EMRS: Government Trails Placebo Opposition

EMRS LIB 29 (-5) ALP 31 (+1) GRN 14 (+1) JLN 6 (-2) IND 17 (+5) Others 3
Independent is generic option - likely overstates support at actual election
Election "held now" would result in a very hung parliament

When Brad Stansfield tweeted the above spoiler yesterday it was easy to imagine what might have been coming.  At the recent federal election the Liberals were sent packing in northern Tasmania, losing Braddon and Bass with enormous swings and being thrashed in previously ultra-marginal Lyons.  There was a federal primary vote swing across the state of 9.3% to Labor and 8.4% against the Liberal Party.  Perhaps the federal election was a sign that the Liberal brand was more on the nose at state level than might have been expected and that Labor would be surging towards an election-winning position?  Or perhaps just the timing of the latest EMRS poll could see a degree of federal contamination such that state Labor picked up an afterglow from the federal triumph?  Well, no.  The poll is "wow!", unlike Peter van Onselen's infamous "Newspoll wow"s which were habitually followed by meaningless changes in the Newspoll.  But it is not the sort of "wow" that narrative would have expected.  

Instead, it's a tale that's been running for years - the ageing and stumbling Liberal government shedding and shedding more vote share and Labor still picking up little or nothing in this poll series.  Currently the government trails 29-31.  In August 2022 it led 41-31.   Tasmanians separate state and federal politics - strongly - and Labor is still not breaking out of the very low 30s.  The overall picture is that Labor is content to avoid rocking the boat, being as bipartisan as possible on wedge issues like the stadium and salmon farming, and wait for the government to fall over.  Presumably some point is eventually reached where the government is so on the nose that Labor support has to grow at least enough to make Labor the biggest party.  That said if we continue this trend indefinitely the crossbench will govern before they will.

EMRS describes this as the worst poll for the Liberals since May 2009.  It is worse than that.  In 2009 EMRS offered headline figures with undecided left in, which it no longer does.  The Liberal support in May 2009 based on the way EMRS does numbers currently was 36%.  The last poll that I can find with the Liberals doing worse than this on a comparable basis is March 2004, when they were on 19% with 23% undecided, which comes out to about 26. 

The big winner in this one is the generic "independent" column.  We shouldn't read too much into this, because "independent" has a history of running high when offered as a generic option in Tasmania.  In November 2023 independents were also at 17%, yet in the March 2024 state election they polled only 9.6%, despite a wide array of independents running in every electorate.  Even final polls substantially overestimated the IND option at that election, at least in Clark. It is also possible support for generic independents is being boosted by the federal election, especially the run by Peter George in Franklin.  However on that one if you take from column A you have to take from column B - if the federal result has boosted support for independents, why has support for Labor not also gone up much?

Disgruntled Liberal voters appear to be vote-parking in the independent column, though there could be more complex churn with both Liberal and Labor voters doing this and also some drift of support from Liberal to Labor at the same time.  The poll looks a lot like the government is copping damage over the stadium (given that the swing against it is strong in the north and given that the government has recently made the stadium issue prominent again), though issue importance polling showing it ranked as most important by 13% is not much assistance without knowing who so ranks it.   This narrative is also consistent with Labor picking up nothing much, since Labor also supports the stadium. The stadium was an issue that for a while had gone onto the back burner but the Government's attempt to fast-track approvals and the dropping of the public spending cap have returned it to prominence.  

However the stadium is not the only thing going on and this poll could also be interpreted as brand damage from the failed federal campaign or as cumulative damage from other issues.   (The stadium was there as an issue on the doors at the federal election but I believe it was a minor part at best of the federal swing, mainly driven by opposition to Peter Dutton and the lack of a tailored Liberal message for Tasmania. I believe the Liberals were hit particularly hard on health in the federal campaign in the state.)

The impression that this is some kind of dissatisfaction with the government's brand or performance but not necessarily a desire to switch to Labor is also underlined by the Preferred Premier numbers where in spite of his party losing five points, Jeremy Rockliff extends his lead over Dean Winter to 44-32.  That is hardly a big lead in the context of such numbers generally skewing to incumbents but it's very acceptable; it is certainly not a scream from the rooftops that the Premier must be replaced urgently by someone, anyone.  (Those comparing the stadium with the Gunns Pulp Mill fiasco which has many process resonances with the stadium may recall that Paul Lennon resigned on polling an EMRS Preferred Premier reading of 17%, albeit in a three-way split.)

I have little time at present because of the federal election washup and have not yet attempted to project this poll as a possible election result.  It is extremely difficult to do so with such a high Independent vote and given what we know about that not always holding up.  At an election "held now" the suggestion is the Liberals could struggle to remain the largest party but Labor would not be anywhere near majority, nor would they be likely to get a minority government not dependent on the Greens.  

Roll on this weekend's Legislative Council elections where unfortunately there will be no direct contests between the majors and we will have to draw shaky inferences about their brand conditions from how they go against independents, Greens etc.  Coverage of all seats here from 6 pm Saturday night.  Links to seat profiles in the sidebar.