Coalition has won the election - small majority likely but perhaps a minority
Apparently won Coalition 74 Labor 64 Green 1 CA 1 KAP 1 IND 3
Seats Assumed Won By Coalition From Labor: Longman, Herbert, Bass, Braddon, Lindsay
Seats Assumed Won By Labor From Coalition: Gilmore, Corangamite, Dunkley
Seat Assumed Won By IND From Coalition: Warringah
Seats currently in doubt (projection = AEC projection)
Eden-Monaro (ALP) - Labor leading on projection
Boothby (Lib) - Liberal leading narrowly on projection
Chisholm (Lib) - Liberal leading narrowly on projection
Cowan (ALP) - Labor leading on projection
Lilley (ALP) - Labor leading narrowly on projection
Macquarie (ALP) - way too close to call on current projection
Wentworth (IND) - Sharma (Lib) currently well ahead and expected to win
If all current leads hold Coalition will win 77 seats, Labor 67, KAP 1, CA 1, Greens 1, IND 3, with one unclear.
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Saturday, May 18, 2019
Election night arrangements and election watching tips (2019)
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Donations welcome!
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My coverage tonight and to come
I will be doing live blogging for the Mercury from 6 pm. The link to the live coverage is here. The link to the tweet that links to the live coverage is here. I am not sure yet how long the coverage will go or whether I will need to take any breaks to write articles. There is an email address on the live coverage for people to ask me questions during the coverage.
I will probably not be checking emails, tweets or for comments on this site regularly during this time, and I ask journalists not from the Mercury not to call me until the live blog has finished. However if you have interesting scrutineering samples from Tasmania - especially of the rate of below-the-line voting for Lisa Singh in a Senate booth (please say which booth!) - you're extremely welcome to SMS them to me (0421428775) or email them to me (k_bonham@iinet.net.au). I probably won't be able to reply immediately.
The live blog is paywalled and I don't know if there will be a paywall free link or not. Subscription options are available starting from $12. (In a kind of reverse Antony Green situation, a public media source did try to poach me for this election but negotiations collapsed from the point where I mentioned the concept of being paid.)
Donations welcome!
If you find my coverage useful please consider donating to support the large amount of time I spend working on this site. Donations can be made by the Paypal button in the sidebar or email me via the address in my profile for my account details. Please only donate if you are sure you can afford to do so.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
My coverage tonight and to come
I will be doing live blogging for the Mercury from 6 pm. The link to the live coverage is here. The link to the tweet that links to the live coverage is here. I am not sure yet how long the coverage will go or whether I will need to take any breaks to write articles. There is an email address on the live coverage for people to ask me questions during the coverage.
I will probably not be checking emails, tweets or for comments on this site regularly during this time, and I ask journalists not from the Mercury not to call me until the live blog has finished. However if you have interesting scrutineering samples from Tasmania - especially of the rate of below-the-line voting for Lisa Singh in a Senate booth (please say which booth!) - you're extremely welcome to SMS them to me (0421428775) or email them to me (k_bonham@iinet.net.au). I probably won't be able to reply immediately.
The live blog is paywalled and I don't know if there will be a paywall free link or not. Subscription options are available starting from $12. (In a kind of reverse Antony Green situation, a public media source did try to poach me for this election but negotiations collapsed from the point where I mentioned the concept of being paid.)
Election Eve: Final Newspoll and Seat Betting Roundup
2PP Aggregate (Final): 51.6 to Labor (Last-election preferences)
(51.3 with One Nation adjustment)
Seat projection assuming polls are accurate 79 Labor 66 Coalition 6 Others
The final Newspoll marks the end of my poll aggregation for this term (barring any late offers) though in the last few weeks, I really needn't have bothered. Aggregation is most useful when polls are bouncing around, when they have marked house effect differences relative to each other or when there is something happening that is causing voter intention to move. In the last few weeks, almost nothing has happened and seventeen consecutive polls have landed their 2PPs somewhere in the range 51-52. There's really nothing for an aggregate to do!
Friday, May 17, 2019
A few election notes (especially re Tasmania)
Just a few quick notes on a number of things, mainly to bring links to various articles to the top.
Election night coverage
On election night I am very pleased to say I will again be live blogging for The Mercury, starting from 6 pm and probably going til about 11 or maybe later, except for any time when I may or may not need to stop blogging and write a quick article for them. The link will be posted here when known. It is possible the coverage will be paywalled; if so there are various subscription offers starting from $12, or it may be there will be a paywall-free link. Once that has been finished, after a brief break I will relocate to home and then continue on here for a while.
