CALWELL (ALP 12.4%)
Basem Abdo (ALP) vs Carly Moore (IND)
Abdo leading on primary votes during preference distribution
ALP retain
I should have given Calwell its own page from the start but the unique nature of the count was not so obvious from the early primary figures which I covered on the seats where indies may make the final two page. On the day after the election it was obvious that the very low major party primaries in a huge field in Calwell created an in-theory chance that independent ex-Labor mayor Carly Moore could get into the top two. However soon after that, another independent, Joseph Youhana, surged, creating a unique situation where even a three-candidate preferred count was of no use as it could not be known for sure which independent (if either though very likely one of them will) would make the final three. The AEC now has a distribution of preferences page up. This is a familiar process to Tasmanian audiences as the TEC routinely does this for Legislative Council elections where stuff like this happens (OK that was an extreme case, only four candidates have won from third in LegCo history), but a new thing for federal elections.
The primaries in Calwell are:
Abdo (ALP) 30.51
Ghani (Lib) 15.7
Moore (IND) 11.94
Youhana (IND) 10.73
Garcha (GRN) 8.29
Moslih (IND) 6.86
Toma (ON) 3.76
Del Rosario-Makridis (LCP) 3.16
Hawu (Aus Citizens) 2.92
Bengtsson (FF) 2.57
Issa (TOP) 2.46
Ragupathy (IND) 0.56
Peach (unendorsed - unregistered Socialist Equality Party) 0.54
On current primaries the victory targets for Moore and Youhana are 66.2% and 66.9% of all preferences respectively vs Labor, but those targets only apply if one of them makes the final two. It is not clear whether they will as there could be a Werribee state by-election like scenario where the primary vote scatters but preferences largely return to the major parties (the independent who finished third there picked up fewer preferences than either major candidate). So there's a chance this is all just a big fizzer.
However the weakness of the Liberal primary suggests at least some potential for enough support to pool to put one of Moore or Youhana into the final two. Moore would have to beat the Liberals by 9% in votes being thrown three ways between Labor, Liberals and her. Youhana would need to beat them by 11.5%. Both of these seem very achievable. As to which of Moore or Youhana would make the final two, I wouldn't have the foggiest. It is of some note that the Greens how to vote card, though it won't have much of a follow rate in Calwell, recommended Greens voters to put Youhana ahead of Abdo ahead of Moore. The Muslim Votes Matters card endorsed Moslih, and also had Youhana ahead of Abdo ahead of Moore. There is likely to be fracturing of preferences that makes it challenging for the Independents to win.
The Liberal how to vote card (as curated by
this beautiful ABC site that I have only just seen) recommends both independents ahead of Labor with Youhana first (I suppose I should note that in case of the seemingly far-fetched scenario that both independents overtake Ghani!) So if either indie does get over the Liberals they should count on a strong flow from the Liberals at least. The rest of the field may or may not be a different story.
Exclusion Updates
Tuesday 20th 2:30 pm The
first AEC update excludes Peach, Ragupathy and Issa. From these exclusions Moore is the big mover gaining 689 votes to Abdo 451 Ghani 358 and Youhana only 198.
Revised standings of the leaders Abdo 31.01 Ghani 16.09 Moore 12.71 Youhana 10.95
Revised targets to make 2CP: Moore 8.4 point gain from three way split (Lib/ALP/IND) Youhana 12.2 point gain
Revised all-preference targets if making 2CP: Moore 66.3% Youhana 67.3%.
Although the overall target for Moore has slightly increased this is a good start for her - if she makes the final two then she would be likely to get well above the asking rate on the final exclusion.
5:20 pm Exclusions of Bengtsson and Hawu. Moore did best on the Bengtsson exclusion (640 to 240 for Abdo, 355 for Ghani and 154 for Youhana), which was a promising sign given Family First had recommended preferencess to Ghani, but could have been partly gender voting. Hawu's preferences split heavily on what looks like ethnic lines with Moore gaining only 287, Abdo 784, Ghani 324, Youhana 628.
