 2016.
6. The Legislative Council is finely balanced going into the 2017 elections.
Saturday, April 1, 2017
Postal Plebiscite: Australia's Biggest Bad Elector Survey
(Note added Aug 2017: This article from April has received much interest lately. For new comments go to Electoral Process, But Not As We Know It: Postal Plebiscite V2).
The federal Coalition went to the 2016 federal election with a commitment to hold a national non-binding plebiscite on marriage equality (aka "same-sex marriage") prior to any further parliamentary vote on the issue. The plebiscite was, as noted here before, a bad idea in policy terms, though it was mostly successful in neutralising marriage equality as a campaign issue. The plebiscite plan was voted down in the Senate, leaving the whole issue apparently unable to progress within this term.
The option of simply changing the law seems impossible because religious reactionaries within and supporting the Coalition won't allow it. (They're the ones who don't understand why people keep talking about marriage equality, but would bring down the Prime Minister and/or destroy their own party even in a failed attempt to stop it.) Leaving the issue as a festering distraction til the next election isn't too attractive either, so along comes Peter Dutton with a proposal to have the plebiscite anyway, but to do it by post. Voting would be optional.
The idea of holding a voluntary ballot that does not need the approval of parliament is not new; this option of a "fee-for-service" ballot under Section 7A of the Electoral Act was discussed in the Senate plebiscite report. The option was not costed at the time because there was no proposed legislation to implement it.
The federal Coalition went to the 2016 federal election with a commitment to hold a national non-binding plebiscite on marriage equality (aka "same-sex marriage") prior to any further parliamentary vote on the issue. The plebiscite was, as noted here before, a bad idea in policy terms, though it was mostly successful in neutralising marriage equality as a campaign issue. The plebiscite plan was voted down in the Senate, leaving the whole issue apparently unable to progress within this term.
The option of simply changing the law seems impossible because religious reactionaries within and supporting the Coalition won't allow it. (They're the ones who don't understand why people keep talking about marriage equality, but would bring down the Prime Minister and/or destroy their own party even in a failed attempt to stop it.) Leaving the issue as a festering distraction til the next election isn't too attractive either, so along comes Peter Dutton with a proposal to have the plebiscite anyway, but to do it by post. Voting would be optional.
The idea of holding a voluntary ballot that does not need the approval of parliament is not new; this option of a "fee-for-service" ballot under Section 7A of the Electoral Act was discussed in the Senate plebiscite report. The option was not costed at the time because there was no proposed legislation to implement it.
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