2PP Aggregate: 50.2 to Labor (unchanged)
Seat projection for this 2PP: probable narrow Coalition win, not necessarily with majority (estimate 76-69-5)
As usual, this roundup is quite long so feel free to just read whichever bits interest you.
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It may as well be a recorded message: for the eighth (!) week in a row national 2PP voting intention has been around 50:50 and there has been no significant movement in the 2PP at all. Excitable noises are made about moves of 1-2 points this way or the other in this poll or the other (typically by the media those polls are associated with) but it is all meaningless babble as nothing has actually happened.
This week Newspoll came out at 50:50 following four weeks of 51:49 to Labor. Ipsos, which has tended to lean slightly to the Coalition but is bouncy because of its smaller sample size than other pollsters (and lack of artificial bounce-retardants, I suspect) raised the odd eyebrow with a 51:49 to Labor (by both kinds of preferences). Essential went to 50:50 after being 51:49 to Coalition last week and ReachTEL went to 50:50 as well. The two-point move in ReachTEL was mostly caused by volatility in their respondent-preference sampling; by last-election preferences the Coalition improved by only 0.7 points.
Tuesday, June 7, 2016
Sunday, June 5, 2016
The Five Tasmanian House of Representatives Seats
This article gives a detailed discussion of the five Tasmanian House of Representatives seats, which will be updated as needed up til election day. Two seats (Denison and Franklin) are generally not considered to be in play at this election. Three (Bass, Braddon and Lyons) are Coalition marginals that could change hands with swings of 1.2 to 4%. Current national polling points to a close federal election, although this may still change during the final week. If it does not change, then these three seats could be very important to the outcome of the election, or to whether the winner has a majority or not. As of 25 June, with the national swing estimated at 2.7% , my projections favoured one or two Liberal losses, with a possibility of all three seats falling. However, there is really not a lot of quality public polling data for the state. A late swing to the Coalition could make all these seats safe, while a late swing to Labor might see all of them lost.
To explain why these seats are tricky, it is worth looking at the strange results in the state from the 2013 election. Labor won 51.2% of the state's two-party-preferred vote, but only won one of five seats. The swing against Labor was the largest of any state by far (9.4%) but the uneven nature of it meant that Lyons, held with a 12.2% buffer, fell with a 13.5% swing. However Franklin, on a 10.8% margin, was easily retained. Causes of the massive swing included a downturn in the forestry industry, anger at the state's then ALP-Green coalition government over its "forests peace deal", and a correction from 2010 in which year the Liberals had campaigned very badly in the state. Both at the 2013 federal and 2014 state elections, Tasmania may as well have been two different states, with the anti-Labor mood extremely strong in the north.
To explain why these seats are tricky, it is worth looking at the strange results in the state from the 2013 election. Labor won 51.2% of the state's two-party-preferred vote, but only won one of five seats. The swing against Labor was the largest of any state by far (9.4%) but the uneven nature of it meant that Lyons, held with a 12.2% buffer, fell with a 13.5% swing. However Franklin, on a 10.8% margin, was easily retained. Causes of the massive swing included a downturn in the forestry industry, anger at the state's then ALP-Green coalition government over its "forests peace deal", and a correction from 2010 in which year the Liberals had campaigned very badly in the state. Both at the 2013 federal and 2014 state elections, Tasmania may as well have been two different states, with the anti-Labor mood extremely strong in the north.
Wednesday, June 1, 2016
Poll Roundup And Seat Betting Watch: Preferred Pet-Sitter Edition
2PP Aggregate: 50.1 to Labor (-0.1 since end of last week)
Coalition would probably win with a slight majority if election were "held now" (projection 78-68-4)
No significant move in voting intention detected in past seven weeks
In this edition:
Seventh straight week of no 2PP action
Old Newspoll's Queensland problem
Is Nick Xenophon Channeling Terry Pratchett?
Bill Shorten, Preferred Pet-Sitter
Corangamite seat poll
Punters Vs Polls - A False Dichotomy (For Now)
(Note: these roundups get pretty long, so feel free to just read the bits that interest you! I hope to have a detailed preview for the five Tasmanian seats up sometime this coming weekend)
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Coalition would probably win with a slight majority if election were "held now" (projection 78-68-4)
No significant move in voting intention detected in past seven weeks
In this edition:
Seventh straight week of no 2PP action
Old Newspoll's Queensland problem
Is Nick Xenophon Channeling Terry Pratchett?