Links
Some links to recent items on my site that may be useful:
How To Make Best Use Of Your 2019 Senate Vote
Tasmanian House of Reps Seats
Tasmanian Senate Guide
Election night coverage
On election night I am very pleased to say I will again be live blogging for The Mercury, starting from 6 pm and probably going til about 11 or maybe later, except for any time when I may or may not need to stop blogging and write a quick article for them. The link will be posted here when known. It is possible the coverage will be paywalled; if so there are various subscription offers starting from $12, or it may be there will be a paywall-free link. Once that has been finished, after a brief break I will relocate to home and then continue on here for a while.
Links
Some links to recent items on my site that may be useful:
How To Make Best Use Of Your 2019 Senate Vote
Tasmanian House of Reps Seats
Tasmanian Senate Guide
Thursday, May 16, 2019
Rolling Poll Roundup And Seat Betting Watch: The Final Days
2PP Aggregate 51.5 to Labor (by last-election preferences) (-0.3 since last week)
51.1 with One Nation adjustment
Current seat projection approx Labor 79 Coalition 66 others 6 assuming polls accurate.
The end, it seems, is nigh. If the (ludicrously herded) national polls are right, the Morrison government would need a huge amount of luck to survive a swing of somewhere around 1.3-2.3%, at an election at which it can afford perhaps two net seat losses. If the polls on the whole are just modestly wrong in one direction, the Government's chances of survival improve greatly, but the other direction leads to a decisive loss. The most likely path to survival is a Donald Trump style path - a combination of a modest national polling error and a fair amount of luck with the local breakdowns, but if it happens in this case, after everything, it will be very surreal.
51.1 with One Nation adjustment
Current seat projection approx Labor 79 Coalition 66 others 6 assuming polls accurate.
The end, it seems, is nigh. If the (ludicrously herded) national polls are right, the Morrison government would need a huge amount of luck to survive a swing of somewhere around 1.3-2.3%, at an election at which it can afford perhaps two net seat losses. If the polls on the whole are just modestly wrong in one direction, the Government's chances of survival improve greatly, but the other direction leads to a decisive loss. The most likely path to survival is a Donald Trump style path - a combination of a modest national polling error and a fair amount of luck with the local breakdowns, but if it happens in this case, after everything, it will be very surreal.
Saturday, May 11, 2019
New South Wales 2019: Final Lower House Results And Poll Accuracy
Amid the gearing up for the federal election, the finalisation of the NSW election figures has been largely ignored. For whatever reason it took a few weeks longer than last time to get to the final 2PP, which is necessary for assessing which polls performed the best among other things. Though in this case, comparing polls is hardly worth the bother.
Vote Share, 2PP and Preference Change
The primary votes were 41.58% Coalition, 33.31% Labor, 9.57% Green and 15.54% Others (including 3.46% Shooters, Fishers and Farmers with the rest led by 1.53% Sustainable Australia, 1.52% Keep Sydney Open and 1.51% Animal Justice.) The 2PP was 52.02% to the Coalition, a 2.3% swing away from their 2015 result.
The overall two-party preference flow barely changed at all, with 33.0% of preferences flowing to Labor (-0.6%), 14.0% to Coalition (-0.8%) and 53.0% exhausting (+1.4%). But overall what happened here was that the flow of Greens preferences strengthened, but this was cancelled out by the Greens' share of all non-major voting falling from just over 50% to just 38%. In those seats in which Greens candidates were excluded, the preferences distributed at that stage flowed 51% to Labor with just 9% to Coalition and the rest exhausting. The stronger flow in Lismore, 72%, was among the highest and was crucial to winning the seat, while East Hills would have been extremely close had Labor managed to match the state swing there.
Vote Share, 2PP and Preference Change
The primary votes were 41.58% Coalition, 33.31% Labor, 9.57% Green and 15.54% Others (including 3.46% Shooters, Fishers and Farmers with the rest led by 1.53% Sustainable Australia, 1.52% Keep Sydney Open and 1.51% Animal Justice.) The 2PP was 52.02% to the Coalition, a 2.3% swing away from their 2015 result.
