EMRS: First Expanded House Poll Not Bad For Government

EMRS: Liberal 42 (+1) Labor 29 (-2) Greens 14 (+1) IND 15 (+1) (likely to be inflated) Others 1

Largest Liberal lead since lifting of state borders.

Estimated seat result: Liberal 16-17 Labor 11-12 Green 4-5 IND 1-3

The usual very quick post following the release of an EMRS poll for Tasmania.  The new poll taken November 8-15 shows the Liberals on 42%, Labor 29%, Greens 14%, Independents 15% and others 1.  The poll is not statistically different from the August poll but nonetheless the Liberals have their largest lead of the year at 13%.  There might be some recovery from the crash in support following the reopening of state borders last summer, but it is still too soon to be sure.  In any case, there are two familiar themes (i) the Liberal Party is substantially ahead (ii) Labor is, at this stage, not lifting off to anything much above what it got at the 2021 state election.  The swing is going more or less all to "independent".  The next election is two and a half years away if the parliament goes full term so there is still a lot of time for things to change.

Legislation to restore the House to 35 seats with five divisions of seven members has passed the Parliament so from now on I will be projecting these polls first and foremost for a 35 seat House (in which the magic majority target is 18 seats).  As noted in the August article the suspiciously high "Independent" vote remains an interpretation problem; this would be expected to crash once voting options were known but where those votes would go is another question. 

As only Clark and Braddon recently had significant independents I have assumed they would again attract significant independent votes, and that the independent votes likely to appear in the other seats would scatter and/or be peeled off by other parties.  On this basis I estimate this poll as pointing to 16-17 Liberals, 11-13 Labor, 4-5 Greens and 1-3 Independents if an election were "held now".  The Liberals would probably only win two seats in Clark (which might elect a second independent, or give Labor and the Greens four between them) and would be touch-and-go when it came to a fourth in Lyons.  Unless the Liberal vote is huge then the orthodox pathway to 18 seats would be four in the three northern seats and three in Clark and Franklin, however two in Clark and four in all the others is another in-theory possibility.  As the election gets closer it could be that high-profile independents emerge in other seats to try their luck under the restored system.  

The story would be fairly similar under the 25-seat system, where the Liberals would probably only get twelve on these numbers, with only one returned in Clark, although retaining the second Clark seat might be possible with a more focused campaign in that seat.  So on these numbers the recent switch back to 35 has probably made retaining a majority slightly harder.  

The only thing to see on the leadership front is that there isn't anything to see; Jeremy Rockliff has a rather modest lead over Rebecca White (46-34) on an indicator that generally favours incumbent leaders.  

Following the spate of resignations earlier this year and controversy over the tactical wisdom (or otherwise) of the proposed AFL stadium there has been speculation that the government is approaching the end of its shelf-life and is highly likely to at least lose its majority at the end of the term.  This poll however doesn't find the rot setting in in the minds of voters and for now it has the government competitive for a majority while Labor has work to do.  It will be interesting to see if anything changes in this regard during 2023.