Legislative Council 2025: Montgomery, Nelson and Pembroke Live And Post-Count

Montgomery: Casey Hiscutt (IND) won after preferences as expected
Nelson: CALLED (7:09 pm) Meg Webb (IND) re-elected
Pembroke: CALLED (7:33 pm) Luke Edmunds (ALP) re-elected

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Live comments (scrolls to top)

All updates are unofficial, check the TEC site for official figures

Thursday 29th:  Unsurprisingly Hiscutt has done better than the Liberals on preferences; in fact he has won massively, 61.7-38.3 getting 76.9% of preferences that flowed to the two leaders (these figures are still subject to very minor change).   In Pembroke Ritchie snuck into second late in the primary count and moved 6.9% clear of Allan after preferences but still lost to Edmunds 58.2-41.8.  In all Ritchie got 59.2% of preferences.  In Nelson there will be no preferences; Meg Webb has 51.7%.  

Monday 26th night:  Today' counting saw a negligible narrowing of Hiscutt's lead in Montgomery.  The TEC will conduct provisional distributions on Thursday afternoon which should establish the result beyond doubt (and also who is second in Pembroke!)

Monday:  I have heard from scrutineers that the flow of Greens preferences to Webb was the small matter of 90% (possibly an all-time LegCo record flow though they probably won't get distributed), which puts the live count 2CP at 64.5 to Webb (a 5.2% swing).  

Sunday: Graph of the Day

The Nelson vote for the Liberals was virtually exactly what they got in the state election, in every booth.  The only substantial differences were that they beat their state election vote by 5.7 points in Kingston (possibly High Performance Centre related) and were 4.8 points below at Mt Nelson (Webb's home booth).  Subject to the usual churn of voters back and forth, the voters who normally vote Liberal in state elections voted Liberal and everybody else voted for Meg Webb or Greens, and a very high proportion of the Greens vote would flow to Webb as preferences anyway.  Even without a Labor candidate and even running a well known local (albeit non-Nelson-resident) name the Liberals almost completely failed to attract support outside their base.  

END OF NIGHT WRAP: I don't think we've seen any huge surprises tonight, assuming the scale of what I expect to be a comfy win for Casey Hiscutt is a little bit buried in the preference flows.  Unless Stephen Parry does better on preferences than I expect, the government has nothing to be happy about here.  The way Meg Webb won in 2019 was unusual enough that the government could get away with treating it as an oddity (they could have lost to several others in that field), and when they decided to run against her there may have been some actual optimism.  I suspect they are now wishing they had never turned the rock over as Webb has been returned with a decisive mandate from every booth in a formerly blue seat to carry on holding them to account, including by voting against them nearly all of the time.   

Labor will be pleased with an easy retain for Luke Edmunds who has worked the electorate hard and has taken little if any net damage from his party's pro-stadium stance.  His high vote in the south end of the seat stands out to me, particularly the Tranmere booth which is a stronghold for the absent Liberals.  The tealer end of the electorate is more divided with high 20s Green votes in several booths.  

The Greens, who sometimes struggle in Council elections, have done well in all three seats, picking up much more of the Labor vote than I thought they would in Montgomery and benefiting I suspect from a clear position against the Macquarie Point stadium.  Many voters will have voted Green here who have never done so before in their lives and this may help the party on the long road to rebuilding on the coast.

It looks like the independent majority will be back in the Legislative Council.  It remains to be seen just what kind of independent the fourth Hiscutt to reach the red couches will be.  

9:24 Burnie prepoll is in and Hiscutt's lead that I reckon he doesn't need anyway is out to 2.45%.  All seats are final for night.  

9:00 Burnie prepoll not in yet for Montgomery, the other two are final for night.  By the way Briggs won another tiny booth there, Wilmot.  

8:44 We don't get 2CP counts by booth in LegCo elections.  In 2019 based on the preference flows it's possible Webb would have beaten the Liberals in every booth on 2CP but some of them would have been closer than this.  I'm estimating her 2CP at about 63-37 (a 4% swing) but it could be higher than that if the Green preference flow exceeds 80%.  2CP estimates from 54-55 at Lower Sandy Bay and Sandy Bay Beach to around 75 at Taroona and Mt Nelson.   

