STARTING POSITION ALP 78 L-NP 56 IND 10 GRN 4 others 2
(starting position includes notional new seat and 2022 winners for defections)
SEATS APPARENTLY CHANGING (some not totally confirmed):
L-NP to LABOR: Banks, Bass, Bonner, Braddon, Deakin, Dickson, Hughes, Leichhardt, Moore, Sturt, Menzies
GREENS to LABOR: Brisbane, Griffith
L-NP to IND: Calare
SEATS IN DOUBT (others may be added)
ALP Occupied vs IND: Bean, Calwell, Fremantle
ALP Occupied vs GRN: Wills
ALP Occupied vs L-NP: Bendigo (probable Labor win)
ALP Notional vs L-NP: Bullwinkel
L-NP Occupied vs ALP: Longman (maybe Forde and Petrie also though those look lost)
L-NP Occupied vs IND: Flinders, Monash, Forrest, Bradfield, Grey
IND Occupied vs L-NP: Goldstein
GRN Occupied vs ALP: Melbourne (Ryan not yet absolutely certain either)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We now cross to every journalist during this term who told us a hung parliament was inevitable, and also every right-winger who believes that polling errors always favour their side. It's too soon to say just how far off the polling consensus was (perhaos not quite as far as 2019) but Labor has won an increased majority, the first first-term government to do so excluding governments that formed mid-term. It's going to be a majority about as large as Tony Abbott's, if not larger, and we wait to see what comes with it in terms of the Senate.
The above is a provisional list of seats that appear to have fallen and seats that appear to me to be of most interest or doubt. Of these Bullwinkel, Longman, Forde and Petrie are the classic 2PP cases. Goldstein and Bradfield are straightforward Liberal vs teal 2CPs and Wills is a standard ALP vs Green.
Bean, Fremantle and Melbourne look like being seats that will become much clearer on realignment to the correct 2CP. Calwell, Monash, Flinders, Grey and Forrest are messy - all involve cases where an independent may or may not make the final two then may or may not win. I will be unrolling postcount threads tomorrow afternoon and into Monday dealing with many of these. I will be offline til about 4 pm Sunday because of a field trip commitment.
Posting this now and will add some more stuff soon, perhaps an early look at the Senate.
Early Senate overview:
The current Senate figures are very unrepresentative and we need to wait for them to settle down a lot, but these are some early possibilities:
NSW: In the live count Labor is on 2.62 quotas, but that's way ahead of where they should be based on the state swing. I expect this to drop back significantly and One Nation who are currently on 0.42 quotas could be in the lead for the final spot.
Victoria: The majors have two and the Greens have one. The final seat at present looks close between Labor, One Nation and Legalise Cannabis (Patten), but we will have to see how the LCP vote tracks as more comes in. Probably one of Labor or LCP will eliminate the other and the question is which, but there is no guarantee that the loser's preferences elect the other one as One Nation will do well on the preferences of right-wing minors - though maybe not as well as 2022 given all the infighting between them.
Queensland: The eye-catcher here is that Gerard Rennick is off to a flier on 5%. However he is still 2% behind One Nation, so at the moment it looks like the expected 2 LNP 2 ALP 1 Green and 1 One Nation. If Rennick can stay in touch with One Nation he might be able to benefit from Trumpet of Patriots preferences, but I doubt he will
Western Australia: This looks like another fight between Labor (3) and One Nation for the final spot. One Nation has a better primary vote this time than last time but a worse preference flow as the Liberals are short of two quotas.
South Australia: This was looking good for One Nation early in the night but Labor has done so well in SA that it could be that Labor will at least have the lead over them, and then One Nation will have the same issue as WA (no Coalition preferences). So there is a real chance of 3 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Green here.
Tasmania: Hard to believe the Liberals have managed to poll badly enough in my home state to put their second seat in doubt, simply astonishing. Earlier in the night I thought it was safe but now I'm not completely sure. There are 2 Labor 1 Liberal and 1 Green seats clear and then there is a 4-way race for two seats between, in order of possible primary position, Liberal, Labor, Lambie and One Nation. I think the Greens will drop back from their current 1.2 quotas but there is the possibility that even if in the lead the Liberals may end up being overtaken by both Labor and Lambie. That is, assuming Lambie survives against One Nation who she currently leads by 1.2%. One Nation has preferenced the Liberals and not Lambie on their card but virtually nobody will follow it.