Bill Shorten, Preferred Pet-Sitter
Corangamite seat poll
Punters Vs Polls - A False Dichotomy (For Now)
(Note: these roundups get pretty long, so feel free to just read the bits that interest you! I hope to have a detailed preview for the five Tasmanian seats up sometime this coming weekend)
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Wednesday, May 25, 2016
Poll Roundup and Seat Betting Watch: Not Even A Dead Cat Bounce
2PP Aggregate: 50.0-50.0 Dead Heat (-0.1 for Coalition since end of last week)
Coalition would probably win with small majority if election "held now" (seat projection 78-68-4)
No significant move in voting intention detected in the past six weeks
This was a week in which it seemed like things might be starting to happen! First Peter Dutton said some rather provocative things about (supposedly) illiterate refugees. This was widely regarded as a Lynton Crosby "dead cat" maneuver. The idea of that is that if you are hopelessly losing the argument, just say something ridiculous and disgusting and then everyone will talk about that instead of the issue you were losing. A tiny minority of calmer voices pointed out that there was no need for Dutton to "throw a dead cat" since there had been nothing happening in the campaign worth distracting attention from, and suggested instead that Peter Dutton was just being Peter Dutton. But still, perhaps all this was something voters would react to?
Then there was the NBN raid on ALP offices, a seemingly juicy matter that raised questions about the possible politicisation of policing referrals, and made people wonder whether the Prime Minister knew it was coming, and if he didn't know who knew, and who they told or didn't tell. This, the commentariat told us, could only end badly for the Government, since at worst it looked like an unAustralian denial of fair play to a party in the middle of an election campaign, and at best it still focused attention on the government's failure to even deliver a second-rate NBN for anything near what they said they would. Perhaps this then would finally set the polls alight?
Coalition would probably win with small majority if election "held now" (seat projection 78-68-4)
No significant move in voting intention detected in the past six weeks
This was a week in which it seemed like things might be starting to happen! First Peter Dutton said some rather provocative things about (supposedly) illiterate refugees. This was widely regarded as a Lynton Crosby "dead cat" maneuver. The idea of that is that if you are hopelessly losing the argument, just say something ridiculous and disgusting and then everyone will talk about that instead of the issue you were losing. A tiny minority of calmer voices pointed out that there was no need for Dutton to "throw a dead cat" since there had been nothing happening in the campaign worth distracting attention from, and suggested instead that Peter Dutton was just being Peter Dutton. But still, perhaps all this was something voters would react to?
Then there was the NBN raid on ALP offices, a seemingly juicy matter that raised questions about the possible politicisation of policing referrals, and made people wonder whether the Prime Minister knew it was coming, and if he didn't know who knew, and who they told or didn't tell. This, the commentariat told us, could only end badly for the Government, since at worst it looked like an unAustralian denial of fair play to a party in the middle of an election campaign, and at best it still focused attention on the government's failure to even deliver a second-rate NBN for anything near what they said they would. Perhaps this then would finally set the polls alight?
Sunday, May 22, 2016
Does The New Senate System Advantage Pauline Hanson?
Advance Summary
1. There is some thought about that the new Senate voting system may favour Pauline Hanson in the Queensland Senate race because she may poll a primary vote of 3% or so and then not be caught on preferences.
2. The image of Hanson's party One Nation as one that struggled under Group Ticket voting and would do better under optional preferencing owes much to Labor, Green and Democrat preferences defeating it in contests in 1998-2001.
3. Since then with One Nation's vote falling and the collective Others vote rising, it became just another micro-party and became able to attract good Group Ticket preference flows.
4. Had the 2013 election been a double dissolution, then based on the votes cast, Pauline Hanson would probably have won in New South Wales off 1.2% of the primary vote, overtaking several other parties under the old Group Ticket system to win.
5. However in the 2011 New South Wales Legislative Council election, where voters controlled their own preferences, Hanson was overtaken from an otherwise winning position and lost, even though a very high percentage of votes exhausted. This was even though her primary vote was twice as high as in 2013 and the quota was much lower.
6. The idea that Hanson is advantaged by the change of Senate electoral system is, therefore, completely incorrect.
7. Hanson is, however, one of a large number of micro-party candidates who have more chance at a double dissolution under the new system than at a half-Senate election under it.
8. Hanson's chances at the election are most likely to depend on her primary vote and what voters for other parties make of her candidacy, rather than being decided by how many votes are exhausted.
1. There is some thought about that the new Senate voting system may favour Pauline Hanson in the Queensland Senate race because she may poll a primary vote of 3% or so and then not be caught on preferences.
