Prahran and Werribee By-Elections Live

Prahran (Grn vs Lib 12.0%)
Vacancy for resignation of Sam Hibbins (Grn/IND)

Liberal gain from Green/IND (called Sunday 4:20 pm)

Werribee (ALP vs Lib 10.9%)
Vacancy for resignation of Tim Pallas (ALP)
Labor retain (called Thursday 3:30 pm)

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Distributions: Both preference distributions have been posted and I don't know if there is any scope for further changes so for now it looks like the Liberals have won the primary vote count in Prahran by one vote.  In Prahran, the lead changed a few times through the distribution, and going into the Lupton exclusion the Greens were still ahead. However, that exclusion flowed 63.7% to Liberal.  I have heard from scrutineers that the flow from 1 Lupton votes was 68-32.  

In Werribee, the Liberals gained slightly from the final (Paul Hopper) transfer; here I have heard that the split off the 1 Hopper votes was 60-40 to them but the preferences that had pooled with Hopper from other sources favoured Labor.  What is notable here is that far from the minor candidates preferences pooling with Hopper, he actually went backwards compared to both majors, and got only 27.8% of the preferences at the 3CP stage.  This means that while there was a very large vote for non-majors in Werribee, a lot of those voters were not consistently opposed to the major parties; they just liked someone else more.  The term "double haters" has been thrown around in reference to this result but the distribution doesn't suggest that's what the voters are.  

Friday 6:20 ALP lead in Werribee out to 639, there will be slight changes but I expect it to finish well within 100 of that.  

Friday: Labor has very reasonably claimed victory in Werribee but the result is not official until after the adding of final votes and the distribution of preferences, which I'd expect to happen sometime next week.  In Prahran, it's interesting to note the Liberal primary vote lead over the Greens has come down to seven votes; although the Liberals will win the seat thanks to their superior preference flow, it is still possible they will do so from second on primaries (that would be embarrassing for right-wingers who oppose preferential voting).  

Tony Lupton has been claiming credit for the result in The Australian and suggesting Labor should put the Greens last everywhere.  However not only did his vote not look very Labory in booth terms, but his how to vote card which was orange and said "It's Time For An Independent" was hardly pitched at Labor voters beyond the endorsement from Steve Bracks.  

Thursday 3:30: Recheck primaries have come through without any major changes to Labor's position; this plus the increased lead after postals counted so far makes it clear Labor has retained the seat.   (Update: I understand there are now only provisionals and the last postals to come.)

Thursday 3pm: A report that Labor has done well on primary votes on the late postals and are poised to pull further ahead on 2PP.  (Update: report from Labor that the lead is now 591.)

Thursday midday: Counting of about 2000 Werribee postals has been brought forward to today.  This plus rechecking of booths may put the seat beyond doubt.  

Tuesday: Rechecking in Prahran has not resulted in any significant changes.  Still waiting for rechecked primaries in Werribee.  

Sunday: Where The Lupton Vote Really Came From!

There has been some damage-control spinning from the Greens of a result that is simply very bad.  Among this has been a tweet by leader Ellen Sandell claiming that "Obviously it’s not the result we would have liked but with the unofficial Labor candidate sending their preferences to the Liberals, those Labor preferences have handed the seat to the Liberals this time."  Firstly, Lupton was not a typical unofficial "independent Labor" type candidate but one who'd got involved in some culture war issues and criticised the party.  Secondly, candidates don't send preferences anywhere (it's the lower house) and I'd be surprised if the follow rate for the Lupton card was that high anyway.  Thirdly the evidence is that where Lupton got his votes from tended not to be the ALP support base.  In booth terms, while his vote was pretty flat everywhere, he did worst in the good Labor booths from 2022 and better in the good Liberal booths from 2022 - even though the former had more votes up for grabs care of Labor not running!  Neither result is statistically significant but they do very strongly contradict the idea that the Lupton vote was a large chunk of the former Labor vote - it looks more like an independent conservative sort of thing:

Sunday Turnout Note: Currently the turnout is at 75.2% in Werribee and 64.3% in Prahran.  Both will climb by several percent on remaining postals and provisionals, but Prahran won't get near its 2022 turnout of 82.7% while Werribee could get within a few points of its 2022 rollup of 86.2%.  