8:32 Hiscutt has done well out of the second lot of prepolls (we have had Sheffield and Montgomery) and now leads by 2%.  I don't see any reason to doubt he will win and probably comfortably but am holding off on calling it pending any data on preference flows.  

8:22 Big prepoll in in Pembroke and the Greens are much less likely to make the final two now after  being outpolled by Ritchie in it 24-16 though they are still ahead of Ritchie slightly.  That may well not survive postals.  

8:20 What looks like one prepoll in Montgomery is in and Parry made a small gain, but not significant.

8:06 Kingston has reported, and Meg Webb has won Every. Single. Booth. Yes this used to be a conservative electorate.  

8:00 They're not going to win but I think the Greens would be more than a little bit happy with their showing in Pembroke where they are a chance to make the final two, though that will be unresolved for several days and they will need their lead over Ritchie to hold on prepolls.   Previously from memory they have only made the final two in competitive contests (as opposed to cases where they were the sole opposition) in Hobart/Wellington (which they now hold) and Nelson (2013).  

7:41 I am advised that there will be a significant delay (at least half an hour) in the very fast to this point Montgomery count as a result of a fire alarm!  

7:37 In Montgomery, the day booths are in and Hiscutt has picked up on primaries to lead by 1.8%.  The only way he can lose here is if there is for some reason a very weak flow on Greens preferences but a very strong flow to Parry off Shooters, Fishers and Farmers (which I'm not expecting).  I would like to see the prepolls in case Parry can get any kind of lead off those.  

7:34 In case anyone was wondering if it would get better for the Liberals in prepoll in Nelson, no, it got even worse. It loos like Webb is going to win on primaries and save the Liberals the humiliation of seeing the 2CP margin.  

7:32 Ritchie might get 60% of preferences (I doubt it, only one sample that good) if she makes the final two, but she needs over 804% on current numbers so Edmunds would be looking at a 2CP of over 58 on current numbers if she even makes it and gets that.  Allan if second is needing about 82% but no way, there will be a lot of Liberal voters in the Ritchie vote.  Over half of enrolment is counted now and Edmunds is at over 44%.  Called. 

7:22 I've seen a second scrutineering sample from Pembroke that is a little more positive for Ritchie's preference flows in the event that she is making the top two ... but not nearly high enough (and her making the top two is very doubtful anyway)  Edmunds has also polled extremely well in Tranmere.

7:12 Parry continues to lead Hiscutt by around 1%.  I would think that that is completely inadequate as Briggs' preferences are likely to favour Hiscutt and Pickin's preferences may not do very much.   Would welcome any scrutineering evidence.  

7:09 Nelson called.

7:06 A very strong booth for the Greens in Pembroke in Lindisfarne Primary.  I have seen some scrutineering figures from one booth that suggest that if Allan is second then Edmunds gets a large slab of preferences, while if Ritchie is second then Edmunds is favoured somewhat off Allan but Ritchie does well off Mulder.  Mulder is not getting much so far.  It looks a lot like Edmunds is winning and I am considering calling this seat too.  

7:03 Webb continuing to rise in my projection, now to over 60 2CP.  

7:00 I note the Lower Sandy Bay booth has lost half its voters since 2019; this booth also did something odd in the state election because it had moved.  

6:54 Vermey has failed to win the Lower Sandy Bay booth on primaries let alone preferences, an extremely bad sign for him,  This is the second best Liberal booth in the electorate,  I am considering calling the seat for Webb.  

6:53 Parry is doing well now on primaries, this one looks closer than expected.

6:50 Votes are pouring in in Montgomery and Parry is coming up towards Hiscutt on primaries.  It is looking like these should be the top two on primaries though Briggs has a fairly high vote (especially for the Greens in this area!) presumably based on the absence of a Labor candidate.  

6:45 Numerous booths have come in in Montgomery and for now Hiscutt is leading 32.8-26.2.  The preferences of Briggs are likely to favour Hiscutt over the Liberals and the SF+F preferences are not likely to break hugely either way so for now Hiscutt is very well placed.  I'm doubtful that he even needs to lead.   

6:43 Webb wins another booth at Dynnyrne.  If Vermey is not winning booths on primaries he's not winning; I currently project Webb to finish up with about a 43-37 lead coming out to about 58-42 after preferences.  