2. The image of Hanson's party One Nation as one that struggled under Group Ticket voting and would do better under optional preferencing owes much to Labor, Green and Democrat preferences defeating it in contests in 1998-2001.
3. Since then with One Nation's vote falling and the collective Others vote rising, it became just another micro-party and became able to attract good Group Ticket preference flows.
4. Had the 2013 election been a double dissolution, then based on the votes cast, Pauline Hanson would probably have won in New South Wales off 1.2% of the primary vote, overtaking several other parties under the old Group Ticket system to win.
5. However in the 2011 New South Wales Legislative Council election, where voters controlled their own preferences, Hanson was overtaken from an otherwise winning position and lost, even though a very high percentage of votes exhausted. This was even though her primary vote was twice as high as in 2013 and the quota was much lower.
6. The idea that Hanson is advantaged by the change of Senate electoral system is, therefore, completely incorrect.
7. Hanson is, however, one of a large number of micro-party candidates who have more chance at a double dissolution under the new system than at a half-Senate election under it.
8. Hanson's chances at the election are most likely to depend on her primary vote and what voters for other parties make of her candidacy, rather than being decided by how many votes are exhausted.
Wednesday, May 18, 2016
Poll Roundup And Seat Betting Watch: Neutrally Geared Edition
2PP Aggregate: 50.0-50.0 tie (-0.3 for Coalition since last week)
Coalition would probably just win election "held now" (seat projection 78-68-4*)
* see note re Greens below
So far a quietish week on the polling front, with Morgan and Essential the only national polls expected or seen. However there are lots of polling snippets to deal with, plus the belated appearance of actual colour in the betting section, so here goes.
The week saw a fairly comfortable audience-scored win to Bill Shorten in a "people's forum" debate watched by hardly anyone, which commentators generally called a draw. With the audience for debates screened on Pay TV basically containing no-one but political addicts, it's doubtful these debates have much influence on voting intention unless something really out of the box occurs. The week-to-week shifts in voting intention so far this campaign (and the mock campaign before it) are so small they could be explained by anything ... or nothing. A campaign about little of consequence meanders along in search of some defining Events.
Coalition would probably just win election "held now" (seat projection 78-68-4*)
* see note re Greens below
So far a quietish week on the polling front, with Morgan and Essential the only national polls expected or seen. However there are lots of polling snippets to deal with, plus the belated appearance of actual colour in the betting section, so here goes.
The week saw a fairly comfortable audience-scored win to Bill Shorten in a "people's forum" debate watched by hardly anyone, which commentators generally called a draw. With the audience for debates screened on Pay TV basically containing no-one but political addicts, it's doubtful these debates have much influence on voting intention unless something really out of the box occurs. The week-to-week shifts in voting intention so far this campaign (and the mock campaign before it) are so small they could be explained by anything ... or nothing. A campaign about little of consequence meanders along in search of some defining Events.
Sunday, May 15, 2016
ReachTEL Points To Tasmanian Status Quo
ReachTEL (federal) Bass 51-49 to Liberal, Braddon 53-47, Lyons 51-49, Franklin 54-46 to Labor, Denison 66-34 to Wilkie.
(See comments on 2PP estimates below)
Poll shows Lambie support sufficient for one Senate seat.
This weekend the Sunday Tasmanian is publishing ReachTEL polling of the five Tasmanian federal seats. The poll includes several questions and other questions will be released by the Mercury through the week. At this stage two questions have been released - voting intention and a question on the Budget and economic management.
Tasmania has three marginal Liberal-held seats: Lyons (Eric Hutchinson, 1.2%), Braddon (Brett Whiteley, 2.6%) and Bass (Andrew Nikolic, 4.0%). All were won from Labor at the last election so the new members should have some buffer against swings because of their new personal votes. It also has the Labor-held seat of Franklin (Julie Collins, 5.1%) and independent Andrew Wilkie's seat of Denison (15.5% vs ALP), neither of which have been considered really "in play". Until now there has been no released polling of these seats since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister. There have been small state samples aggregated by Poll Bludger, which have generally looked OK for the Liberal incumbents except for a wobble after the short-lived "state income tax" proposal.
This is the first large-scale poll we have seen, but it has a number of unusual aspects that make interpreting it challenging. While the Liberal incumbents could take some heart from it, there is plenty of room for other interpretations.
(See comments on 2PP estimates below)
Poll shows Lambie support sufficient for one Senate seat.
This weekend the Sunday Tasmanian is publishing ReachTEL polling of the five Tasmanian federal seats. The poll includes several questions and other questions will be released by the Mercury through the week. At this stage two questions have been released - voting intention and a question on the Budget and economic management.
