Legislative Council 2025: Pembroke

PEMBROKE (2022 margin ALP vs Lib 13.3%)

Slightly delayed by a three-week bump to avoid a clash with the federal election, the Tasmanian Legislative Council elections will be upon us soon enough and I need to get cracking on my Pembroke guide because the fur is flying and things are gettin dirrrrty!  Recently I released my usual survey of the Council's voting patterns.  Link to Nelson guide is here and link to Montgomery here.  Nominations close on May 1.  There will be live coverage of all three seats here on the night of May 24 and as required through the postcount.

The current numbers in the Council are four Liberal, three Labor, one Green and seven independents, with the independents ranging fairly evenly across the political spectrum.  Labor gives up one vote on the floor and in the committee stages because it holds the Presidency, and as a result there are currently fine balances between major party and other MLCs (6-8 on the floor) and party and non-party MLCs (7-7 on the floor).  The balance between the major parties could be interesting if Labor actually opposes anything, but in the last year that happened only twice, leading me to classify the party's voting pattern as "Right" for the first time ever.  

This year sees a vacancy for the retirement of Leonie Hiscutt (Liberal), the first defence for left-wing independent Meg Webb, and the subject of this article, the first defence for Labor's Luke Edmunds.

Seat Profile

Pembroke (see map) is a small suburban seat that falls entirely within the City of Clarence on Hobart's eastern shore, and within the state and federal electorates of Franklin.  The electorate extends from Tranmere in the south to Geilston Bay in the north.  At the 2024 state election, the Liberals polled 34.7% in booths in Pembroke (this includes the Rosny prepoll which would have had some voters from other parts of Franklin), Labor 28.7%, Greens 17.1%, ex-Labor independent David O'Byrne 10.4% and the Lambie Network 4.4%.  The Greens for the second election running got into the low 20s in Montagu Bay and the Lindisfarne booths, and their vote in the seat increased despite increased non-major competition, so it's not a bad area for them.  

The two most distinctive booths in Pembroke are Warrane (blue-collar and strong for Labor/O'Byrne) and Tranmere (wealthy and strong for the Liberals).  Overall the seat is left of the state average, as indicated by its higher Greens vote and what would have been a higher Labor vote without the enforced estrangement of O'Byrne.  At federal level Pembroke is very strongly pro-Labor (watch this space to see if it remained so sometime in May).

Pembroke at LegCo level has been a swing seat that was held by both major parties back and forth in the last 35 years, with a brief independent interruption, but in recent times it has been stronger for Labor.  For a while the major parties took it in turns to hold Pembroke comfortably, suggesting that the personal appeal of specific major party candidates (Peter McKay and Vanessa Goodwin for the Liberals, Allison Ritchie and Jo Siejka for Labor) had a lot to do with it.  The seat has had a large number of mid-term resignations and hence has gone to the polls often in recent decades. Most recently in 2022, Siejka resigned to move interstate but Labor romped it in with a 4.7% 2PP swing to them in a field unusually lacking in high-profile independents.  

Incumbent

Labor's Luke Edmunds (party page, Facebook, candidacy announcement) is defending Pembroke after winning it in the above-mentioned by-election.  ALP members do not usually seek party endorsement for local council elections in Tasmania, and thus Edmunds was elected to Clarence Council at his first attempt in 2018 as an independent, despite being a staffer for then-leader and now federal Lyons candidate Rebecca White at the time.  In this attempt he was ninth with 4.2% of the primary vote.  He was not all that well known statewide when preselected for the by-election but his campaign was much quicker out of the blocks than his rivals and focused successfully on cost of living issues including electricity prices and the government's waste levy; Edmunds thrashed the Liberal candidate Gregory Brown 63.3-36.7.  Prior to politics Edmunds was a journalist, described as a "freelance sports journalist" on a now deleted Twitter profile.  He is also a renter and has highlighted rental issues in his campaigns.  Edmunds is frequently in the news; I found dozens of articles from the last six months, often involving the proposed AFL stadium in the presently high profile role of Shadow Minister for Sports and Events; his other portfolios are Finance and Racing.  He appears to be a solid basic issues campaigner for the party and has had a successful first half-term.  Edmunds lives in the electorate.

