Sunday, May 2, 2021

2021 Tasmanian Postcount: Lyons

(Link to main 2021 page including link to other postcount threads)

LYONS (2018 Result 3 Liberal 2 Labor)

SEAT RESULT 3 Liberal 2 Labor (called)

CALLED ELECTED: Rebecca White (Labor), Guy Barnett (Liberal), Mark Shelton (Liberal), Jen Butler (Labor), John Tucker (Liberal)

Lyons is as dead as it gets as a party level contest with the Liberals on more or less exactly 3 quotas, Labor on more or less exactly 2 and the Greens on just over half, and the rest is mostly Shooters.

Rebecca White has topped the poll with 1.4 quotas.  Guy Barnett is also over quota and Mark Shelton is on .72 quotas and will win, though it will take a while.


On the Liberal side we have John Tucker, elected on a recount mid-term, who is 1109 votes ahead of Meander Valley councillor Stephanie Cameron, who has outpolled her councilmate Susie Bower.  That would appear much too large a gap except perhaps for the presence of Bower, a fellow female candidate from the same area, whose preferences just might flow really strongly to Cameron.  However, Justin Derksen's could favour Tucker (as will Guy Barnett's surplus), and it's hard to see Cameron making up the gap off just Bower or making that much gain from anywhere else.  

On the Labor side we have a rematch of the 2018 contest between Jen Butler and Janet Lambert.  In 2018 Lambert started ahead but Butler eventually beat her, helped by Greens preferences.  This year Butler is 378 ahead of Lambert.  Lambert might do better on Greens preferences this year after her comments on Lake Malbena, but I'm not sure she'll be seeing many of them, as I think the loser of Butler v Lambert will get excluded before the Greens.  I suspect that Rebecca White's surplus will give Butler (as a fellow incumbent) an unstoppable lead and that the seat will be callable at that point, but we'll see.  

For those wondering about the Westbury prison, not a great deal to see there - there was a 5.6% swing against the government and a 7.1% swing to Labor in that booth.  Seems the government was able to reduce the damage there.  Updates as the count progresses.

Thursday: Butler's lead has contracted slightly to 358.

Friday: Butler lead is 361.

Tuesday: What to watch for:  I've written guides for some electorates still in doubt in advance of the cutups over coming days.  The Rebecca White cutup will be the biggest factor in the Butler vs Lambert contest; if Butler moves to a lead of several hundred (which is quite likely) then that will be just about all, but if Lambert manages to get a similar share to Butler then on we go.  In that case there will be a couple of minor Labor exclusions, and certainly the exclusions of Lane, AJP and Shooters to provide preferences between Butler and Lambert.  I was initially sceptical about Lambert and Butler both ending up ahead of the Greens but I now think that if Lambert is competitive with Butler this could happen, as the Greens' vote is not well focused on their lead candidate and will probably be very leaky.  

On the Liberal side Tucker with a lead of 1442 over Cameron is extremely likely to win; the only thing to watch for could be a very strong split from Bower to Cameron and if that doesn't happen then any sort of a contest is over.  Bower will probably be the first Liberal out, though it could be Derksen instead.  In the unlikely case that Cameron is really competitive with Tucker, the same issue comes up here as on the Labor side: could both Liberals get over the Greens and thus have those votes available as a preference source?  

Tuesday 11:30 No new numbers have been posted yet today.  

Tuesday 12:48 Still nothing!

Tuesday 1:10 White surplus distributed and Butler jumps to a 1221 vote lead over Lambert so called that one; Jen Butler will be re-elected.  

Tuesday 1:35 Barnett surplus distributed.  Tucker leads Cameron by 1466 and I am only still following this in case of an exceptional preference flow between the two female Meander Valley candidates when Bower is excluded.  It looks like Bower will now be the first Liberal excluded but this is some time away.

Wednesday 10:05 The exclusion of Bower is happening now and this should make it clear whether or not there could be any threat at all to Tucker.  

12:20 A serious gain by Cameron on Bower's votes, but she is still 823 behind.  Now we have the exclusion of Derksen, then Di Falco (Shooters) and the last chance for Cameron if still competitive would be the Greens.  That is, if Cameron can get ahead of them, which is currently not certain; she would at least need a decent split off Derksen.  Tucker is still well placed but if Cameron can make the final count then it will come down to Greens voters who have voted all the way through.

12:55 And the Derksen preferences reverse all Cameron's gains making it doubtful whether Cameron can now even get over the Greens.  Even if she did she would need an enormous split of their votes that went all the way through to win.

4:30 All over now as Cameron has not got over the Greens and the only remaining votes she could get over on are Labor leakage which will not help her strongly enough.  Lambert is excluded and Tucker will win the final spot after Cameron is excluded.

Thursday midday: Distribution finished, Tucker wins by half a quota after Cameron's partial exclusion.  All incumbents re-elected in Lyons, the first all-incumbent result since Braddon, Franklin and Lyons 2006.

6 comments:

  1. Excellent work Kevin, and thank you. Thanks to you I think I am finally getting my head around Hare-Clark.

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  2. Hi Kevin - sorry to be posting this under a current election post, but do you know where I can access a list of Tasmanian minority governments since Federation or at least post-1945. A Google search doesn't seem to provide me with a list of the number of minority governments Tasmanians have had. It seems to me, that Tasmanians haven't had a very large number of minority governments, given that you might expect Hare-Clark to bring about hung parliaments frequently. Thanking you in advance.

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    1. Easiest way is just to scroll through the results by year on either Wikipedia or the Tas Parliament website (https://www.parliament.tas.gov.au/tpl/Elections/ahares.htm). There were a number of deadlocked parliaments where the government had exactly half the total number of MPs and for a while there was a rule in these that the side that lost the primary vote provided the Speaker thus giving the side that won the primary vote a floor majority. The most recent non-majority parliaments are 2010-4, 1996-8, 1989-92 and 1969-72 but there were a lot more of them mid last century than more recently.

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    2. Thanks for that, Kevin. That gives me a good start. Cheers.

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  3. Hey Kevin,

    Surely Stephanie Cameron can't get in now?

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    1. Correct. Sorry I've been preoccupied with Clark!

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