The overall two-party preference flow barely changed at all, with 33.0% of preferences flowing to Labor (-0.6%), 14.0% to Coalition (-0.8%) and 53.0% exhausting (+1.4%). But overall what happened here was that the flow of Greens preferences strengthened, but this was cancelled out by the Greens' share of all non-major voting falling from just over 50% to just 38%. In those seats in which Greens candidates were excluded, the preferences distributed at that stage flowed 51% to Labor with just 9% to Coalition and the rest exhausting. The stronger flow in Lismore, 72%, was among the highest and was crucial to winning the seat, while East Hills would have been extremely close had Labor managed to match the state swing there.
Thursday, May 9, 2019
Poll Roundup And Seat Betting Watch: The Polls Are Getting Closer (To Each Other)
2PP Aggregate 51.8 to Labor (2016 preferences) (-0.1 since last week)
51.4 to Labor (with One Nation preference adjustment)
Current seat projection assuming polls are accurate c. 80 Labor 65 Coalition 6 crossbench (+/- lots!)
Polls appear to be "herded" which can increase risk of error
Time for another instalment of the week in polling and seat betting, delayed slightly by an interstate trip. As of last week the United Australia Party were going through a bit of a purple patch, polling 5% in Newspoll and above their 2013 result in a bunch of seat polls. This hasn't lasted; all their poll results this week have been in the 3-4% range, and in three WA YouGov-Galaxy seat polls they did worse than their 2013 results (in one case much worse; the other two only very slightly.)
This week's action in the minor party primaries came from the Greens who polled 14% in Ipsos, 11 in Morgan, 12 in Essential and 9 in Newspoll. Ipsos (especially) and Morgan have form for exaggerating the Green vote and Essential's reading of the Green vote lately has been quite volatile, but even so the party doesn't seem to be in too bad shape, with the issues mix at this election helping it (that is an understatement.) That said, the Greens have finally struck the candidate problems that have hitherto affected everybody else.
51.4 to Labor (with One Nation preference adjustment)
Current seat projection assuming polls are accurate c. 80 Labor 65 Coalition 6 crossbench (+/- lots!)
Polls appear to be "herded" which can increase risk of error
Time for another instalment of the week in polling and seat betting, delayed slightly by an interstate trip. As of last week the United Australia Party were going through a bit of a purple patch, polling 5% in Newspoll and above their 2013 result in a bunch of seat polls. This hasn't lasted; all their poll results this week have been in the 3-4% range, and in three WA YouGov-Galaxy seat polls they did worse than their 2013 results (in one case much worse; the other two only very slightly.)
This week's action in the minor party primaries came from the Greens who polled 14% in Ipsos, 11 in Morgan, 12 in Essential and 9 in Newspoll. Ipsos (especially) and Morgan have form for exaggerating the Green vote and Essential's reading of the Green vote lately has been quite volatile, but even so the party doesn't seem to be in too bad shape, with the issues mix at this election helping it (that is an understatement.) That said, the Greens have finally struck the candidate problems that have hitherto affected everybody else.
Saturday, May 4, 2019
Legislative Council 2019: Nelson, Pembroke and Montgomery Live And Post-Count
Montgomery: CALLED 8:30 pm Hiscutt (Lib) retains
Nelson: CALLED 4:45 pm Tues Webb (IND) defeats Street on preferences by a large margin
Pembroke: CALLED 8:37 pm Siejka (ALP) retains
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Donations welcome!
If you find my coverage useful please consider donating to support the large amount of time I spend working on this site. Donations can be made by the Paypal button in the sidebar or email me via the address in my profile for my account details. Please only donate if you are sure you can afford to do so.
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Nelson: CALLED 4:45 pm Tues Webb (IND) defeats Street on preferences by a large margin
Pembroke: CALLED 8:37 pm Siejka (ALP) retains
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Donations welcome!
If you find my coverage useful please consider donating to support the large amount of time I spend working on this site. Donations can be made by the Paypal button in the sidebar or email me via the address in my profile for my account details. Please only donate if you are sure you can afford to do so.
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Friday, May 3, 2019
Disendorsed, Resigned Or Withdrawn Candidates at the 2019 Federal Election
Scoreboard (will be updated as needed)
Since calling of election (includes since close of nominations):
Liberal 10
National 1
Labor 4
Green 2
Green 2
One Nation 1
United Australia 9*
United Australia 9*
Independent 6
(* based on UAP website listing as of April 11)
(* based on UAP website listing as of April 11)
TOTAL 33
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