Attrition Rates In Tasmanian Councils: The 2022-6 Term And The 2026 Elections

At the end of the last Council term I wrote an article called Have Tasmanian Local Council Attrition Rates Increased?  The point of this article was to assess whether Tasmanian councillors had become more likely to quit.  I found that both Mayors and Councillors (especially Councillors elected at the previous election) had been more likely to stand down in 2022 than 2018.

In 2026 there's an obvious reason why Councillors might be more likely to quit: there aren't as many seats.  The number of councillors is being reduced from 263 to 213 so the chance of winning is lower.  On the other hand, the seats pay better.  There has been a decline in the number of candidates (very welcome in the case of the large councils) but there are also more candidates running for mayor or deputy, probably because winning councillor seats is harder so they are more inclined to try to get some extra publicity.

Here are the attrition figures for this term and the upcoming election.  I should note one other change is that in 2022 councils were elected by compulsory voting for the first time.  

Mayors

Of the 29 Mayors elected at the 2022 elections, two were elected to Parliament during the term and three resigned.  Seven are retiring from their councils at the election.  In all 17 original Mayors and four replacements are recontesting their positions, for a total of 21/29 (72.4%) of Mayors recontesting, up from 19/29 last time. All of George Town, Hobart, Huon Valley, Latrobe, Meander Valley, Kingborough, Waratah-Wynyard and West Tamar have a vacancy in the top job.  

Councillors

Of the 263 councillors elected at the 2022 elections, three died during the term.  Eight were elected to parliament, one of whom (Simon Behrakis, Hobart) has since lost his parliamentary seat and is now running for his council seat again.  Two were disqualified from office for missing three meetings, both controversially, but one of those (Sarina Laidler, King Island) was re-elected unopposed to her own vacancy.  The other (Kelly Sims, Glenorchy) is running for her seat back at this election.  At least 26 original councillors resigned this term, one of whom (Charles Wooley, Sorell/Hobart) is now running for a different council.  Another (Mike Wilson, Huon Valley) resigned without taking up his seat.  Of the 224 original councillors to still be on council without interruption, I count 64 who are retiring from their seats at the election, though at least one of these (Richard James, Clarence/Southern Midlands) is running for a different council.

Of the 39 vacancies of original councillors during the term, two were not filled as they were too close to the election (there may have also been some other late breaking resignations I didn't notice here).  Of the 37 councillors elected on recounts or by-elections during the term three resigned during the term.  Another eight have retired, as has one of the replacements for the three who resigned.  Overall 160 original (uninterrupted term) and 28 replacement councillors are recontesting (one of them a replacement for themselves). This number (188/263=71.4%) is in fact very slightly higher than in 2022.  The slightly higher number of mid-term vacancies can be attributed to there being more seats in state parliament now and two lower house elections in the term instead of the usual one.  

Overall therefore the changes to the number of councillors don't seem to have scared existing councillors off recontesting their seats - which is interesting - but they (or something) have scared off more off-council challengers.  The impact of this is quite stark with the number of non-incumbent candidates (including second rounds for unfilled positions) falling from 324 to 253.  

One off-council candidate, Will Gordon (West Tamar), a former twice state Labor candidate, has announced that he has "withdrawn" from the election after nominations were closed.  This means his name still appears on the ballot paper and he could in theory be elected (but presumably won't be); if elected he would then have to formally resign the seat creating the same situation as Wilson where there is an immediate recount for that seat.  

Some examples

Nine councils have had no changes in membership during the term and two councils are having no retirements at the election.  However these aren't the same councils, and some of the councils with no mid-term resignations are seeing as many as four retirements at the election.  The most continuous councils in terms of candidates recontesting are Break O'Day (with one mid-term resignation but no retirements at the election) and Brighton (with no mid-term resignations and one retirement at the election).  

The most depleted Council through the term has been the troubled Dorset council which was suspended for much of the term.  Of its original nine councillors, six including the Mayor and Deputy resigned causing various by-elections and recounts.  One of the replacement councillors also resigned.  However, six of the nine councillors as at the end of the term are recontesting, including two original councillors. Another four councils have only three recontesting full-term incumbents, including King Island and Latrobe who each have five retirements at the election.

I will be covering the Council election counts in coming weeks with a detailed article for Hobart and a separate less detailed article covering general results and several (perhaps even briefly all!) other councils.