Current standings: Abdo 32.15 Ghani 16.85 Moore 13.74 Youhana 11.82. The count is going reasonably quickly.
Revised targets to make 2CP: Moore 8.4 point gain from three way split, Youhana 12.9 point gain
Revised all-preference targets if making 2CP: Moore 67.1% Youhana 68.2%
Note that Moore and Youhana effectively cross-preferenced on their HTVs, which I expect would have been little followed.
Wednesday 21st: Note that as the exclusions get larger in such a process they will tend to get much slower so there may be only one or two per day.
1:20 Exclusion of Del Rosario-Makridis. There was speculation Legalise Cannabis preferences would flow to the Greens but in fact they splattered with Moore again the biggest gainer getting 864 (the Greens got 673, Abdo 612 Ghani 247 and Youhana just 202, so Youhana continues to struggle on preferences.
Current standings: Abdo 32.83 Ghani 17.13 Moore 14.70 Youhana 12.05
Revised targets to make 2CP: Moore 6.9 point gain from three way split, Youhana 13.4 point gain
Revised all-preference targets if making 2CP: Moore 67.3% Youhana 68.9%
There are three more exclusions before we can expect to lose an indepdendent. In the 4CP split Youhana now needs to gain on Moore at a rate of 11.4%. This will need a strong flow from Moslih and Garcha, but that isn't impossible. I note however for what it's worth that Moslih and MVM recommended preferences to Abdo ahead of Youhana.
3:05 While I wait for the exclusion of the One Nation candidate, the candidate Luay Toma is something of a mystery as they have no One Nation profile page and were not photographed on the ON how to vote card for Calwell. Their S44 form suggests they were born in Iraq in 1957 and became an Australian citizen in 2022, and that they still have an Iraq citizenship that they were unable to renounce through Australian sources. They have a Facebook page that contains some general right-wing culture war type material. Interestingly Youhana is also Iraq-born (but renounced his citizenship successfully). Moslih is a dual citizen of Afghanistan who is in the same position as Fatima Payman (unable to renounce).
4:30 I have heard indirectly via scrutineers that Moore's position at top of a long ballot is getting her a significant haul of donkey preferences (where voters vote for a preferred candidate then preference from the top down).
4:53 Toma is out and the biggest winner is again Moore 1541 from Ghani 1255 Youhana 1042 Abdo getting not much 497 and Moslih and Garcha even less 325 each. As well as the above mentioned donkey preferencing effect this could have been the tendency of generic ON voters to preference indies rather than majors and also Moore's local profile. Moore is looking like mo(o)re of a threat now - as a generic contest I would doubt Labor survives here but maybe the seat's complex ethnic factors or a strong flow from the Greens perhaps via Youhana will save them. (To complete the picture, Garcha lost Indian citizenship on taking up Australian citizenship, Ghani renounced citizenship of Pakistan and Abdo is a Palestinian-Australian born in Kuwait who renounced citizenship of Jordan. Moore's parents and grandparents were all Australian.) I also wonder what sort of share of the Liberal exclusion in a seat like this Moore could reasonably get and if anything much over 70 could be difficult.
Current standings: Abdo 33.39 Ghani 18.53 Moore 16.42 Youhana 13.21. Garcha has 10.21, Moslih out next 8.24.
Revised targets to make 2CP: Moore 6.7 point gain from three way split, Youhana 15.3 point gain
Revised all-preference targets if making 2CP: Moore 66.9% Youhana 68.9%
Youhana 4CP gain rate on Moore required: 17.4 points (not easy with votes splitting 4 ways)
7:50 It is perhaps of note that Paul Erikson implied today that he was confident that Labor would win the seat.
Thursday 22nd 12:50 Oh wow. A massive flow of preferences (61%) from Moslih has put the Greens into fourth place and Youhana is eliminated!
