Have Tasmanian Local Council Attrition Rates Increased?

While looking at a few of the larger Tasmanian councils in preparation for an interview I was surprised by how few incumbents were recontesting in some of the councils.  Launceston, with only seven out of 12 recontesting, and Glenorchy with only five out of ten, especially caught my eye.  Hobart with 11 out of 12 recontesting started to look unusual.  I couldn't help wondering if the proportion of councillors throwing in the towel in Tasmanian local government elections was rising, and as if I didn't have enough to do, I couldn't resist investigating it.

This is what I found.  The following numbers may have some slight errors (eg if I have been tripped up by a councillor's name changing without my knowledge) but any errors won't greatly affect the overall picture.

The 2014-8 term was the first four-year term for councils that was formed by all-in-all-out elections.  The 2018-22 term has also featured all-in-all-out elections but a noticeable difference is that in the 2022 election, voting is compulsory.  One council (Glenorchy) had its 2014-8 term shortened by several months and its 2018-22 term lengthened after an election was called early to fix a council that had become dysfunctional.  

Tasmania has 263 council seats across 29 councils.  In the 2014-8 term:

* Of the original 263 councillors, at least 24 resigned during the term, 4 died in office, one was disqualified and about 58 retired at the end of the term (at least one to contest a different council without success).  Seven resignations were because of being elected to state or federal parliament.  The retirement count includes councillors on the sacked Huon Valley council if they did not contest in 2018.  I may have also counted some very late resignations (where a councillor was not replaced) as retirements.

* 28 councillors were elected on recounts or by-elections (this number is not identical to the number of original councillors departing mid-term because not all vacancies are filled, but on the other hand a replacement councillor can also vacate and cause another vacancy).  Of these eight retired at the 2018 election and one died in office.  

* In all, 176 original and 19 replacement councillors contested the 2018 election, for a total of 195 (74.1%) (Of these, 37 original and 7 replacement councillors lost their seats.)

* Of the 29 original Mayors, four resigned during the term (including two elected to state Parliament and one to the Senate).  One died in office.  Two stood down from the mayoralty at the end of their terms but were re-elected as councillors.  Five retired from council altogether at the election.  

* In all 17 original mayors recontested (four lost) and all five replacement mayors also recontested (two lost with one losing their seat as well), so 22/29 mayors (75.9%) as at election time recontested.

In the 2018-22 term:

* At least 28 original councillors resigned during the term (including five elected to state or federal parliament).  One died in office and three were disqualified.  About 72 have retired at the election (including one elected to state parliament). I may have counted some very late resignations (where a councillor was not replaced) as retirements.

* 36 councillors were elected on recounts or by-elections.  Of these six are retiring at the election, two resigned and one was disqualified.  

* In all, 159 original and 27 replacement councillors are recontesting at the 2022 election, for a total of 186 (70.7%).  One original councillor is also contesting from off council after being disqualified during the term.

* Of the 29 original Mayors, nine resigned during the term (including two elected to state parliament and one to the House of Representatives).  Eight others are retiring at the election. 

* Of eight replacement Mayors, one is also retiring at the election, so in total 12 original and seven replacement Mayors are recontesting mayoral positions, for a total of 19/29 (65.5%) recontesting.  (NB Bec Enders resigned very late in the term and was replaced only by an Acting Mayor, who is running for Mayor, so one could say 20/29 recontesting.)

Overall therefore there has been a decline in the rate of both Councillors (especially original councillors) and Mayors (especially original Mayors) recontesting at this election.  It's not a massive difference, however, and even the difference in the rate of recontesting original councillors is not quite statistically significant.  If there is some underlying cause in the decline, there are many things it might be.  There was no change in the number of candidates running for Councils overall.  

Some examples 

At the tranquil end of the scale has been the West Tamar Council, which in 2014-8 had all nine original councillors not only serve their full terms but also be re-elected!  (And not for want of opposition either; they beat 13 other candidates.)  In 2022 West Tamar again has all nine sitting councillors recontesting (one having been elected on a recount during the term).  

Kentish 2018 (two defeated) also saw all nine original councillors see the term out and recontest.  George Town and Derwent Valley also had no retirements at the 2018 election but saw five and three sitting councillors respectively kicked out by voters.  (In general the fewer vacant seats the more one would expect some incumbents to lose, but five is a lot.)

On the other hand, Glenorchy and Huon Valley can't seem to stay out of trouble.  The original 2014-8 Huon Valley council was sacked in late 2016 and only one member of it contested the 2018 election (that one, Mike Wilson, was re-elected only to be disqualified over an enrolment issue mid-term).  The 2018-22 term has seen a major staffing scandal and seven of the nine sitting councillors have retired at the election.  

The Glenorchy 2014-8 council was suspended with an early whistle eventually being blown on its term after Kristie Johnston (now a state MP) had won the mayoralty by a large margin but lacked the support of the council.  The former old guard was the subject of an excoriating 313 page Board of Inquiry report and four councillors threw in the towel while another two were booted at the extremely lopsided early 2018 election.  Of the eight Team Kristie members elected in 2018, only three are contesting the 2022 election, and one of those (Kelly Sims) is now opposed to the Mayor Bec Thomas (one of the other two.)  At this election, several former Glenorchy councillors are also seeking to return.  This has created some surprise from observers who were not aware that zombies and skeletons are allowed to run for local council and are concerned whether other undead classes listed in the Dungeons and Dragons Monster Manual might also be permitted.  

The Derwent Valley Council has also seen remarkable turnover with only three of the original eight councillors lasting the term (one then retiring).  Four original councillors including the Mayor resigned for various reasons and one was disqualified, and one of their five replacements was disqualified as well, so the council has in all had six replacement processes (five recounts and a by-election).  

I will be covering the Council election counts next week with a detailed article for Hobart and a separate less detailed article covering general results and several other councils.