Victorian 2022 Postcount: Northcote and Preston

 As I roll out postcount threads I'm finding that there are not that many seats in serious doubt this election but I'm keeping an eye on a few seats that are also interesting in that they underlie general trends.

The Greens seemed set for a very good election after the Liberal Party preferenced them but at the moment it looks like they have only one gain to show for it in Richmond.  At one stage in early counting the Greens were projecting to win or go close in Footscray, Pascoe Vale and Preston and to win Albert Park if they could finish second, but all of those fell over.  (They are 8.2% off second in Albert Park with no prospect of bridging that off 13.1% of minor candidate shrapnel that is also splitting to Labor.)  Many of these seats were not that competitive to begin with but there are some underlying themes in this performance: a rather soft Green primary vote that is easily gouged by the Victorian Socialists especially for one thing.  

Northcote (ALP vs Green 1.7%) - Labor wins

Unlike Richmond where the Greens had a perfect storm of candidate factors in their favour, in Northcote they are going from having an incumbent in 2018 (now-Senator Lidia Thorpe) to the seat being occupied by Labor's Kat Theophanous.  Primaries with 72.4% counted are Theophanous 41.7% , Campbell Gome (Greens) 29.1, Liberals 12.0, Victorian Socialists 6.8, Reason 3.6 etc.  Labor is currently getting 32.5% of all preferences and coming out ahead 51.2-48.8, a lead of 865 votes.  

The main reason this might yet close up is absents; in 2018 the Greens gained a net 366 on absents in this seat, and a larger gain would put them within striking distance if there was some error or favourable prepoll.  But it looks like Labor have retained Northcote.  The hit of being preferenced against by the Liberals is not so large here because nobody much votes Liberal in Northcote, but even with the candidate factors included, for the Greens to be looking at only a tiny swing to them here is either a lacklustre result for them or a strong one for Theophanous.  

Thursday 5 pm: The Greens have conceded Northcote and I would assume their scrutineering intel is running well ahead of what we are seeing officially.  I have therefore transferred it to assumed win status.  This is a disappointing result for the Greens but it may also be a reflection on the success of Theophanous as a first-term MP (this may become clearer when the Upper House count is completed as a benchmark).  

Sunday: Northcote has closed up to a margin of 270 votes (50.32%).  The Greens have thus far gained 469 votes on absents compared to 366 in 2018 but they have also gained over 100 from somewhere else.  The count is currently at 88.6% on the 2CP check count.  In 2018 it reached 91% suggesting that at best there might be c. 1200 to come, though with the declining turnouts at the federal election it is probably not that much.  It doesn't look like the Greens' call was premature at this stage.

Sunday night: And still more ... with 89.1% counted Labor leads by just 194 (50.23%).  However, that must be pretty much the lot (or is it ...) 

Monday: Computerised distribution of preferences tomorrow. The Greens have issued a statement that has been reported by The Age as unconceding (if that's a word) the seat, though their candidate denies doing so.  I have not seen the full text of the statement so cannot express a view on this at this stage.

Tuesday 3:50 Labor has won Northcote by 184 votes (50.22% 2CP)

Preston (ALP vs Green 21.2%)

Preston has seen an enormous 2CP swing to the Greens off the back of Robin Scott's retirement, the Liberals' preferencing decision and whatever else is in the water there.  It's currently showing as an enormous 19.1% 2CP swing to the party though there is still a lot of counting to go in Preston, which is only at 58.5%.  On current numbers Nathan Lambert (Labor) is on 38.3%, Amanda Paliouras (Liberal) 16.5, Patchouli Paterson (Green) 14.8, Gaetano Greco (IND) 14.2, Steph Price (Vic Socialists) 6.7 and it is worth briefly listing who the other parties are: Freedom 2.9, Reason 2.3, Animal Justice 1.8, Family First 1.8 and Sanaghan (IND) 0.7.  Lambert gets 29.6% of preferences and currently wins 52.2-47.8.

