STATE LOWER HOUSE SUMMARY
SEATS WON ALP 56 L-NP 28* Green 4 IND 0
IF ALL CURRENT LEADS/EXPECTED LEADS HOLD ALP 56 L-NP 28* Green 4 IND 0
* includes Narracan subject to being retained at supplementary election
Seats covered previously:
(Bass won by Labor)
(Hastings won by Labor)
(Pakenham won by Labor)
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Welcome to my postcount coverage after the Victorian election has results in an unsurprising Labor majority, but a more emphatic one than anyone much expected. There has been a two-party preferred swing to the Coalition of about 3%, but it has fallen inefficiently in safe Labor seats, leaving the government about where it started. Polls look to have been rather accurate (Newspoll very accurate at this stage) but instead of underperforming its polling, the government has overperformed it.
Only eight or nine seats appear to have changed hands. Labor's 2018 boilovers in Hawthorn and Nepean have returned to sender (Hawthorn subject to confirmation), Labor has gained Ripon after a redistribution, and the Liberals have had a shock loss in the re-created district of Glen Waverley (formerly mostly Forest Hill). Then again, Glen Waverley's not such a shock given the incumbent of sorts kicked up a stink about vaccines. The Liberals may also lose Hastings. After a wild ride on election night what looked like a flood of Green gains has ended up at just one so far - Richmond where the Labor MP retired, the Greens stopped running a terrible candidate, the Labor candidate was dogged by questions over her claimed Yorta Yorta heritage and the Liberals preferenced the Greens. The other three involved Nationals wiping out the rural independents (and gaining notionally Labor Morwell after the third independent retired) in the first cases of sitting INDs losing after a full term as such since SA 2014.
While the Nationals have done rather well, the result is a disaster for the Victorian Liberals who have gone more or less nowhere in seat terms despite the Andrews Government being four years older and despite the federal government having changed. It's likely that the strong start for the Albanese Labor Government has greatly assisted its state colleagues but even so this is a remarkable seat result for Labor, and yet another case where media pundits have talked up the chance of a hung parliament only for nothing like it to happen. At state and federal elections this is the 15th consecutive majority government, and twelve of those campaigns saw serious media speculation about a non-majority result.
This article covers classic postcount seats that are between Labor and the Coalition. At the moment there are only two three of them but others may conceivably narrow and be added. It should be noted that at this stage the 2PP counts are rather rough and substantial errors are still quite likely, some of which could shift seats in and out of the close seat list.
Bass (ALP -0.7%)
The redistributed and notionally Liberal seat of Bass was a writeoff in seat betting but Labor's Jordan Crugnale begs to differ and she leads Liberal Aaron Brown by 225 votes (50.36%) with 67.4% counted. Postals so far have broken 58-42 to Brown; there are 3770 outstanding but not all will arrive and the flow in postals to the Coalition often weakens later in the count. There are several thousand prepolls to be added; prepolls have so far broken 52.3 to Labor. My initial impression is that Labor's lead here is fragile.
Tuesday 7:50 The ABC site is showing 70.8% counted and is presently ahead of other sources. Whatever has gone in has broken 835-663 to Brown and wiped Crugnale's lead down to 53 votes (50.08%). If it's postals, that's no great surprise, but otherwise that's not good news for Labor. (Update: it was prepolls.)
Wednesday: Crugnale gains from somewhere (not sure where, perhaps more prepolls as very few absents counted) and now leads by 220 votes (50.32%).
Friday evening: Crugnale leads by 148.
Saturday night: Crugnale leads by 189.
Monday night: Crugnale 210 ahead, so only the preference distribution to go where something odd would have to happen for Labor not to win. Full distribution on Thursday.
Friday: Crugnale wins by 202.