Turnouts are nearly always down substantially in by-elections (especially for the time of year I think the Werribee turnout is good) but they are often especially so when one major party doesn't contest.  This is one of the factors: many rusted-on Labor supporters of the sort who are likely to follow how to vote cards may well not have turned up.  But the Greens have still either done badly off the remainder, or else done badly at retaining their own past voters (or both).  This has played into a shift in overall preference flow of a staggering 35.3 points in the Liberals' favour.  

4:20 pm The Greens have conceded defeat in Prahran - while there have been extremely rare cases of candidates conceding then winning (indeed the Greens very nearly won Northcote after conceding it), in this case we can safely assume they're not seeing anything in terms of big errors.

6:30am Sunday The 2PP for the Werribee prepolls did finally arrive and Labor only got 49.6% of preferences in them (compared to my model's 52%) but even so Labor leads by 441 (50.6-49.4) and should still just hang on as there will not be that many more postals.  However, certainly need to see rechecking here before calling this.   

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11:15 END OF SATURDAY COVERAGE WRAP The night isn't over while we wait for the final 2PP for Werribee but I'm expecting Labor to be in a comfortable position despite a large swing once it does go in.  Aside from the presumably impossible prospect of independent Paul Hopper beating either major by 50 points on preferences in a three-way split and thereby dislodging one or other from the final two, it looks like Labor will survive in Werribee without wild celebrations but with a relieved sigh.  Their primary vote has been absolutely hammered but little of that has gone to the Liberals.  

As for Prahran, there was a view about that a Brad Battin-led Liberal Party could not get near winning this inner-city seat from the Greens but it seems that was quite wrong and the Greens have been harshly punished for their former member's misdeeds.  Or something, as this result ties in with findings that while the Greens are travelling fine in polling generally, there is a cloud over their best inner-city areas; this could make them nervous for the federal election.    The killer in the Prahran count, assuming the Greens have indeed lost the seat, was the postals.  I'll update tomorrow night if there is anything more much to add.  

11:10 And actually more prepolls have now been added - Labor seems to be OK here as I the late added ones have been better than the early ones and the prepolls should do nothing much after preferences.  

11:05 I am now projecting Labor about 500 ahead after prepolls - there was an error in my previous calculation.  If it pans out like that they will probably be OK.  

10:34 Labor did well on preferences in the Manor Lakes booth and might now lead by 100-150 once the prepoll prefs are added.  

10:21 And yes the prepolls are all in to 2CP in Prahran and the Liberals are now 945 ahead.  I'll hold off pending confirmation of anything to come or rechcking for now but it appears very strongly that the Liberals have gained Prahran.  

10:18 A partial early vote preference count in Prahran but don't know which centre it is from or what the primaries are there - the VEC really needs to start breaking out individual PPVCs in its numbers.  Need to see the full prepoll preference count to confirm what appears to be the case here - that the Liberals are winning.

10:11 At least some prepolls are in in Werribee and they are bad for Labor!  The Liberals will gain 650 on primaries which I project may blow out to around 900 on preferences; on the plus side for Labor there is a Manor Lakes booth where they are gaining over 100 on primaries.  This projects to more or less a tie, with Labor probably a few to several dozen ahead, easily within the margin of rechecking errors.  

9:44 I was heavily distracted by the Prahran mystery and on checking Werribee it appears that Labor should retain it unless something very bad happens on prepolls - I project them at about 52.5-47.5 after preferences and remaining booths.  I have had a question raised about one booth which I am checking.  (Yes, Labor now at 52.7 in the live count.)  Caution still needed - a very large prepoll count coming.

