Cross-poll estimate 56.3 to Labor (+1.0 since election)
I'm some way off putting out a 2025-8 term polling aggregate, partly because I am hoping that when the dust settles from the Bradfield court challenge in coming months we might get revised 2PP flow figures for Bradfield to enable more exact 2025 election preference flow estimates. And partly just for sheer lack of time. But this week's federal polls have been notable and there are a number of themes I think are worth covering off on quickly to put what is going on in historic context.
Newspoll
This week's Newspoll came in at 58-42 to Labor off primaries of ALP 36 L-NP 27 Green 13 One Nation 10 others 14. The Coalition primary is the worst in Newspoll history by two points. The previous worst was two polls ago in July and it was then the worst in Newspoll history by two points. The Coalition primary is now four points lower than it had been in any previous term.
No Government has led 58-42 since Kevin Rudd's led 59-41 in October 2009, and the last Newspoll this lopsided was Julia Gillard's Labor trailing 42-58 shortly before Gillard was removed in June 2013. No Government beyond its first term has ever led 58-42 in a released Newspoll 2PP. I convert one poll in June 1987 as 58-42 to the Hawke Government, one in Sep 1994 as 57-43 to Keating and there was a published 57-43 to the Howard government in September 2001. One of these was a rally round the flag for the government after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and the other two were the opposition disasters that were the Joh for Canberra Coalition split and Alexander Downer.
It's quite rare for a government to be close to three percent 2PP above its election result in Newspolls generally; beyond occasional apparent rogues the only other examples involved a weak Coalition run amid the Howard/Peacock years in Hawke's second term, some very strong polling for Labor under Paul Keating in late 1992 and some strong polling for the Howard Government in mid-2003 following the start of the second Iraq War. The late 1992 case came after the election of Bill Clinton as US President. At the same time the new Kennett government was arousing mass protests in Victoria and Keating launched his "unrepresentative swill" attack on the Senate as he announced that Labor would pass the GST if they lost the election.
This week's Newspoll also see Sussan Ley record a poor net -17 satisfaction rating. Ley is the fastest new Opposition Leader to record something this bad except for Downer, who took three weeks less to get to -31 after a popular start. The only bright light is that Anthony Albanese is only ahead by 20 points as Better Prime Minister, but it is increasingly apparent that the incumbent boost on that question is not what it used to be, at least not for this incumbent who still isn't polling all that well in his own right (this week net -5).
Other polls and One Nation surge
Also notable this week were polls by Redbridge and Resolve. Redbridge had a headline 53.5-46.5 2PP off primaries of Labor 35 Coalition 30 Greens and One Nation 11 each and others 13. While the headline 2PP was Labor's lowest of the term, the 2PP is actually much lower than I would expect by 2025 election preferences - I get 54.7 to Labor (noting also that the Redbridge data is from 19 Aug to 8 Sep and hence less fresh than Newspoll and Resolve). Resolve had 55-45 off primaries of Labor 35 Coalition 27 Greens 11 One Nation 12 IND 9 others 6; my estimate for this one is 56.0. A few weeks old now was a large Morgan that had a headline of 56.5 to Labor but my last election estimate was 55.1. As a simple age-weighted aggregate of these I'd put Labor on about 56.3, and on a last-election preferences basis Labor's lead is deflating a lot slower, if at all, than it is based on pollster-released 2PPs.
The latest One Nation surge has resulted in more false claims by Paul Murray who says it's the first time One Nation has polled ahead of the Greens (which they have only done in the one Resolve poll so far anyway). In fact One Nation did this frequently in their very early days, for instance doing so solidly between April and November 1997 when the Greens were only polling a few percent, and intermittently from then until ON support collapsed to an asterisk following the 2001 election. But this also happened in 2017 when the Greens vote was far higher but One Nation was frequently polling around 10% off dissatisfaction with Malcolm Turnbull's moderate style and views. Scattered through that year One Nation outpolled the Greens in at least thirteen polls (five Newspolls, four ReachTELs, three Essentials and a YouGov), and at times they would be ahead a few times in a row.
The 12% in Resolve isn't quite an all-time high for One Nation in a poll. Their strongest patch was around June-July 1998 when they polled two 14.5s and a 14 in Morgan, a 14 in Nielsen and a 13 in Newspoll; they also had a 13.5 in Morgan in May 1997. But their strong numbers across three polls this week are clearly significant even if the election result suggests they could be being overestimated. I would think that this could be explained by some combination of the poor shape of the Coalition, the Coalition having a moderate leader, and also recent anti-immigration protests.