Hastings (Lib -0.001%) - assumed Labor win
Hastings was redistributed and notionally Labor by the coating of a whisker, but a further hit to the Liberals was the retirement of 16-year incumbent Neale Burgess. The Liberals' Briony Hutton has also had a high-profile challenger to content with in Labor's Paul Mercurio, of Strictly Ballroom and Dancing With The Stars fame (among others). At present Mercurio leads by 470 votes (50.67%) with 75.9% counted. Postals thus far have broken only very weakly to Hutton (51-49); there are at most about 3300 to go but not that many will arrive. The prepoll count is also relatively advanced, only about 3000 short of the recorded total. At this stage it's not obvious where Hutton might get the votes from to trip up Mercurio's dancing shoes.
Tuesday 7:50 Up to 79.1% counted on the ABC site and Mercurio leading by 473.
Wednesday morning There seems to have been a rechecking correction in Mercurio's favour as he is now leading by 561. Looking strong for Labor.
Wednesday afternoon: Mercurio now 659 ahead.
Wednesday night: After a thorough check of the booth and 2PP data I do not see anything that looks like errors in this seat. With the very weak break on postals (in fact Mercurio is so far winning them) I don't see how he can lose and I will only be covering this seat further if it closes up by lots.
Pakenham (ALP 2.2%, new seat)
The new seat of Pakenham is an interesting one because it is a Labor seat that is made of bits of seats that were Liberal-held going into the 2018 election, meaning that Labor has an effective personal vote advantage by no longer competing against Liberal incumbents. But it's outer-suburban and more or less on the swing line even with a personal vote correction and ... it's very close as I start this entry at 5:30 on Sunday afternoon. It was showing with a substantial Labor lead (51.6%) but this was based on an incomplete prepoll (HT
informed observer on Twitter) and with this added, the margin has come down to a Labor lead of ... eight votes! The battle is between Emma Vulin (Labor) and David Farrelly (Liberal). Weirdly, Vulin leads on primaries by 1% (34.0-33.0) so I'm wondering what's going on with preferences in this seat, beyond a not terribly high Green vote. (The third-place independent Brett Owen is a local councillor). Also this count is very incomplete at a mere 71.1% so there's a lot to go in this one.
There are about 4000 postals outstanding, some of which won't arrive, and the prepoll count is rather advanced now. Both postals and prepolls have broken weakly so far (52-48 to Liberal) in this seat.
More seats may be added to this page. Non-classic seats are being added on other pages.
Wednesday: Farrelly now in front 50.32% 2PP (180 votes) after more prepolls.
Thursday morning: Farrelly now ahead by five votes 17961-17956. This appears to be Labor doing well on postals which are now showing an overall 50.9-49.1 break to Farrelly. As with Hastings a weak performance on postals is not doing the Liberals any favours here.
Friday 5 pm: Amusingly Pakenham is currently tied 18267 all in the check count.
Saturday 7 pm: Farrelly ahead by six.
Sunday 5:10: Back and forth it goes, Vulin now ahead by 13 on the ABC site with a good chance of a recount.
Sunday 7:50 But now the biggest gap for some time, Farrelly by 93. There is a notable discrepancy between the rechecked primaries, which have Farrelly only ahead 6906-6731 on early votes, and the original primaries, which have him only ahead 7155-6596 (there is also a smaller issue with ordinary votes). I believe this means Vulin will actually be ahead by hundreds of votes once the issue is corrected in the distribution of preference, based on similar events in the 2018 Ripon count. Notably the 2PP quick count vote totals and informal totals match the original count but not the recheck. This may also explain a tweet by Julian Hill on 2 Dec where he said that Vulin was hundreds of votes ahead at a time when the count was showing as tied.
(NB During Monday my comments re the above were incorrectly overwritten with a previous draft, it has been my view since late Sunday night that Vulin is probably in fact ahead.)
Distribution of preferences Wednesday.
Wednesday: distribution of preferences finishes tomorrow.
Thursday: Vulin reporting on Facebook that she has won. (Which she has by 307 votes.)
What implication could a lack of ballot papers on hand at ballot places, have? Is there a formula for the number of people who attempted, but failed to vote, vs the margin of win/loss of the 2pp? Some metro booths had directed people away to other nearby metro booths as there were insufficient ballot papers. I'd imagine voters if told in Queue, would make the effort, but don't know if the same applies to rural booths.
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