Challengers (4) 

Allison Ritchie ( candidacy announcement, Facebook) is the current Deputy Mayor of Clarence and was also MLC for this seat from 2001 to 2009.  Ritchie, initially a Labor member from her mid-teens, won Pembroke in 2001 at age 26, the youngest MLC ever elected, unseating incumbent MLC and Clarence Mayor Cathy Edwards 53.8-46.2 in a race where Edwards suffered from holding dual roles (no longer allowed).  Ritchie easily retained Pembroke in 2007 with a 42.7% primary vote against a modest field of mostly local council independents.  In late 2008 Ritchie briefly served as Minister for Planning and Workplace Relations but resigned this ministry after two months for health reasons.  In June 2009 she attracted controversy over the appointments of family members in her office and shortly thereafter resigned the seat as well citing health and family wellbeing reasons.  The Auditor-General's report on the nepotism controversy was very critical of Ritchie but found the appointments broke no rules, essentially because there were no relevant rules to break.  This was discussed in detail in my 2013 LegCo guide which also discussed lazy media reporting and some Wikipedia fun and games around that time.  

Ritchie soon quit the ALP but in 2013 recontested the seat she had resigned from against the Liberals' Vanessa Goodwin who had won the by-election.  The late Dr Goodwin was a popular local member and won on primaries; the two-candidate margin would probably have been around 55-45, about the best that I thought Ritchie could do in the circumstances.  She was next seen later that year as director of (but not a candidate for) the Tasmanian Nationals, a strange little rabble that was briefly a part of the federal National Party before being disaffiliated, whereupon it ran in the 2014 state election anyway with a spectacular lack of success.   Ritchie herself was to do much better when she entered local politics at the 2022 Clarence City Council election.  Running on a ticket with now-Mayor and Franklin federal candidate Brendan Blomeley, she bolted onto Council (fourth elected) and won the vacant Deputy Mayoralty (54-46 vs Wendy Kennedy) defeating five incumbent councillors for the position.  (That said, the most popular councillors were running for Mayor).

Ritchie has several community involvements including as General Manager of Hobart PCYC, as former President of Boxing Tasmania, and as founding member of a lobby group called People Protecting Children.  She is also director of a family farm at Runnymede,  As a Clarence Councillor, Ritchie was most notably in the news when she alongside only Emma Goyne (a recent One Nation candidate) voted for a motion concerning alleged COVID vaccine DNA contamination.  The motion is one of a raft of such motions around the nation to be premised on a report by Dr David Speicher that has been labelled as misinformation by the Therapeutic Goods Administration. I have not yet examined Ritchie's voting patterns on Clarence Council in detail - at a quick flick through the last year or so of minutes she rather often voted alongside Mayor Blomeley (who I previously identified as on the "right" side of the council) on contested motions, but not always; I found five or so other exceptions.  Clarence Council is not very factionalised and such groupings as exist cut across major party membership lines.  Ritchie's campaign is endorsed by Goyne and former Mayor Doug Chipman among others.  Ritchie's website includes a postal address, which she owns, within the electorate, but it is unknown to me whether or how often she lives there.  

Tony Mulder is another Clarence Councillor and former MLC for adjacent Rumney (2011-2017).  Mulder is a former Police Commander who ran for the Liberals in Franklin in 2010, coming reasonably close to winning.  In Rumney he ran against Labor's trouble-plagued Lin Thorp as an "independent liberal" (apparently because the Liberals could not decide whether to endorse him or someone else) and won the seat 53.2-46.8.  However he only lasted one curmudgeonly small-l liberal non-conformist term before being ousted by Labor's Sarah Lovell 52.3-47.7.  Since then Mulder has been a serial state election candidate, contesting Prosser 2018, Pembroke 2019 and Rumney 2023 all without making the final two, and making very little impact in Franklin 2024.  The first of these tilts got him removed from the Liberal Party for running against their candidate.  At council level though he has held his seat from 2005 except for his years in the Legislative Council, and in 2022 he topped the councillor poll and lost the mayoralty to Blomeley very narrowly (49.2-50.8).  In the previous term of Clarence council I rated his voting pattern as "centre (slightly left)".  Mulder is an old fashioned campaigner and in this case the first evidence he was running was not an announcement but the appearance of his endlessly recycled signs.  He is on good enough terms with his opponent Edmunds that in this term they paired up in a recent sailing race.  He lives at Howrah, within Pembroke.  