Current standings: Abdo 34.40 Ghani 18.95 Moore 17.49 Garcha 15.26 Youhana (out) 13.90
Moore now needs a 5.01 point gain off Garcha and Youhana to make the final two, and now needs 67.6% of preferences to win if she does. Moore also needs to survive the Youhana exclusion, which won't occur if Garcha beats her by 16.05 points in the four-way split.
Youhana recommended preferences to Moore on his how to vote card. What happened here with the Moslih preferences is however bad news for Moore because it suggests a high proportion are following the Muslim Vote Matters card (or Moslih's own) which will mean that on the Greens exclusion there will be flow to Labor. That might mean that even if making the final two Moore will need too much off the Liberal exclusion.
I have found that during the campaign Moore was viewed negatively by pro-Gaza campaigners, including for saying that Gaza wasn't an issue for voters in Calwell.
8:00 No booth updates for a couple of hours, might be done for the night. There are claims circulating, some of which may be based on scrutineering, that Moore will get a pile off Youhana and move into clear second.
Friday 23rd 1pm: Which duly occurred, Moore got 58% and is now second, so it will be Abdo vs Moore for the win.
Current standings: Abdo 36.59 Moore 25.56 Ghani 21.20 Garcha (out) 16.65
Moore needs 64.6% of combined Liberal and Green exclusion preferences to win.
If the current Garcha preferences split 50-50 on a 2CP basis, Moore will need 76.1% of current Ghani preferences to win.
If the current Garcha preferences split 55-45 to Abdo, Moore will need 80.0% of current Ghani preferences.
If the current Garcha preferences split 60-40 to Abdo, Moore will need 83.9% of the current Ghani preferences (that I suspect would be too high.)
Friday 1:40: Antony Green has written "Scrutineer information provided to me indicated a strong flow of Moslih’s preferences to Labor before Moore and a relatively weak flow of Green preferences to Moore. which is why Labor seems to be confident of winning." Almost a third of Garcha's current vote comes from the Moslih exclusion.
I have seen scrutineering samples that indicate conservatively that Labor should get over 60% of the 1 Garcha votes (and I would expect them to do even better on Moslih to Garcia). This would push Labor to very close to 50 so it appears Labor will win the seat. I have also seen that it is unlikely the Garcha exclusion will be published today.
Monday 26th 11:37: Abdo has a massive 68.6% of the Greens exclusion in a three-way split and is on 48.01 with Moore now on 29.68 and needing an impossible 91.1% of the Liberal exclusion to win the seat. Abdo will win and Labor wins 94 seats, tying the Coalition under John Howard's 1996 record for the most seats won (albeit from a parliament with two fewer seats in Howard's case) and being the first government to lose zero seats since the Coalition under Harold Holt in 1966.
Tuesday 27th 11:30 The final 2CP reassignment of preferences between Abdo and Moore is underway and will bounce around somewhat before being final based on booths being stronger or weaker for given candidates. Currently Abdo is ahead 55-45 with 56% reallocated.
Wednesday 28th 10:30 pm: And that's pretty much where it finished up: 55.08 to Abdo ... and the most complicated seat was the first to have its full preference distribution published! A fairly weak 68.3% split to Moore off the Ghani exclusion.
Not sure how much impact it will have but MVMs how to vote had Moslih to Garcha to Abdo. probably a tiny possibility of Greens catching an independent but hard to imagine they would make the final 2. More significantly though it may mean weaker preference flows from Moslih to whichever indi finishes 2nd
ReplyDeleteI was looking at the primaries and thinking that Greens could possibly work themselves into the final 4, if they get a lot of those Cannabis primaries.
DeleteWell so much for that, it is pretty clear now that Greens will be eliminated before either Youhana or Moore.
DeleteWell bugger me, I was right first time
DeleteIf Moore won from 11 point something percent of the vote, surely that would be by far the lowest primary vote by a successful candidate?
