Tasmanian Redistribution: Clark Must Expand, But Where?

I don't usually get involved in redistribution speculation and lobbying (I don't even have the time and skill to draw nice maps) but this one is particularly interesting to me and local.  A federal redistribution for Tasmania has commenced, with the initial suggestions stage closing on 7 November.  

Tasmania currently uses the federal electorate boundaries for its Hare-Clark system state elections, and if this continues (and no one has convinced me that it shouldn't) then the changes will flow on to the next Tasmanian state election, which could well be held before the next federal poll.  The purpose of this article isn't to support any particular option, or to dive into the finer details of which lines to put exactly where (rather beyond my computing skills for the level of time I have right now); it's to raise awareness of what some of the broad options are and some advantages and disadvantages of them.  

Unlike in the other states that may be affected by planned redistributions (SA and Queensland), entitlement changes or possibly expansion, Tasmania's number of divisions clearly won't be changing in this term.  So this Tasmanian redistribution is for keeps.  

The issue is that as populations outside the inner cities of Tasmania have increased while the inner cities have stagnated, Clark has drifted to a lower population than the other four electorates.  Clark is projected to be 10.5% below quota by 2030, Lyons 9.98% above, Bass 4.42% below,  Franklin 3.20% above and Braddon 1.73% above.  At the least the first three need to be brought inside the 3.5% variation from quota (or at least "as far as practicable") and this means that Clark should gain at least 7%, Lyons should lose at least about 6.5%, Bass should gain 1%, and changes could occur in the others.  

Modifying the northern boundaries of Bass, Lyons and Braddon has often not proved difficult and indeed Prospect Vale and Blackstone Heights on Launceston's south-western outskirts are currently in Lyons but would fit more naturally in Bass.  

Things get messy around Hobart because of the nature of Clark as a comparatively shrinking inner-city electorate surrounded on two sides by Franklin, a uniquely split division that straddles the River Derwent.  On projection the Kingborough/Huon part of Franklin on the western shore will account for 46% of Franklin's enrolment in 2030 while the Clarence part on the eastern shore will be 54%.  

I like to refer to Clark (where I have lived since 1982) as the People's Republic of Clark for its habit of being way to the left of the rest of Tasmania, not just in a two-party sense but also in a left-of-Labor sense.  It fell to left independent Andrew Wilkie in 2010, and Wilkie has since dominated the seat.  It voted strongly Yes in the Voice and the MLPS and was the only seat to elect an independent under the 25-seat system and the first to elect two Greens when the House was restored to 35.  In 2021 the state was left to hang on the Clark postcount to confirm that the Liberals had scraped two seats and a majority in an election Peter Gutwein had otherwise won by miles.  Clark is a seat of two main components - the inner city Hobart area which is very left and favours Greens and left indies, and the more historically working class Glenorchy area, a stronger area for Labor but where independents have also made a mark recently.  There is also a former Liberal enclave around Sandy Bay that in recent years has become tealified.  The Liberals are hopelessly uncompetitive in Clark at federal level, but can still hold two and dream of three of the seven seats there in state elections.  

It's not widely known - indeed I didn't know until a few days ago - that for a long time Franklin actually surrounded Clark (then called Denison) on three sides not two - from at least 1916 through 1983 some or all of the now City of Glenorchy was in Franklin.  Between 1969 and 1983 Glenorchy was split between Franklin and Denison, leaving Franklin as the eastern shore and two western shore rumps (I believe at this time Denison had much of Kingborough).  This ended in the 1984 redistribution, which gave the seats their current character.  Duncan Kerr captured Denison for Labor in 1987 and the broad left has never looked back since.  

At present the Kingborough/Huon part within Franklin quite neatly contains almost all of the large town of Kingston, with just its very northern fringe anomolously in Clark.  This neatly balances the Kingborough/Huon part and the Clarence part of the seats.  Clark sits entirely on one side of the river and its northern boundary is at the end of greater Hobart, makng a neat boundary with Lyons to the west.  But now, something's got to give.  The following are the main options:

1. Clark extends down the river

Clark takes a large chunk of Kingston/Kingston Beach from Franklin leaving Blackmans Bay in Franklin.  On the eastern shore, Franklin expands into current Lyons, for instance taking Old Beach and either Gagebrook/Herdsmans Cove or Richmond and surrounds (perhaps including Midway Point).  (The Gagebrook option has the demerit of breaking up Bridgewater-Gagebrook while the latter moves in rural areas that are a better fit with Lyons).  

The chief but not the only objection to this change is the splitting up of Kingston-Blackmans Bay into two parts of some sort, cutting through the core of the Kingborough municipality.  This leaves Franklin as more an eastern shore dominated seat with the western shore part a bit of a leftover and not really a full partner.  If Franklin takes anything in the Bridgewater-Gagebrook area it moves significantly towards Labor and also becomes weaker for the Greens, while Lyons becomes a more rural seat and moves towads the Liberals.  If Franklin takes Richmond and surrounds that's more benign.  

2. Clark extends up the river

In this scenario, Clark expands up the Derwent and takes New Norfolk.  This has the advantage of leaving the current Franklin largely intact and keeping the core of Kingborough united in Franklin.  But New Norfolk though not that far away from Greater Hobart really is a rural hub town more than a suburb of Greater Hobart and putting it in Clark disconnects it from its Lyons hinterland and is a weird fit in a city electorate.   This one would make Clark more Labory at the expense of Lyons, which again improves for the Liberals.  

3. Clark extends over the river

To extend two electorates over the river looks like carelessness but in this one Clark extends over the river at Granton and adds Bridgewater, Gagebrook, maybe Old Beach and a big chunk of Brighton (or something like that).  These outer urban areas do have a lot in common with the northern end of Glenorchy but this one disconnects Brighton from its rural surrounds and also leaves Lyons with a tail coming down into the Derwent Valley from the Central Highlands and not connecting particularly well, so I doubt that we'll see it.  This one again sees Lyons shed Labor-voting outer suburbia and makes the seat better for the Liberals.  

4. The radical redraw option!

Is it finally time?  Haters of the Franklin split, and there are many, will be plumping for this one in which all of the western shore side of Franklin goes into Clark.  However Clark then has to drop Glenorchy City, an option that will appeal to those desperate for an excuse to say "flanelette curtain" in a redistribution sub.  Lyons can't take Glenorchy or it becomes a seat of northern greater Hobart plus random rural bits with much of the east coast having to go into Franklin, so Glenorchy goes into Franklin and Franklin still straddles the river, just in a way that has bridges that don't involve going through Clark.  Is it really that much better or has Franklin evolved to live with being a split electorate?

The Redistribution Committee and augmented Commission are not likely to favour this one because it involves far greater movement of electors than the others, but the case for it is otherwise better than it has been before because of the issues with the other options.  If they did finally take the plunge then the new Clark would be a desert for the ALP for all eternity (not that they are doing well there now at the moment anyway) and the Liberal Party would struggle greatly in the new Franklin.  This redraw would also have dramatic impacts on the Clark and Franklin state independents.  Impact on sitting members isn't a criterion for redistributions but there would be a lot of scrambling for support bases if this redraw ever occurred.

There may be other options significantly different from the above four.  

For those new to this, it's worth mentioning the legislative criteria for the final decision:

* community of interests within the proposed federal electorate, including economic, social and regional interests

* means of communication and travel within the proposed federal electorate

* the physical features and area of the proposed federal electorate, and

* the boundaries of existing federal electorates in Tasmania, with this factor being subordinate to [the above three]

Party balance and voting intentions are not factors to be taken into account - but they have an obvious influence on what people may try to argue the decision should be.