Carly Allen (Facebook, candidacy announcement) is the endorsed Tasmanian Greens candidate.  Allen is a graphic designer (including of past Greens pamphlets!) and also a marketing and events manager and musician/composer/singer-songwriter.  She also works in a family food business.  Allen lives within the electorate.  She is a new Greens candidate but long time supporter.  Allen has cited her experience of being diagnosed with breast cancer in the UK last year as a motivating factor for campaigning, including on health issues.  She briefly worked in Nick McKim's office near the end of the Giddings ALP/Green government years and has also been a publisher and magazine designer in the UAE.  

Steve Loring (Twitter, Instagram) is the endorsed Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate.  He is a real estate agent with Roberts, Lions Club member and NDIS support worker.  As at the 2024 Sorell Council by-election (in which he ran fourth out of five on the Councillor ballot) Loring lived in Carlton River, outside Pembroke. He has worked as a Community Development Manager in remote communities in the NT.  

Not Running

The Liberals stated in early March that they would not contest Pembroke, in which they have lost heavily at their last three attempts, as they are focusing on Nelson and Montgomery.  It is the first time since 2007 that the party has not run.  An intending independent candidate Adam Colrain did not nominate.

Issues

1. AFL Stadium: The AFL stadium proposed for Macquarie Point on the other side of the river has become more prominent again during the Pembroke campaign with news that the government intends to pass legislation to override the Project of State Significance process that would otherwise report in September.  For this they would currently need the votes of Labor plus two independents.  This follows news that Dr Nicholas Gruen, author of an independent report into the stadium, met with project opponents prior to terms of reference being finalised and did not inform the government immediately when amending disclosure reporting to disclose this.  That news was seized on by the government to claim the existing process is compromised. 

In dismissing a call for the stadium to be put to a referendum,  Edmunds said Tasmanians have already voted on the stadium in the 2024 state election.  But in fact the majority of voters backed parties or candidates who didn't support the government's position, and the fact that the government is still there has a lot to do with Labor refusing to attempt to form government with other parties and independents it could have found to prefer its 2024 position (of attempting to renegotiate and requiring crowd support to be demonstrated). The 2024 election was not a mandate for the government's position to any clear extent beyond Labor still letting the government be there.

The Greens are opposed to the stadium at its present location.   Mulder has previously supported the stadium but stated he is also open to the "Stadium 2.0" proposal which the government has now rejected.  Ritchie's position on the stadium is elusive at this stage.  Franklin is the one state electorate where support and opposition for the stadium are roughly equal.

2. Privatisation: While there is no government candidate in this by-election and no apparent opportunity to vote for the government's position, asset sales are on the agenda with Labor and Ritchie vying for the high ground.  Edmunds has criticised government plans to sell Metro and the MAIB while Ritchie is promising to introduce legislation for a REFERENDUM OF THE PEOPLE no less prior to any asset sales.

3. Renting:  Renters' issues have been mentioned on the campaign trail by several candidates.  Edmunds has an edge on the field here because he actually still is a renter, but this hasn't deterred Loring from supporting laws that would allow tenants to sign for one year with an option for extending for a further two.  (This policy is another interesting sign of the Shooters, Fishers + Farmers Tas expanding into what are often considered left areas.)  Ritchie supports "review of rental increases and property maintenance for public housing tenants"; at this stage I'm not entirely sure what that's about. She also supports banning foreign investors from buying houses and land.  

4. Development: Pembroke campaigns often have a strong overlap with Clarence Council local politics and this one is no different.   Allan has highlighted solidarity with local residents who have fought proposed developments including Kangaroo Bay, Rosny Hill and the AFL High Performance Centre (gone to Kingborough).  Ritchie has also said she will support skyline protection and opposes "moves by Labor and Liberal to remove the rights of communities to have a say on development", referring I think to the government's Development Assessments Panels proposal which went nowhere in November after no MLCs outside the major parties liked it - a second attempt is now being made on that proposal.  