ACT: David Pocock has absolutely smashed it. 1 Pocock 1 ALP
NT: 1 ALP 1 CLP
Monday Senate update 11:30 - Labor is now looming as a chance for a third seat everywhere except Queensland and One Nation now don't have any clearly strong positions outside Queensland, but are in the mix in a few places. The primary difference to my outlook above is that in NSW Labor continue to lead strongly in the live count; I have had some comments that they are doing well in some teal seats in the Senate where they are not getting swings in the Reps. Still need to look in great detail at these, starting with Tasmania later today.
Is Wills missing from the seats in doubt list here?
ReplyDeleteYes I was dithering about including it because ABC had it projecting to 51.9 ALP just before they switched off the projection, but adding it because Greens have the live lead.
DeleteParticularly interested in what might happen in Freo, Kevin. What are your thoughts on how it might go?
ReplyDeleteMy early thought is that it might go like the state seat in terms of things becoming harder for Hulett as absents and postals come in. And some Greens voters always preference Labor. I suspect Labor will win but we'll see.
DeleteAny thoughts on Bean? And did you know where Bean was prior to tonight?
ReplyDeleteI have been to Bean! (Once). Very interesting one, need to see the realignment really.
DeleteAlso, might be worth adding Bendigo to in doubt?
ReplyDeleteLabor probably should be OK there but done for now.
DeleteMy recollection from earlier Australian election nights is that independents pretty much always end up doing badly in late-counted votes (which I think are mostly postal ballots in Australia? could be wrong). Does this pattern also apply to teal independents, who have more of a national brand than random one-off local figures? Should we expect strong performances from the Liberals in the coming days in Bradfield and Goldstein, and be skeptical of independent chances against the ALP in Bean and Fremantle, just based on what's in right now?
ReplyDeleteIt's especially a thing with new independents, less so for incumbents or perhaps those with an existing profile. They tend to lack presence outside their electorate compared to parties, so they do badly on absent votes. They tend to also snowball support during the campaign, so they do badly on postals. I am sceptical re Fremantle especially for this reason (though she did run in part of the seat at state election level.)
DeleteIs Ryan still uncertain? The Greens are egtting monstered on postals amd could slip back yo third.
ReplyDeleteI suspect that won't continue all through the postal count, also Greens tend to do well on absents and there is a funny thing where preferences from minor right tend to go more to Greens than Labor in three-way splits but I am also not yet absolutely certain they have held on to Ryan.
DeleteDid the greens not go well because the LNP did so bad they dropped to 3rd in seats and Labor went to 2nd getting LNP preferences or has there votes spread out and not so concentrated in inner seats?
ReplyDeleteThe former is the core problem in Griffith and the latter is the problem in their other seats, but they do have a swing to them in Wills.
DeleteThing to note in Wills though is that the big positive swings are all coming from the north (more suburban) end of the electorate. They’ve barely budged in the inner city bits.
DeleteAm I missing in Griffith? - at the moment Labor look easily in front on primaries, are you expecting them to eventually drop to second? If so would that be on late counting or on minor-right preferences?
DeleteI expect Labor to win Griffith because the LNP will finish third.
DeleteThanks for all the hard work, Kevin! Much appreciated.
ReplyDeleteGreat job Kevin. Love your blog. The LNP occupied v IND's I am still keeping an eye on are Farrer (Ind very likely to finish 2nd) then Fisher and to a lesser extent Lyne.
ReplyDeleteKevin, re your NSW Senate comment of Labor tracking ahead of the swing. There are several Teal contested seats where the Labor House primary didn't move much but the Senate vote is way up - Bradfield and Warringah look to be up around 14%. This could be enough to throw the typical relationship off
ReplyDeleteThanks - I will have to look at this when I get onto Senate in detail.
Delete