6:40  Edmunds has a huge lead (28% over the Greens) after the first booth in Pembroke (Mornington).  This is a favourable booth for Labor but would still project to something well into the 40s seat-wide, which would be very comfortable.

6:36 A booth called Kingston West is in in Nelson; never heard of it before.  Anyway a good start for Webb as she leads on primaries and would gain more on Green preferences.   If she is near 50 primary anywhere in Kingston that's very good.

6:31 The third booth in, Preston (topped by Briggs!), was not nearly so good for Hiscutt.  I don't have a projection on this booth from past elections, it's a remote bush booth near the Gunns Plains tourist cave.  Pickin (SF+F) is currently on nearly 20%, I suspect that will drop when we get to the urban booths.  

6:26 Hiscutt has a large lead in a couple of early rural booths in Montgomery.  The Liberal vote is way down on the state election in these.  

6:07 Prepolls will be counted in batches by prepoll centre.  Montgomery has three prepoll centres.  Nelson and Pembroke each have one but there is also a Hobart prepoll centre which I suspect will report for all three (we'll see).  Please note that I aim to be cautious about calling seats before prepolls have reported unless things are extremely lopsided (which they may be in some seats).  Phone voting will be added as postals on Monday, ahead of (and probably unrepresentative of) the main batches of postals.

5:30 Projectinator ready ... I think ...

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Intro (12:30)

When too many elections are never enough, tonight we have the Tasmanian Legislative Council elections for the seats of Montgomery (Lib vs ALP 10.2%, vacant), Nelson (IND vs Lib 9.3%) and Pembroke (ALP vs Lib 13.3%).  These elections were delayed three weeks by a direct clash with the federal election (the first time this has happened) and have been much overshadowed by it.  These seats are important as the Rockliff Government seeks to improve its numbers for legislation to fast-track the proposed Macquarie Point AFL stadium, but after the party got wiped at the federal election and with the Liberals' polled lower house primary vote at a 21-year low, ambition for their prospects is in very short supply.  They've not contested Pembroke after three consecutive drubbings by Labor in the seat.  In Nelson it's generally expected that Meg Webb will retain and in Montgomery Casey Hiscutt (IND) is given a strong chance of succeeding his mother Leonie, who held the seat for two terms as a Liberal.  He is up against a former Senator in Stephen Parry.  

At stake is the current 8-7 edge for party members in the Council; a win by Hiscutt could restore the historically normal independent majority assuming no changes in other seats.  The balance of the Council between IND/Green members and Lib/Lab members has lately been of far more interest than the major party balance given the booming frequency of the major parties voting together (they did this in 90% of cases where someone could be bothered asking for a division in the last year).  

Live coverage of the counts will appear here from 6 pm and the TEC can be very fast; the first rural booths in Montgomery appeared at 6:24 in 2019.  A summary appears at the top of the page, seats will only be CALLED when I consider that there is no realistic doubt who has won.   For all seats I will, subject to getting the rusty old Projectinator working in time, be projecting votes for certain candidates as follows:

- Montgomery: Parry (Lib) and Briggs (Green) off the state election.

- Nelson: Volf (Green) off 2019 (I am suspecting Webb will devour a lot of the normal Greens vote at state level), Vermey (Lib) off the state election and the 2019 LegCo election, and Meg Webb gets the rest.  It is pointless to project Webb off 2019 because of the large number of candidates that year and her low primary vote.  

- Pembroke: Edmunds (ALP) and Allan (Grn) off Pembroke 2022 and Mulder (IND) off Pembroke 2019.  I can't see a valid basis to project Ritchie given her most recent run was against the Liberals not Labor.

The TEC announced as of early in the week that about 8800 voters had at that stage voted at prepoll centres and about 1600 by post.  I have not seen an update to these figures since.  

A change introduced this year is that "votes received by post before polling day will no longer be counted on polling night" because "The counting process now requires the Commission to verify that no elector has already voted through other means before counting postal votes, which is scheduled to commence on Thursday 29 May."    (I am hoping that means the counting of postal votes, not the verification).  So no postals til Thursday, hopefully we will see a good number of prepolls tonight.