ReplyDeleteEasily - the previous record federally is 16.63% by Arthur Hewson (Country) Macmillan 1972.
DeleteAssume you're referring to the Trumpet of Patriots exclusion when you talk about Family First's exclusion (Family First being next on the chopping block), and minor correction there that One Nation actually gained more than Moore did on that exclusion -- Moore gained 421 votes and Toma 533.
ReplyDeleteI tried my own exclusion guestimates, based on almost nothing but vibes and what I could find about the candidates on-line and in news, and the Libs hung on in the race to get in a flip for 3rd.
ReplyDeleteMoore finishing ahead of Youhanna releases Green and Molish preferences for the ALP, as hugamuga says, it's hard to gauge the impact without knowing Molish's booth coverage.
Any locals with knowledge?
At the booth i was watching Molish got around 110 votes and it seemed as though a little over 100 followed the how to vote card... I remember thinking at the time while watching "Wow."
Deleteactually just remembered he basically had two how to vote cards - his own and the Muslim matters vote card. Both had Basem above the Moore, Libs and Youhanna. Muslim maters had plenty of volunteers at our booth and i'd imagine most of his votes (at least at our booth) actually followed their how to vote card.
DeleteHow are the Green and Moslih travelling, so far? Do they have a shot at the unlikely lottery too?
ReplyDeleteThey're gaining more slowly than Youhana so I wouldn't think so.
DeleteSorry, should have checked myself rather than asking. Looking at the distribution of preferences to date - Garcha is due a hefty boost from Del-Rosario-Makridis (if you call it 70% of preferences she overtakes Youhana?) Granted Toma and Moslih won't help, but does she have a shot to survive longer? Needless to say, should be a Abdo win.
DeleteI'd expect a large amount of splattering in the Legalise Cannabis preferences off such a low primary vote. Would be surprised if anyone even got half of them.
DeleteI know of one primary winning shares than McMillan 1972 in state politics - Townsville West 1974 saw just 13.3%. Anyone know of any other state winners below 20% on primaries?
ReplyDeleteIn the Tasmanian Legislative Council Louis Manton Shoobridge won Queenborough 1968 off 12.0%. (Tasmanian LegCo is single seat but has had many contests with large fields of mostly independents).
DeleteAt the 5th exclusion Moore is about 500 votes ahead of my guestimate exercise.
ReplyDeleteWith respect to the ON candidate, I wonder if it is the case that candidates are able to stand as a candidate for federal elections regardless of whether they meet the section 44 Constitution requirements, and can even become elected unless someone contests their candidacy at the Court of disputed returns within a certain period of time after the election results are declared?
ReplyDeleteCorrect. The AEC has no power to vet applications for Section 44 complaince although a candidate who knowingly makes a false declaration can be prosecuted. An ineligible candidate can be declared elected and then their election can be challenged in the Court of Disputed Returns by petition within 40 days. After that the House of Reps or Senate as applicable can still refer them but both have standing policies to not refer any member unless that member omitted relevant information from their declaration, and even then there is a committee consideration process to go through.
DeleteThey can't be chosen for or hold office. I guess somebody could challenge their validity at any point it became known.
DeleteNo idea if the particular timing of the challenge might cause a re-count or a by-election. You'd guess the latter in both cases.
It's a by-election in all Reps cases of voiding, unseating etc (or even a special election which is in effect the same thing for death of a candidate before polling).
DeleteBased solely on the family name Toma, I'd infer that the ON candidate is from Iraq's Assyrian minority. So renouncing citizenship might have been problematic.
ReplyDeleteHis form also references working as an interpreter with US forces and his family being in danger.
DeleteLuay Toma is an ethnic Assyrian and so is Joseph Youhana
DeleteAnd Moore closes the gap further to Ghani further after the exclusion of Toma. After starting the count as 3.76%, the gap is now 2.11%.