9:30 As I expected the Liberals are now ahead in Prahran, 51.6-48.4, and would appear to be winning it with probably not much more to add tonight.    

9:25 I am continuing to be confused as to why other sites are projecting Prahran positively for the Greens.  On my numbers the Liberals are level on current primaries, projecting to stay there after remaining votes and getting more than half the preferences in the booths.  So why are they not ahead?

8:56 Prahran seems to have tightened a great deal - the postals were very good for Liberals who have now caught up on primaries, and the overall 2CP swing is running close to the target.  Preference flows are much weaker for the Greens so far than previous elections.  I am only tracking off three booths so far but the projection now is for a 13.9% 2CP swing which would be enough to give the Liberals the seat!  The difference between what I'm doing and other sites is that I am assuming the preference flow will vary by booth based on how good the booth is for the parties.  Other sites are assuming the flow seen in the booths so far will continue.  But those booths are good booths for the Greens on average.  

8:36 A very positive development for Labor in the Thomas Chirnside booth.  There the swing based off the major party primaries is 10.9% (in the overall count it is 10.8%) but the swing after preferences is only 7.8%.  

8:22 Huge dump of votes in Prahran.  There's a slight swing to Greens and Liberals on primaries which would project the Greens to lead on primaries 38-33, but we need to see some preference flows.  It seems unlikely the preferences would be enough to be a problem, even despite Lupton's how to vote card.  Clearly the Greens and Liberals are the 2CP.  Notably the Greens have done well on prepolls.

8:20 Another two booths are in in Werribee.  The majors are now roughly even on primaries on 28 each but this projects out to about a 31-27 lead to Liberals and then the question is whether the preference flow is enough to stay there.  Still waiting for more preference booths.  Postals are in in Werribee and these have a big primary vote swing to the Liberals.

8:10 First booth in Prahran is in, Orrong.  There's a 4% swing to the Liberals and 2.4% against the Greens, Lupton is in barely double figures.  A comfortable start for the Greens on primaries, but need to see the 2CP flow as preferences could be far weaker for the Greens with no Labor candidate.  There is also a very small number of early votes in.

8:04 Two more Werribee booths in, with slightly smaller swings against Labor, mostly again going to Hopper and Vic Soc, some to the right.  Labor now tracking for 26.2 which would probably be enough to hold off Hopper who is tracking for 12.4 (some Green votes especially always go to Labor).  The two-party swing is about 11% ignoring preferences (just off the primaries) so the question is if the preference flow stays weak as per Little River, which would be advantage Murphy.  

8:00 The Liberals in Werribee at this stage, even if they win the 2PP, look very vulnerable to any non-Labor candidate who might get into the top two.  But it's not yet clear if anyone can.  

7:50 Riverbend is in in Werribee - another 20% swing against Labor but this time it's all going to Hopper and Vic Soc both of whom are on 12%.  An even larger minor party vote in this one.  

7:34 We have a 2PP swing for Little River; it's slightly more than I expected at 16.3%, with more than half the preferences going to Liberals in a mostly left list of minor parties.  Small sample but that is very ominous. 

7:32 Slow count this, I've been gradually adding sentences to the post below but there's been nothing more to see yet.  

7:04 Game on in Werribee, a huge swing in the Little River booth with Labor down 23.5 points (losing more than half their primary vote!) and Liberals up 12.8.  This is a small booth on the edge of the seat and may be unrepresentative but we will see!  A lot of the swing is going to Victorian Socialists in that very small booth, that would mostly return to Labor as preferences, so the 2PP damage might be, say, 14%.  A 40% non-major vote is also interesting - probably won't keep up across the seat as a whole as we get into better booths for Labor.  But that said this booth hasn't in the past been that bad comparatively, especially on primary vote.  After one booth, I'm not yet sure Labor's making the top two!