Second Honeymoons
I've covered the history of new government honeymoons often on this site - they always happen and can last anything from a few months to most of a term, with the Albanese Government's falling just short of the longest ever. But re-elected governments often get them too. Historically re-elected governments generally get a honeymoon above their election result if the result was better than expected, but don't do so well if it wasn't. (This might partly reflect pollsters tending to make adjustments to their methods if their estimates fell short of the mark.) However, second or later honeymoons are generally much shorter; I can't find any from the last 50 years that go more than about six months, and these include some artificial cases (like 1998, when the Howard government's 2PP was deflated by One Nation preference recommendation techniques). The Albanese government is still running above its 2PP four and a half months in. Furthermore its 2PP was so high at the election as to stretch the definition of a honeymoon because it is so hard to run above it; in such cases I'll take anything above 54-46.
How Bad Is It?
It's obviously an eternity to the next election but the Liberal Party seems for now to be in something in the range from unusually big trouble and a total existential crisis. At times during the Howard years Labor was uncompetitive but federal drag still did its trick and Coalition governments at state level lost elections until all were gone. Currently the Coalition is unable to harness federal drag in three mainland states where it is polling abysmally (NSW, SA, WA) and is in chaos in the state where it should have its best chance, Victoria. (A free plug for my feature on Australia's worst oppositions, many of whom have continued to stake their claims since I released it). The federal Coalition is currently in disarray. Sussan Ley was inconclusively elected and internal opponents seem determined to follow the well trodden path: create disunity so that the polls are awful, then use the bad polls to get rid of her.
The problem is that the Coalition is being pulled in two directions. At the one end there is pressure on it to modernise and moderate and to appeal to broader, younger and more multi-cultural demographics. (Update: Even those who are vaguely receptive to that pressure are often poor at understanding it, as seen from Sussan Ley's announced support for a supposed welfare crackdown which will just convince more young voters that the Liberals are still the nasty party.) At the other end there are those who think it should follow the path of the MAGA movement in the USA or Reform in the UK and ditch mainstream moderate conservatism in favour of an aggressive populist nationalist right-wing path. Australians generally (though somewhat less united on this in recent years) have a leftish view on American politics and reject Trumpism so the MAGA types are deeply toxic, but it hasn't stopped them trying, and in particular running the line that the Coalition lost by not being right-wing enough. It might seem that the answer lies somewhere between the two approaches, but the Coalition tried that as a united front under Peter Dutton in the previous term yet still got smashed.
We are already seeing serious disunity against Ley's leadership with Jacinta Nampijinpa Price being kicked off the front bench for public disloyalty, shortly after endorsing the baseless and racially loaded conspiracy theory that Labor is bringing in Indian migrants for partisan advantage. (This in turn fuels the clearly false conspiracy theory that that's how Labor won the election - clearly false because virtually nobody who came here since Labor won in 2022 is a citizen yet). Following this there have been open tensions on net zero with Andrew Hastie saying he too will be off the frontbench if the Coalition doesn't dump support for it, and Jonathon Duniam saying there could be an exodus if support for net zero by 2050 is not at least made conditional. By the time I finish this article there could be more.
Is this just another passing phase where the Coalition just needs to unite behind someone, anyone, get on with it and wait for the incumbents to fall over? In 2009 the Coalition were polling terribly and appeared to be hopelessly split over the climate wars but were soon competitive thanks to Labor collapsing into internal turmoil under the slightest pressure from Tony Abbott. They can't expect that luck again. Or is this something far more serious? In the UK, Tories with an eye for the main chance are decamping to Reform in droves, though so far only one sitting MP has done so. I'm seeing views here not just in the alternative right and also in an increasing number of mainstream op eds that the Liberal Party is now conceptually and structurally dead and the answer is to rip it up and start again. But I can't see how that's an answer that wins government quickly, when a new Opposition party with a clearly different direction would be an obvious MAGA knockoff that would not be accepted by the bulk of voters.
I may add more comments if there is any other polling of note in the near future.
Interim Last-Election Preference Flows
Just noting here that these are the last-election preference flows I am currently using for converting polls. The Independent flow is adjusted for my estimates for Bradfield. No pollster has continued polling of TOP so Others categories including TOP are substituted as below
Also note my baseline 2025 2PP estimate is 55.26, slightly higher than the official 55.22.
No comments:
Post a Comment
The comment system is unreliable. If you cannot submit comments you can email me a comment (via email link in profile) - email must be entitled: Comment for publication, followed by the name of the article you wish to comment on. Comments are accepted in full or not at all. Comments will be published under the name the email is sent from unless an alias is clearly requested and stated. If you submit a comment which is not accepted within a few days you can also email me and I will check if it has been received.