Victoria Legislative Council 2022: Button Press Day

Update (Wednesday night) All regions have been declared.  Bernie Finn unsuccessfully sought a recount, apparently solely on account of the margin of 210 votes, which was rejected.  He claims there is precedent for granting a recount but the 2006 cases involved provisional margins of 76 and 114 votes at key points (though the latter did see a 205 vote shift which changed the winner!)  There is no automatic recount margin and I would expect the VEC to be wanting to see some evidence of actual error (from scrutineering or results issues) before granting a recount.  Finn can petition the matter to the Court of Disputed Returns but they would want to see evidence of actual errors too.

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Outcome ALP 15 L-NP 14 GRN 4 LCV 2 AJP 1 SFF 1 PHON 1 LDP 1 LDLP 1

This thread will follow and, where interesting dissect, the final results from the Victorian Legislative Council count as the proverbial buttons are pressed to finalise results on Wednesday.  If vote totals change before then, analysis will continue to be posted on the existing live thread (which includes projections of seat outcomes and totals).  Any fresh detailed analysis of the impending button presses that I find time to do will also be posted there and the outlook summaries on this page will be edited.   For a guide to what to expect see my 2018 Button Press Day thread.

For all the analysis on the above thread and elsewhere there are some seats that are going to the button in significant doubt.  There are others where what is going to happen appears to be clear but it is possible that all the modelling thrown at these counts might still be wrong and something unexpected will happen.  I should note that at this stage we only have party totals, and the breakdown of below-the-lines within parties could matter in Western Victoria.  

The ABC Calculator gives a model of the count based on the assumption that all votes are above the line.  However there has been a similar below-the-line voting rate to 2018 and this will mean that the calculator model will not always work.  At the moment there are three regions where the calculator appears to be clearly right in picking all five winners, two where it is probably right, one where it is clearly wrong, and two where it could be right or wrong.

Once the results are in I intend to - sometime in the next week as time allows - write a separate article highlighting the number of undemocratic and unjust results that have occurred as a result of Group Ticket Voting, since it is already clear there will be some.  That said this election looks not as bad as 2018's which was completely wrecked by group ticket voting (which the 2018-22 parliament, ludicrously, did nothing about.)  It is encouraging to see that several minor parties that took a stance against group ticket voting appear to have been rewarded while fewer of the Druery cartel of parties in thrall to the existing disgrace have been elected, but the momentum needs to continue. 

Thanks to various commenters on here, especially David Jeisman, for help with modelling these counts and also to @sorceror43, @rippinghottakes and @auspolsucks among others for prodding me with news on Twitter when there was movement at the station.

Schedule

Button Press Day is Wednesday from 10 - 12 with an estimated 10-20 minutes per button, in the order listed here.  

I will post provisional results as soon as they are available under an Outcome section and then examine preference distributions under an Analysis section where the count is of any interest to me.  In 2018 all seats were declared on the day of the button press but it is always possible that a very close margin (or some other issue) might justify a recount and delay a declaration.  In 2006 there were three (!) recounts, one because of a 6,000 vote transcription error.

As of 1 pm on button press day, preference distributions are not yet available.

Regional Count Summaries and Results

1. EASTERN VICTORIA

2018: 2 Coalition 2 Labor 1 Shooters

ABC Calculator: 2 Coalition 2 Labor 1 Shooters

Projection: 2 Coalition 2 Labor 1 Shooters

Suspense Factor: Zzzzzz...

Summary: In this count the Coalition has over two quotas and Labor has about 1.6.  Labor wins provided that the Greens stay ahead of Legalise Cannabis but there is no doubt that this occurs.  The final seat is undeservedly taken by Shooters incumbent Jeff Bourman, who uses Druery group preferences to overtake the Greens despite having 3% to their 8%, and eventually uses left preferences to easily hold off One Nation.

Outcome:  As expected: 2 Coalition 2 Labor 1 Shooters

Analysis: None needed as far as I can tell.

2. NORTH-EASTERN METROPOLITAN

2018: 2 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Transport Matters

ABC Calculator: 2 Labor 2 Liberal 1 Transport Matters

Projection: 2 Labor 2 Liberal 1 Green

Suspense Factor:  Not much to see

Summary:  In this count Labor has over two quotas, the Liberals 1.8 and the Greens 0.62.  Early in the count there was some risk that Labour DLP's Hugh Dolan or more likely the Liberal Democrats' Maya Tesa would beat the Liberals to a seat.  After the Liberals' position improved that risk transferred to the Greens, but the Greens are far enough ahead to win anyway given that the challengers have fewer ATL votes locked in between them.  There was momentary excitement when reader Cameron N spotted that an error in the New Democrats' vote meant that Transport Matters' incumbent Rod Barton was the calculator leader despite polling even fewer votes than last time, but then Stephen Luntz noticed that Barton was crashing out because New Democrats have not enough ATLs to put him over Sustainable Australia.  This latter aspect has become clearer and clearer as time has gone on.