Tasmania has three marginal Liberal-held seats: Lyons (Eric Hutchinson, 1.2%), Braddon (Brett Whiteley, 2.6%) and Bass (Andrew Nikolic, 4.0%). All were won from Labor at the last election so the new members should have some buffer against swings because of their new personal votes. It also has the Labor-held seat of Franklin (Julie Collins, 5.1%) and independent Andrew Wilkie's seat of Denison (15.5% vs ALP), neither of which have been considered really "in play". Until now there has been no released polling of these seats since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister. There have been small state samples aggregated by Poll Bludger, which have generally looked OK for the Liberal incumbents except for a wobble after the short-lived "state income tax" proposal.
This is the first large-scale poll we have seen, but it has a number of unusual aspects that make interpreting it challenging. While the Liberal incumbents could take some heart from it, there is plenty of room for other interpretations.
Monday, May 9, 2016
Poll Roundup and Seat Betting Watch: Election Called
2PP: 50.3 to Coalition (+0.6 in two weeks, -0.1 since end of last week)
Coalition would probably narrowly win election "held now" (seat projection Coalition 79 Labor 67 Others 4)
Updated after Essential
On Sunday the Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull, visited the Governor-General and asked him to dissolve both houses and call a double-dissolution election for the long-expected date of July 2. I hope the G-G asked him if he was absolutely sure the High Court would dismiss the Senate reform challenge case first, but in any case the G-G is in no position to be refusing such requests.
In the last week Scott Morrison delivered his first Budget. So far if there's a budget bounce at all, it's very small. We've got Ipsos at 51-49 to Coalition (up one on last month) but Newspoll unchanged at 51-49 the other way. We've also had two post-Budget appearances from polls not sighted for a while - a federal Galaxy at 50:50 and a Morgan Phone at 51:49 to Coalition. In pre-budget days we had a 50.5 to Labor from Morgan multi-mode (by last election preferences, 51-49 respondent) and a 52:48 to Labor from Essential, which has mostly leant strongly to the ALP since mid-November last year.
Coalition would probably narrowly win election "held now" (seat projection Coalition 79 Labor 67 Others 4)
Updated after Essential
On Sunday the Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull, visited the Governor-General and asked him to dissolve both houses and call a double-dissolution election for the long-expected date of July 2. I hope the G-G asked him if he was absolutely sure the High Court would dismiss the Senate reform challenge case first, but in any case the G-G is in no position to be refusing such requests.
In the last week Scott Morrison delivered his first Budget. So far if there's a budget bounce at all, it's very small. We've got Ipsos at 51-49 to Coalition (up one on last month) but Newspoll unchanged at 51-49 the other way. We've also had two post-Budget appearances from polls not sighted for a while - a federal Galaxy at 50:50 and a Morgan Phone at 51:49 to Coalition. In pre-budget days we had a 50.5 to Labor from Morgan multi-mode (by last election preferences, 51-49 respondent) and a 52:48 to Labor from Essential, which has mostly leant strongly to the ALP since mid-November last year.
Saturday, May 7, 2016
Legislative Council 2016: Apsley and Elwick Live and Post-Count
Apsley: CALLED (c. 7 pm) - Rattray (IND) has retained
Elwick: CALLED (c. 8 pm) - Willie (ALP) has defeated incumbent Taylor (IND).
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Sunday 8:11 pm: We have a preference throw in Elwick with preferences splitting 53.3:46.7 to Willie, which makes the current result almost the same (53.16% to Willie). It will change by fractions of a point but there are not nearly enough votes left for Taylor to have any mathematical chance. In Apsley Rattray is 20 votes short of an absolute majority. A provisional preference throw shows her gaining 36.8% of Green preferences (wow) to Clark's 35.9% and Hall's 27.3%. Then with Hall excluded, his votes go 68.9% to Rattray giving her a 67.3% 2PP over Labor if we ignore the few undistributed votes.
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Sunday 8:11 pm: We have a preference throw in Elwick with preferences splitting 53.3:46.7 to Willie, which makes the current result almost the same (53.16% to Willie). It will change by fractions of a point but there are not nearly enough votes left for Taylor to have any mathematical chance. In Apsley Rattray is 20 votes short of an absolute majority. A provisional preference throw shows her gaining 36.8% of Green preferences (wow) to Clark's 35.9% and Hall's 27.3%. Then with Hall excluded, his votes go 68.9% to Rattray giving her a 67.3% 2PP over Labor if we ignore the few undistributed votes.
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