Other campaign issues will be added.

Campaign

The campaign has been notable for Labor's use of negative campaigning against Ritchie, via a flier that mimics design elements of Ritchie's own flier and asks "Is this someone you can trust?"  (In linking to a Twitter image of the flier this article does not assert that Labor's attacks are accurate as stated, only that they have been made and should be recorded as part of coverage of the campaign).  The flier highlights an image of Ritchie with Eric Abetz as evidence she has "cosied up to Liberals", but the image is her appearing with Mayor Blomeley at the launch of Abetz's electorate office.  (Here's an image of her with Peter George; is she thereby "cosying up" to tealoid independents too?) It also attacks her support for the above-mentioned DNA contamination motion, the findings of the Auditor-General's report, and claims she lives "30 minutes outside the Eastern Shore" (a reference to the Runnymede farm - but see above).  Labor has dodged Section 196 (see below) by putting this out before the writs are issued.  Ritchie says she is pursuing legal action over the flier, claiming authorisation and image copyright issues.  The fliers were reportedly quickly pulled at the behest of Franklin federal incumbent Julie Collins, having had a limited circulation.  Collins is in a major fight to retain her seat and could do without the possible brand damage of a negative campaign by her party.  

Ritchie's campaign is quite politically amorphous.  Overall I would describe it as populist in tone, but it touches on at least as many populist left talking points (in a communitarian sense at least) as right.  Overall though it feels like she wants to wrap Pembroke in cotton wool and protect it from the nasty world outside.   

Other notes on the campaign, which I have little time to pay attention to but will try, may be noted from time to time.

Prospects

On past form the only opponent Labor would be nervous about here is Allison Ritchie.  They should  have the others covered easily.  Ritchie has had plenty of controversies, but she is also quite high-profile and touches a lot of political bases.  The question is how many voters has she turned off along the way.  In 2022 Labor got 84% of Greens preferences vs the Liberals in Pembroke, among the strongest flows seen in a LegCo election, and I doubt they will get anything near that vs Ritchie this time.  This said, Labor incumbents have a great record in Legislative Council elections, with Thorp the only officially endorsed ALP incumbent to lose in the last 40 years.  

Liberal voters do not have a candidate here; will they support Ritchie at least on preferences out of tribal dislike of Labor (some will vote for Mulder too) or will they back in the stadium and reward Labor for its recent stance of barely opposing anything?     

Negative campaiging (as Labor has been doing) has a long history of failure in Legislative Council contests.  This was especially notable in this seat when ageist Liberal attacks on Doug Chipman in 2017 (the subject of a later apology) backfired to the extent of a dismal preference flow from Chipman when the Liberals barely made the top two over him.  That's probably not an issue this time around as Ritchie could well make the top two, or if she does not Labor should have much too big a lead.

It's possible Labor will have a large primary vote lead approaching 2007, but overall there is potential for this to be closer than their recent Pembroke towellings of the Liberals.  Anything above 55-45 to Labor would be fine.  

Section 196

This site strongly supports urgent and unconditional reform of Section 196 of the Tasmanian Electoral Act, which makes it an offence to name or depict a candidate in material deemed to be an "advertisement, "how to vote" card, handbill, pamphlet, poster or notice"  without that candidate's consent.  This section as it stands is highly likely to be federally unconstitutional, and its application to material on the internet is so obscure that the law became an utter laughingstock in the recent state election when the TEC asked Juice Media to modify a mock advertisement.  A sensible reform would be to restrict Section 196 to how-to-vote cards.  A less preferable but still useful reform would be to cease applying Section 196 to the internet.  The views of parties and candidates on this matter will be noted here where known and candidates are welcome to advise me of their views:

* Labor and the Greens support restricting Section 196 to how-to-vote cards.  The Greens have been outspoken on the issue after being subject to a takedown notice in the 2020 Huon campaign, which they successfully resisted.