Outcome:  As expected 2 Labor 2 Liberal 1 Green

Analysis: As expected Barton was eliminated early, failing to get over Sustainable Australia by 414 votes (there were various parties between the two that would not have been much use).  The Dolan-Tesa battle saw Tesa eliminated 478 behind Dolan, but Dolan went on to lose to Puglielli (Greens) by 7069 votes. (1.43%)

3. NORTHERN METROPOLITAN

2018:  2 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Green, 1 Reason

ABC Calculator: 2 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Green, 1 Labour DLP

Projection: 2 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Green, 1 Labour DLP

Suspense Factor: Wailing and lamentations, yep, but no actual suspense here anymore

Summary: In easily the most-watched upper house count Labor has two quotas, the Liberals have one and the Greens have one.  In an echo of the Victorian Senate race which elected Ralph Babet, nobody else has anything much and the primary vote leader is Disney villain Adem Somyurek (Labour DLP).  His performance may have been fuelled by voters thinking he was Labor, but Northern Metro is a strong area for the DLP historically, especially the northern end of it.  

In a fair system like the Senate system the recorded primary totals would lead to a ding-dong preference fight between Somyurek and Victorian Socialists, with an outside chance for Fiona Patten (though it would be hard for her to overtake Vic Soc).  Somyurek might or might not have won anyway, but in this case above the line votes for Druery parties flow in a block to Somyurek.  Had voters for these parties had to make their own minds up, voters for several of them would have favoured Patten or broken evenly.  This ensures Somyurek's victory over Patten (who overtakes Vic Soc via similarly fake flows of left ATL preferences).  Early on in the count this looked like a close race but the fire flickered then went out late in the first week as Somyurek surged to a big lead.  

Outcome: As expected 2 Labor 1 Liberal 1 Green 1 Labour DLP

Analysis: Nothing to see here with Somyurek winning by 11824 votes (2.6%)

4. NORTHERN VICTORIA

2018: 2 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 DHJP

ABC Calculator: 2 Coalition 1 Labor 1 Animal Justice 1 One Nation

Projection: 2 Coalition 1 Labor 1 Animal Justice 1 One Nation (outside chance 2nd Labor instead)

Suspense Factor: One eye open

Summary: This is the hilarious case in which the Animal Justice Party secured a seat for their candidate Georgie Purcell then ratted on a deal with Glenn Druery and gave his parties nothing back elsewhere.  Purcell is spiralling up from 1.56% to beat seven other parties, including Labor with 7.8 times as much primary support, and to be clear she doesn't deserve to be elected based on voter support - but all the disadvantaged Druery parties and Labor very much deserve this to happen to them.  

The interest here has come from the possibility that One Nation candidate Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell (who benefits from a right-wing preference spiral from 3.73%) might be beaten by Labor after her position relative to them weakened sharply in late counting.  The case is complex because Animal Justice has a surplus to be thrown and the size of the surplus is affected by below the line voting.  I estimate Tyrrell to be 1.3% ahead on above the line votes.  Below the lines going to Animal Justice will help Labor to close this margin (irrespective of who they flow on to) but on the other hand there are more below the lines for right-wing parties that should help Tyrrell, so I expect Tyrrell to win.  

Outcome: As expected 2 Coalition 1 Labor 1 Animal Justice 1 One Nation

Analysis: Tyrrell won comfortably by 7645 votes.  Her lead before the Animal Justice surplus was 2.4%, slightly higher than the 2.25% lead expected based on ATLs alone and consistent with the preference pool including right-wing parties that assisted her.  The final margin was 1.64%.

5. SOUTH-EASTERN METROPOLITAN 

2018: 3 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Liberal Democrat

ABC Calculator: 2 Labor 1 Liberal 1 Legalise Cannabis 1 Liberal Democrat

Projection: 2 Labor 1 Liberal 1 Legalise Cannabis + Liberal Democrat or second Liberal

Suspense Factor: Maximum.  Well, I think so anyway ...

Summary: This has been the hardest count to model.  Labor wins two off the bat and the Liberals win one, leaving a left battle for one remaining seat and a right/Druery battle for the other one.

The left battle has been between Legalise Cannabis and the Greens.  Legalise Cannabis need to stay ahead of one of Labor or the Greens to win, and even accounting for some loss of votes to BTLs it has become clear towards the end of the count that they should do so (and may even be ahead of both).

The right battle has been between the Liberals and Liberal Democrat incumbent David Limbrick, who has increased his primary vote considerably (at least partly thanks to a dream ballot position) but starts way behind the Liberals anyway on about 3.6% to their 10%.  Limbrick gains thanks to a preference spiral, but also thanks to undemocratic Inclusive Gregory distortion in the Legalise Cannabis surplus.  He appears to be behind very slightly (about 0.13%) on above the line votes but any BTLs that get into the Legalise Cannabis surplus amplify the distorted Labor votes and help him.  While the ABC rates the Liberals Likely and Limbrick merely Possible, I've looked at this a lot in recent days and I really have no idea.