ReplyDeleteAnd then there were 6. Have to say - Abdo is getting remarkably little of the preferences! Love your blog.
ReplyDeleteThe One Nation exclusion seems to have favoured Moore in a big way – 1541 votes to just 1255 for the Liberals and 1042 for Youhana.
ReplyDeleteI still expect a strong preference flow from Greens voters to Joseph. The Greens had decent booth coverage, and their voters are typically highly compliant with how-to-vote cards. That should be enough to push Joseph ahead of Carly, and with Carly’s solid booth coverage (fact), her preferences should then help push Joseph past Usman.
ReplyDeleteI don't know about Greens voters in Calwell specifically but in general Greens voters have much lower HTV copy rates than majors - about 15% in seats data-entered at the Vic 2022 state election. (None of the seats checked were similar to Calwell though). The high Greens flow to Labor in most seats is mostly from Green voters making up their own minds to preference Labor.
DeleteThe 8th exclusion of Moslih (IND) has been massively favourable to Garcha the Green candidate who picked up 61% of Moslih's preferences, 4571 votes, actually lifting them above Youhana (IND), who will now be next to be excluded. Moore also gained more ground on Ghani - the gap is now 1.46%. Standings now:
ReplyDeleteAbdo (ALP) 30905 34.40%
Ghani (LIB) 17023 18.95%
Moore (IND) 15719 17.49%
Garcha (GRN) 13713 15.26%
Youhana (IND) 12493 13.92%
Moore’s probably going to get a strong flow of preferences from Youhana (at least 55%, but as high 80%). His team had solid booth coverage across pre-poll and election day, so a lot of voters likely followed his HTV. Plus, she’ll pick up some donkey votes and support from Anglo or soft Liberal voters who see her as the better option out of who’s left.
ReplyDeleteAlso worth noting — the Assyrian community was determined to put Labor last after the party actively opposed the permit and construction of St Joseph’s Christian College, a major project by the Assyrian Church of the East. That backlash only intensified when the Chaldean Catholic Church broke ranks and publicly backed Labor — essentially endorsing a candidate over one of their own, and against the sentiment of their own community.
DeleteTL;DR: Moore stands to gain heavily from Christian and Assyrian voters who feel betrayed and shut out.
Hi Kevin, do you know if the legislation requires a strictly sequential elimination process in preference counts? Just thinking hypothetically — if Garcha had been excluded before Youhana, it might have resulted in an Abdo vs. Youhana 2CP, likely with a much tighter margin for Basem.
ReplyDeleteYes it does. This is a much bigger deal in seats like Grey where it is likely the Independent would have beaten the Liberal had they not been excluded in third. In the NT seat of Fannie Bay 2024 the Labor candidate would definitely have beaten the CLP had they not been excluded in third.
DeleteFascinating! the computer scientist in me is now wondering if this elimination algorithm actually captures the real will of the voters.
DeleteIt's arguable. Some people promote Condorcet (where the winner is the candidate who beats every other candidate on voter preferences one on one, with tiebreak provisions if there isn't one) but a problem with Condorcet is that it's hard to identify and scrutinise who is a likely seat winner in advance. Overall, it is hard to find a sound way to correctly reduce some of the three-way contests to a single clearly most deserving winner.
DeleteIt's a consequence of Arrow's Social Choice Theorem that's there's no voting method that can give us everything we want from from a social choice function. Any method we choose will fail in some set of circumstances.
DeleteThanks Kevin. Can you clarify that GK dropping from 56099 yesterday to 56090 today, and NB dropping from 56119 to 56115, is this due to successful scrutineers challenges ruling out previously counted votes?
ReplyDeleteAssume this was meant for Bradfield thread! (I cannot move comments between threads). The movements in Bradfield today have been on rechecking of booth votes. They are not necessarily challenges, they may simply be votes that on checking again have been noticed to be informal. Ballots with duplicate numbers are the most likely such cases.
Delete