Victorian 2022 Postcount: Teal Seats (Hawthorn, Mornington)

This post follows post-counting in seats being contested between the Liberal Party and teal independents.

The Victorian election has been a shocker for independents.  Firstly they've failed to replicate the 2.6% swing to them at the federal election and remained on 6% of the primary vote (as correctly picked by Resolve in their final poll which was the only final poll to offer a clear demarcation of "independents").  Secondly they've been unlucky with the distribution of that vote, and look like they could come away with about five second places but no wins.  The rural seats of Benambra and Mildura closed up in late counting last night, but Benambra is 78.5% counted so I greatly doubt it's going to move into my frame.  There are two seats where teals are currently trailing by not very much that I will cover here.  In Kew, the Liberals' smart preselection of a female candidate likely to appeal to teal voters in Jess Wilson has succeeded in warding off the teal challenge.  Teals have also failed to register any vote of consequence in a few seats where they were touted as contenders, especially Brighton and Caulfield.  

One might say the poor result of teals at this election is because they were a federal protest movement with no relevance to a state Labor government, or because they were unable to be as well-funded as the federal teals.  I think there's more though, and I was especially intrigued by the teals picking a prominent fight with the VEC over how-to-vote cards.  The teals won that fight and rightly so, but the fact that they were spending time and energy on that suggested that either they couldn't find more important issues to prioritise or else they weren't prioritising them.  I did wonder about the tactical wisdom of it at the time.

Hawthorn (ALP vs Lib 0.6%)

Hawthorn is the scene of John Ormond Kennedy's unexpected 2018 win over then Shadow Attorney General and potential future leader John Pesutto.  Kennedy was never expected to retain the seat and the events of the federal election saw Hawthorn attract attention as somewhere where a teal might win if Labor didn't.

With just over 70% counted, standings are Pesutto (Lib) 43.4%, Kennedy (Labor) 21.4, Lowe (IND) 21.3, Savage (Greens) 10.0 with 3.9% between Animal Justice, Liberal Democrats, Labour DLP and Family First.  This pans out to a 2CP lead for Pesutto of 50.7-49.3; at present Pesutto is getting 20.7% of preferences.  There are still about 4300 postals outstanding (not all of which will arrive) and thousands of prepolls.  Postals so far have broken 65-35 to Pesutto; this flow will probably soften but it won't take much more of this action to make him safe.  I expect Pesutto to win easily from here and am only keeping an eye on it in case there is an uncounted prepoll place that might show a large move back.  Although Kennedy is currently second, it is rather likely that Green preferences will push Lowe into second (unless Kennedy somehow gets, say, 3% in front) and even if Kennedy stays second there is no prospect of Labor getting a preference flow good enough to win.

Wednesday: Prepolls have pushed Pesutto out to a lead near 1000 (51.3%); I'll keep an eye on it and reactivate this section if it gets much closer but in all probability that's the end of that one as a contest.

Tuesday: Lowe actually failed to make the 2CP by 106 votes (though the primary vote gap was just 2.13%) and Pesutto defeated Kennedy 51.7-48.3.  The flow from Lowe to Kennedy was 76.5%, though this includes votes for Lowe that were 1 for earlier excluded candidates (eg Greens).

Mornington (Lib vs ALP 5.0%)

Mornington is vacant after 16-year Liberal incumbent David Morris lost preselection and retired.  The Liberal candidate is former federal MP Chris Crewther, who lost Dunkley in 2019 after a redistribution and didn't get preselected for a rerun.  Crewther's preselection has attracted controversy amid claims of inflitration/stacking by the religious right.  

The current state of play in Mornington is very similar except that it is more counted at 78.1%.  Crewther (Lib) has 43.1%, Kate Lardner (teal challenger) has 23.3, Georgia Fowler (Labor) 21.8, the Greens have 5.5 and Freedom Party, Family First, Animal Justice and a minor Independent have the rest.  Crewther is getting 21.1% of preferences and currently has 50.24% 2CP (a lead of 177 votes).  At the moment this lead is likely to expand with remaining postals (potentially 4100 outstanding though some will not arrive) while there are not that many prepolls to be added as in other seats.  The usual script is that INDs do badly on before the day votes and if that plays out here Crewther should win.  

Tuesday 8:00 ABC now showing 81% counted and Crewther up by 337. 

Friday evening: With 85% counted and Crewther ahead by 491 (50.6%) the ABC has seen enough and so barring errors have I.