Greens, One Nation and Trumpet of Patriots 2025 Reps How To Vote Cards

This article is mainly a resource page for studying the preference flows of the Greens, One Nation and Trumpet of Patriots after the election, following a similar one I did in 2022, and in order to compare with 2022.  I was going to do one for the Senate as well but at this stage I am only aware of the ALP varying its how to vote cards between seats in a state, and that only in seven seats (Macnamara, Goldstein, Hunter, Paterson, Capricornia, Flynn and Dawson) so for now I haven't bothered.  [EDIT: Greenway also, see comments.]

Before I start this article, I want to say this.  Some parties put out how to vote cards that do not list the parties with the candidate names.  It makes me want to see their registrations fired into the sun.  I'm busy and I've got articles to write and you - this means you One Nation, you Trumpet of Patriots, you Liberals and you Nationals - think it is acceptable for me to have to waste hours comparing lists of names with lists of candidates by party because you are too ashamed or too lazy to display which parties you are preferencing on your online how to vote cards.   In future I want display of party names on how to vote cards to be required by law.  Grrrr.  Kudos to Labor and the Greens for doing the right thing by our democracy here.

 It is often difficult to find how-to-vote card material online after elections, but where a party's recommendations vary between seats, it can be useful for getting a handle on how many of that party's voters copied the card.  It's not always that simple, because (for instance) an independent who the Greens choose to recommend preferences to is usually one their supporters would have liked anyway.  Also preference flows tend to be stronger to a major party where that major party's primary vote support is stronger, so when a party adopts anti-incumbent preferencing the impact of it can only be seen by comparing with the same seats at previous elections where they did something different.  

I should add the usual disclaimer that most voters don't actually copy how-to-vote cards, the main purpose of which is helping low-information voters to cast a formal vote.  For minor parties it appears to be around 10-15% of their voters in the Reps and it is generally even lower in the Senate.  However the UAP in Victoria had a surprisingly high 16.7% Senate follow rate in 2022, so it's possible their Reps follow rate in that state would have been high for a minor party.  Usually, not only do minor party voters think for themselves, but they're less likely to see the card in the first place.  Palmer parties have often got around this by hiring booth handout staff but the enthusiasm rate of such staff varies.  

I should add the strong disclaimer that how to vote cards are only recommendations.  No matter where a party puts another party on the card, the voters for that party decide where to send their preferences.  

Additions and corrections welcome.

Greens

Last election the Greens bizarrely issued an open how to vote card in Clark but otherwise recommended preferences to Labor ahead of the Coalition in every seat.  (Clark being the place that my funny little electorate is, the open HTV literally had a 0.0% impact on the Greens' 2PP preference flow there.)

My interest with the Greens is in which possibly significant independents they put ahead of Labor and which they don't.  For the purposes of this article I define possibly significant as all of group 1 in this article, plus Wilkie, Le, Gee, Penfold, Broadbent, Goodenough, Wilkie, Ouf, Basyouny and Moslih, and also Sharkie (technically not an independent but...).  This is not to say all of these are competitive, just that they are ones I've especially got an eye on.

Of the group 1 (teal-type, mostly C200-funded) independents the Greens have recommended preferences to all above Labor except for the seats of Sturt, Jagajaga, Forrest, Moore and Riverina. (Edit: and Curtin which I didn't check because what they do there is irrelevant.) In Riverina they have preferenced a different non-Climate 200 independent, Barbara Baikie, then Labor, then Jenny Rolfe.  They've also recommended preferences to Wilkie, Sharkie and the three listed Muslim vote indies.  They;ve put all of Gee, Penfold and Le between Labor and Liberal, and they've put Goodenough and Broadbent below the Coalition.

In some seats the Greens have included other parties like Animal Justice, Legalise Cannabis and Victorian Socialists above the independents and/or Labor; I expect these parties to be excluded before the Greens.  For all the hype about the Greens "breaking up" with Labor in retaliation for Labor's open HTV in Macnamara, the fact is that the Greens have done about the same thing as they did in 2022 in terms of generally putting teals ahead of Labor.  

Election day update: On election day the Greens have been handing out an open HTV in Deakin in reprisal for Labor not preferencing them in Macnamara.

One Nation

This election One Nation nominated candidates for 147 seats (all except the 3 ACT seats).  Last election they ran in all seats except Kennedy and the now abolished Higgins, but they did not campaign on behalf of their Banks candidate who mistakenly nominated in two seats.  

