2025 House of Reps Postcount: Monash

MONASH (Vic, Lib 2.9%, occupied by deselected ex-Lib IND)

Issue was whether Deb Leonard (IND) could make final two and whether she could win if so.  Leonard will not make final two.  Liberal retain.

Click here for link to Reps postcount hub and tallyboard page.  

---------------------------

I like to do posts about postcount seats that are not necessarily the most competitve but the weirdest, and in this respect Monash well deserves a thread of its own, though Calwell is giving it a run for its money.  

In Monash the Liberals disendorsed 25-year veteran Russell Broadbent, who immediately moved to the crossbench and eventually ran as an independent.  Broadbent had attracted attention particularly as a prominent member of the anti-COVID-vaccines/mandates movement but another factor was simply the desire for renewal.  The campaign saw some tension over One Nation how to vote cards - I haven't got to the bottom of the story but have heard claims that the Liberals printed a card on One Nation's behalf that turned out not to reflect One Nation's preferencing decisions (because they continued to recommend preferences to Broadbent in this seat).  

As I start this post the Liberals' Mary Aldred has 32.18%, Labor's Tully Fletcher 20.37%, second-time teal independent Deb Leonard 17.49%, Broadbent 10.15%, One Nation has 7.82, Greens 4.51, Legalise Cannabis 3.35, Trumpet of Patriots 2.39 and Family First 1.75.  

Off the 2PP preferences available before the seat was (perhaps prematurely) pulled from the 2PP counts, I project Aldred to be getting 46.6% of preferences ahead of Labor at the moment.  That means that if the seat finishes as a Liberal vs Labor contest Aldred will win; I would put her on 54.3% of the 2PP vote off current primaries, which may increase further - so she would win with a two-party swing to her, and the Coalition doesn't have that many of those.

The first question is whether independent Deb Leonard can get into the final two.  If she does, on current numbers she needs 64.6% of preferences to flow to her ahead of Aldred to win.  Given that Labor is only getting 53.4% of preferences (as a result of so many of them coming from Broadbent and One Nation as well as Leonard) I'm not sure if that would occur.  Labor to teal preferences tend to be not that much stronger than the other way round so this might end up requiring about 10% of voters outside the top three to have ordered the top three in the order Leonard-Liberal-Labor.

In terms of getting into the final two, Leonard currently has to gain 2.9 points in a three-way split of 30% of the vote with Aldred and Fletcher.  Leonard will probably gain off the Greens, but they don't have a lot of votes. Legalise Cannabis might not do much and she would have to get a lot of the gains off Broadbent and the three right-wing minors.  Here it is hard to predict the behaviour of voters who voted for Broadbent.

The count is currently at 79.4%.  The postals so far are strong for Aldred and weak for Leonard and there may be 10,000 of them to go.  Independents also often perform weakly on absent votes - the usual pattern in these cases is that the preference flow needed for the independent to win becomes too high.

There is likely to be strong flow - perhaps very strong flow - from One Nation to Broadbent.  While the gap from Leonard to Broadbent is at present too large for Broadbent to move into third, perhaps if it were to come down a few points he could do it - but that seems highly unlikely.  If he did do it he would be well behind Labor and I suspect unlikely to bridge the gap to Labor on Leonard's preferences.  

Overall, pending evidence to the contrary I think Aldred will probably win by being able to hold off Leonard on preferences narrowly if necessary; I think (revised) that Leonard has serious chances to make the final two.  However because of the exclusion order complexity of this count it is worth keeping an eye on.  

Monday 5 pm: I understand the AEC intends to do a 3CP count in this seat after adding more postals. 

Tuesday 9 pm: Commenter Wonthaggi reminds me that in 2022 the 3CP split off votes at the One Nation exclusion (not all of them theirs) was Leonard 50.91, Broadbent (Lib) 36.38, Labor 12.71.  I believe Broadbent was above Leonard on their how to vote card that year too, so that if repeated could be some hope for ya girl to fly up the rap charts.  

Wednesday 12:40 am:  I have seen a partial AEC 3CP count in which Leonard is narrowly in the final two but do not know how representative it is.  

Wednesday 10:40 am: How is 10:40 am later than 12:40 am? It does not make sense.  Anyway, as postals are added the getting rate for Leonard if she makes the final two has increased slightly to 64.9% - the question is will absents do their usual thing and blow that out.  The gap to Labor is 2.95 which is only up very slightly.

Wednesday 12:30 pm: The above-mentioned partial AEC 3CP count has Aldred 7898 (44.16%), Leonard 5107 (28.55), Fletcher 4881 (27.29).  I have obtained a list of booths but cannot exactly match it to primary vote totals because it includes postal tranches that I don't have exact numbers for.  Nonetheless on my estimates the votes included are slightly favourable to Leonard (by about 1.3 points) and slightly low for Labor by about 0.4) so it is actually looking very close as to whether Leonard makes the final two.  If she does make it, in the 3CP sample she would need 78.6% of the Labor exclusion, which is three-quarters 1 Labor votes.  In Wannon 2022 Alex Dyson got 80.9% of the Labor exclusion, which was 83% Labor votes; the Labor votes flowed to him at 82.8% and the non-Labor at 71.2%.  However this case is more complicated because the votes flowing to Labor at the 3CP stage would be less Green and more all over the place.  In Cowper 2022 Caz Heise got only just over 70% of the Labor exclusion.   I think Leonard probably does not get 78.6%, and also that the required rate will be higher anyway.  So it seems quite challenging on both fronts.  

Wed 3:20: I have seen a scrutineering sample of 3CP postals that has votes breaking to Leonard over Labor at the 3CP stage off everyone (but not especially strongly off any one source).  Leonard's gain rate on this postal sample was 0.095 preferences per vote, which is just about the required rate overall (not bad given it is postals in which Leonard is below average on primaries.)

Wed 8:25 Leonard is now out of the top two in the incomplete 3CP live count - I have not yet checked how representative it is.

Thursday: Leonard now out of the 3CP by nearly 1.5% in the live count, however there is still a long way to go with that count before it is complete. 

Friday: It is worth noting that Tom Connell (Sky) has called the seat for Aldred.  I think it is very likely Aldred will win.  

Friday 7:30 The 3CP released today has Leonard missing the final two by 968 votes with only 1200 or so votes in the count so Aldred has won.  I expect the AEC to unmask the 2PP count soon which will continue as a classic count.