Outcome: 2 Labor 1 Liberal 1 Legalise Cannabis 1 Liberal Democrat (Limbrick wins)

Analysis: Limbrick has won comfortably by 2615 votes.  Looking at the distributions he was far closer to the Liberals than a pure ATL model predicts, being behind 14.4% to 13.74% at this point.  This appears to have been largely because he performed very strongly on BTL votes from various right-wing/anti-vax parties, and also because of leakage from BTL Liberal votes.  The Animal Justice surplus was not much larger than a pure ATL model suggests and did not help him any more than expected.    As noted by Antony Green, the undemocratic Inclusive Gregory system for surplus transfers caused Limbrick to be elected by inflating the Labor votes.

The Legalise Cannabis seat was, as expected, clearcut with Payne (LCV) 7409 votes ahead of Labor at their exclusion and also ahead of the Greens at that point.

6. SOUTHERN METROPOLITAN 

2018: 2 Labor, 2 Liberal 1 Sustainable Australia

ABC Calculator: 2 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green

Projection: 2 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green

Suspense Factor: Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz ...

Summary: The Liberals have two quotas, the Greens have nearly one, Labor has nearly 1.8.  Left parties eventually give enough preferences to the Greens and Labor to put them both over.  

Outcome: As expected 2 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green

Analysis: None needed as far as I can tell.

7. WESTERN METROPOLITAN

2018: 3 Labor 1 Liberal 1 DHJP (DHJP quit party)

ABC Calculator: 2 Labor 2 Liberal 1 Legalise Cannabis

Projection: 2 Labor 1 Liberal 1 Legalise Cannabis.  Liberals favoured vs Labour DLP for last seat

Suspense Factor: Rather interesting

Summary: The majors have three between them at the start.  The left battle is between Legalise Cannabis and Victorian Socialists and this has at times been very close, but late in the count Legalise Cannabis have opened up an ATL lead of over 1200 votes and below the lines will not pull all of that back (or perhaps even reduce it at all). Whichever survives at this point beats the Greens on the preferences of the other and wins.

The right battle is a very complex one between the Liberals and Labour DLP's Bernie Finn.  Finn starts 2.6% behind the Liberals but passes them on a spiral of group ticket votes from Druery parties and Family First.  The Liberals then pull Finn back on the Legalise Cannabis surplus (helped especially here by Labor), but the rate of below the line voting means that surplus is smaller than shown on the calculator.  On pure ATLs I have Finn very marginally ahead but I think it's most likely that BTLs going to Legalise Cannabis will boost their surplus and feed back as mostly Labor votes (the distortion again) and also that the Liberals will outperform Finn on BTLs anyway.  So while I think that the Liberals will win, I'm not very sure about it and don't expect it to be by much if they do.

Outcome: 2 Labor 2 Liberal 1 Legalise Cannabis. 

Analysis: A very close final seat outcome with Luu defeating Finn by just 210 votes (not recount territory however).  Compared to my ATL-only model (in which Finn would have won by 0.05%), Luu as expected did better on the Legalise Cannabis surplus because it was larger (improving Luu's position by 0.16%).  Luu actually did slightly worse than Finn on BTLs with Finn gaining 0.48% compared to the ATL tallies and Luu 0.39% (I suspect this means Luu did better on BTLs gained but lost significant numbers to within-ticket leakage).  However that was not quite enough.  The same issue with SE Metro applies here with the undemocratic Inclusive Gregory distortion inflating Labor Party votes in the Greens surplus and reducing the value of Angry Victorians and Victorian Socialists votes that flowed to Finn.  However in this case it is only cancelling out a Group Ticket preference spiral that didn't deserve to work anyway so two undemocratic wrongs have made a right.

The Legalise Cannabis vs Victorian Socialists margin was expanded slightly by BTLs and finished at 1788 votes.  

8. WESTERN VICTORIA

2018:  2 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 DHJP, 1 Animal Justice

ABC Calculator: 2 Labor 2 Liberal 1 Legalise Cannabis

Projection: 2 Labor 2 Liberal, Greens narrowly favoured over Legalise Cannabis

Suspense Factor: That's not a knife-edge, this is almost a knife-edge

Summary: Labor has two seats at the start, the Liberals have one and eventually pick up a second via various right parties.  The interest here is another Greens vs Legalise Cannabis battle.  Legalise Cannabis is 0.30% ahead on the calculator but is coming from further behind and I have the Greens 0.08% ahead on above the lines.  So the question is whether Legalise Cannabis can beat the Greens by that much on below the lines, and while the mix of parties and history of preferences in this area is such that they could get a lot of that lead back, it won't be easy to get it all.  Extremely close.

Outcome: 2 Labor 2 Liberal 1 Green

Analysis: The Greens have done much better than LC on below the line votes as they have won by 2870 (0.56%).  Looking through the distributions quickly a very strong flow from Animal Justice BTLs and also strong flows from Labor BTLs are apparent, but also Legalise Cannabis got negligible direct preference flows from right micros that in the Senate count helped them compared to the Greens.  It looks like right BTL voters who might have preferred Legalise Cannabis over the Greens exhausted their votes faster than they would have done in the Senate.