In 2022 One Nation recommended preferences to Labor above the Coalition in Bass, Cook, Franklin, Goldstein, Lyons, Sturt and Clark (though in Clark the preference went to Andrew Wilkie first).  There were also some other seats where I could not verify what their HTV was.

There have been widespread references to One Nation pulping how-to-vote cards and issuing new ones that elevate Coalition candidates to position 2 but the One Nation website has yet to reflect the reported changes and continues, for instance, to show Peter Dutton at number 4.  So I am reluctant to use the website as a source.  It appears that in general One Nation has adopted the ordering Coalition-Labor-Teal-Green and I am not aware of any exceptions to that.  The online version has Russell Broadbent in Monash above the Coalition.  The online Fowler card is currently missing.  

Trumpet of Patriots

Overall what Trumpet of Patriots has done with their recommendations is much less hostile to Labor than in 2022, which will help Labor if ToP get any votes and these cards have any follow rate at all.  And if ToP don't get any votes, that's good for Labor's preference flows as well.  Trumpet of Patriots has made noises about putting the majors last but their how to vote cards even after repairs do not consistently reflect that.  Depending on what sort of vote ToP actually get in the seats they are running in, it's possible their HTV behaviour and choice of seats to run in could actually be worth half a point or so in Labor's favour compared to what they did in 2022, which is one of the reasons I'm sceptical of a large preference shift to the Coalition this election.

Information on UAP (effectively now Trumpet of Patriots) HTVs was elusive in 2022.  This election they have a how to vote presence online but they are only running in 100 seats while the UAP ran in all 151 in 2022.  Also TOP have already changed many cards after a controversy over them preferencing teals that saw one candidate quit and others criticise the party publicly.

The seats where TOP are not running are as follows:

Labor: Canberra, Fenner, Bean, Blaxland, Cunningham, Kingsford-Smith, Macarthur, Macquarie, McMahon, Shortland, Sydney, Lingiari, Solomon, Franklin, Ballarat, Bendigo, Cooper, Corio, Dunkley, Fraser, Gellibrand, Gippsland, Gorton, Hawke, Holt, Hotham, Isaacs, Jagajaga, Lalor,  Macnamara, Maribyrnong, McEwen, Wills, Brand, Bullwinkel, Burt, Fremantle, Hasluck, Pearce, Perth, Swan, Tangney

IND: Fowler, Wentworth, Clark, Indi, Curtin

Coalition: Riverina, Canning

Greens: Melbourne

In 2022 it was hard to find complete information about the UAP how to votes but they mostly recommended the Coalition ahead of Labor.  Reported exceptions that were not debunked included all WA incumbents, Banks, Cook and Dickson, Maranoa and also Cooper and Griffith (the latter two attempts to blunt the Greens).  

At this election ToP has adopted an incumbents-last policy for the major parties, Greens and now teals (and Rebekha Sharkie too) though for whatever reason they don't apply it in Bennelong where the Liberals are last in a Labor-held notionally Liberal seat.  Some people have claimed they got confused by notional status but if so this is not the case in Menzies where they have put Keith Wolahan last.  They initially claimed they were putting the majors last in general but this was nonsense on their original HTV cards and is still nonsense in some (and especially so for the Tasmanian Senate where they have included both majors on their card and omitted One Nation).  

In the Coalition seats outside WA and but for the exceptions listed above, the Coalition has now gone from being above to below Labor on the TOP card - that's 50 seats.  There are 37 seats where Labor appears to have gone from being carded against to there not being a TOP candidate, and there are two where the Coalition has had the same fortune.  There are four seats where Labor appears to have gone from benefiting from the UAP card to there not being a TOP candidate.  

When ToP revamped their preference cards, they shunted Labor down from second to between the Liberals and the Greens in Griffith and above only the Liberals and the Greens in Ryan, but kept them in fourth in Brisbane (also above the Liberals and Greens).  In general their new cards put non-incumbent majors above teals above the incumbent major (who is usually last).  In Calare where the incumbent (Gee) is a defector they have recommended the incumbent party from the previous election (Nationals) second, with Gee above both majors and Kate Hook.  In Moore where the incumbent (Goodenough) is a defector they have effectively preferenced Goodenough and put the incumbent party from the previous election (Liberals) ahead of Labor.  In Monash where the incumbent (Broadbent) is a defector they have preferenced Broadbent and put the notionally incumbent party (Liberal) last below even the teal candidate.  Whether what they put on their website changes in the next five seconds, or resembles what they actually hand out, who can say.  Chaos!

In Paterson ToP have effectively preferenced Penfold.