Paliouras isn't likely to stay second and cannot win if she does.  Paterson is too far back based on the 2CP (unless there is some outrageously friendly prepoll not yet in the count, for instance.)  Why am I even mentioning this seat?  I'm mentioning it because while I am sure Labor beats the Liberals, and more or less sure they beat the Greens, I don't know anything about whether they beat Gaetano Greco. Greco is a former Darebin Mayor (described variously as having been independent and Labor at the time) whose issue mix includes the Preston Market and various generally left local concerns.   It seems the Preston Market might have been an issue driving the huge swing against Labor in Preston.  If Greco gets ahead of the Greens he will surely use the Greens preferences to overtake Labor and then use the Liberal preferences to close up towards Lambert.  

There are three issues with this here:

1. It is not clear Greco gets over the Greens.  All of the Victorian Socialists, Reason, Animal Justice and Sanaghan have recommended preferences to Greco ahead of the Greens, Labor or Liberals.  But none of these parties' supporters are big card followers and it is possible the Vic Socialists voters especially might preference the Greens and put Greco out of business.  (If he is over the Greens then their card preferences him, as does the Liberals')

2. Even if Greco would get over the Greens on votes now, it may not stay that way; he may slip back vs the Greens in the postcount.

3. Even if Greco makes the final three, he still needs 75.4% of preferences on current numbers which is a tall ask.  (The Greens are getting 70.4 though, so maybe not impossible).

So ... if only I could look up the distributions from 2018 and see how Socialist preferences and so on flowed between Gaetano and the Greens back then.  Except Scott cracked 50% on primaries and in these cases the VEC stops, so there's no data to see.  (Frustrating!)

These weird scenarios nearly always fall over and Labor may well have already put it to bed with scrutineering data.  But I think it is worth looking at a scenario where a candidate could conceivably win from fourth.  It has never yet happened in a state or federal election, but as the major party vote keeps dropping, someday it will ...

Sunday 5:50 The Preston count is at 62.9% and our hero (because it would be hilarious if one Independent won but it was one on nobody's radar) has improved his position, overtaking the Greens with 14.9% to their 14.3.  Labor has come down to 38.1 so Greco's target has come down to 74.9.  I am not sure he would get that though - it might seem he's a more attractive proposition than the Greens in a race against Labor but some voters are wary of preferencing Independents.  The situation has some echoes of Andrew Wilkie winning Denison in 2010 but Wilkie had a higher primary vote against a lower Labor primary vote, and got 69.7% of preferences.  I think it would be hard for Greco to get the current target. 

Sunday 11:00 An interesting Facebook post from Lambert that at least suggests Labor may (and hardly surprising if not) not have covered off Greco in scrutineering yet:

"A quick update on the election results… While some media organisations are reporting that Labor has beaten the Greens in Preston, I think the independent candidate, Gaetano Greco, will finish second after the distribution of preferences -- and possibly first. We won't know until all the postal votes are received and a full distribution of preferences is completed. I will post any major updates. But for the moment, the outcome remains uncertain."

Monday: A good point made by John in comments: the tendency of some Greens voters to preference Labor no matter what could make it hard for Greco to get a good enough flow off the Greens if he is over them.  While it might seem that the Greens to Greco flow would be stronger than Greco to Greens I am not sure that is actually the case.  

The ABC is now modelling the count as Labor vs Greco and assuming that the 2CP split to Greco as to the Greens will be the same (70-30).

Wednesday: The ABC has changed its preference estimate to something around 73-27 and added a note that this is based on scrutineering data (albeit not a very high volume of it.)

Wednesday night: Labor 38.0 Liberal 16.9 Greens 14.7 Greco 14.4.  ABC projection 50.9 ALP vs Greco if it comes to that.

Saturday: Labor 37.7 Liberal 17.0 Greens 15.3 Greco 13.9.  More doubt now about whether Greco can get out of fourth; if he does he needs 74.6%.

Sunday night: The ABC is reporting that Greco is struggling to get above 70% of preferences and that Labor is set to win no matter what.

Monday: Computerised distribution of preferences probably tomorrow. 

Tuesday: Distribution pushed back to Wednesday.

Wednesday: Greco was stuck in fourth by c. 800 376 votes and Labor beats the Greens 52.1-47.9