7:03 Antony has also reported that in Prahran prepolls are down 4.1 points on 2022 while postals are up 1.6 so far (and more will come).  In Werribee both have more or less exactly matched 2022 - not bad numbers for by-elections! 

6:55 Still no booths - the number of candidates means the counts will not be that quick.

6:46 Antony Green notes "A further note on pre-polls and postals. They will be counted tonight but won't report until after 9pm. The VEC does not distinguish between pre-poll voting centres, and as there are two in each district, there will be two updates reported as a total against a sinbgle historical figure for 2022. The swing measured after on pre-poll may not be a reliable measure of the final swing after two centres report."

6:33 No figures yet. Simon Love on Sky has said that Labor operatives are managing expectations re Werribee, either saying that they may lose or that they think they'll hang on narrowly.  Sometimes when they say this it is true but always watch out for the Eeyore factor.

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Intro (4:15 pm)

Welcome to my coverage of the Prahran and Werribee by-elections live.  My guide pages for these by-elections are here.  I will be posting comments about the counts through the evening starting from about 6:30 (or earlier if there's anything to say earlier).  Once counts start coming through, refresh every 10 mins or so for latest commentary.

There will be no coverage tomorrow (Sunday) until the evening - if there is anything to add anyway.  If there is any life left in the counts I will follow the post-counts through the coming week(s) until results are clear.  A summary will appear at the top of the page when there's anything to summarise and comments will appear in the space above.  If you want to donate to support my coverage of elections, there are donation options in the sidebar (if viewing on mobile phone, scroll to bottom of the page and click "View web version" to see the sidebar.)  

All numbers on this page are unofficial - visit the VEC site for official numbers.  All projections are also unofficial and I should not be considered to have "called" any seat until I explicitly use that word.  

Neither of these by-elections will change the overall state of the Victorian parliament but they are an important test for Labor, the Liberals and Greens ahead of the 2026 election.  Werribee is a classic case where a usually safe government seat could fall because it is a by-election and the government is polling badly.  There hasn't been any reliable polling for the seat and views on what will happen vary.  Prahran is weirder, but the Greens would want to hold it despite the negative circumstances of it being vacant, as this would boost their chance of winning it again in 2026.  

Tonight Werribee appears to be the more straightforward count.  It is generally expected to be a straight fight between Labor and Liberals where whoever wins the two-party preferred vote wins the seat.  There has been very little change to the booth listing though the Werribee and Werribee Central booths are merged.  There will be a large prepoll count to keep an eye on and population growth may impact the relative vote levels in different booths.

Prahran could be messier.  Firstly while this is on paper a Greens vs Liberals contest, there is more speculation that someone else (probably the independent Tony Lupton, a former Labor MP for the seat) can get into the top two, possibly from behind on preferences.  Prahran has also seen far greater changes in the booth listing, with only nine booths in use instead of fifteen.   This is especially significant in the south of the seat where the St Kilda, Balaclava and Redan Central booths will not be joining us (according to the VEC's booth locator) and those were all booths with Green 2CPs over 70%.  Most likely this will increase the vote in other southern booths.  But a further trick here is that since there is no Labor candidate there is no Labor how to vote.  All else equal, this is likely to mean the 2CP swing to the Liberals (assuming there is one) is stronger in the south where the Labor vote is higher (especially if any of the normally Labor-leaning voters pick up the Tony Lupton how to vote card, which recommends preferences to the Liberals ahead of the Greens, instead).  Perhaps the final two in Prahran will be obvious early, but maybe not.  (If the VEC happens to pick the wrong final two they won't realign the count tonight.)

By-elections have other quirks including a negligible absent vote, which sometimes allows conservative candidates to be competitive from well back at the end of the night.  The counting of some postals on the night should water down this effect but it may still be present.  

For those who can't get enough Victorian election content, the post below this one covers the Victorian government's disappointing failure to give even in principle support to scrapping group ticket voting for the upper house.  Tonight is, however, the lower house, where all preference flows are decided by the voter!

See also Poll Bludger results thread.