Federal 2025: Classifying The Independents

In the list of declared candidates for the 2025 federal election, there was an unsurprising upswing in the number of independents.  There are a number of points of relevance arising from this and I'm putting up an article with a rough classification that I will edit as the campaign proceeds.  

I am interested in the nature of independents running at the election for a few reasons.  One of these is that polls that offer "independent" as a generic option everywhere often get the independent vote as high as 10-12%, but independents polled "just" 5.29% in 2022.  The reason for this is that voters who pick the independent option in these polls could find that there is no actual independent in their seat, or only one they've never heard of or don't like.  For this reason, some of the polls that use this "generic ballot" method stop doing so once they have the names of candidates, and doing so makes the polled estimate of the independent vote much more accurate.  

However for 2025 it's possible the dropoff from the generic-ballot vote to the real independent vote could be lower, because independents are running in more seats than before, and a lot of them are either incumbents or well-resourced.  The 9.6% independents are averaging on generic ballot polls since the start of March might realistically be worth 7.5-8%.

The second reason I'm interested in independents is because of the concept of the "teal vote", and talking about how large it is as a subset of the independent vote.   At the last three federal elections there has been a recognisable cohort of independents who are variously referred to as community independents or teals ("climate independents" was also used more in 2019, and "Voices independents" is another term not much used anymore).  Some observers maintain different meanings for different terms in which "teals" is a subset of "community independents".  Both these terms are problematic - "teal" implies a mix of blue and green but although some teals will espouse economic freedom values, in practice their votes on the floor are more like the Greens than they are like either major party.  "Community independent" embodies a conceit that the candidate represents or belongs to the whole community, although it does reflect that some kind of alternative preselection process through a non-party group tends to take place for these candidates.  

The term "teal" is often restricted to independents who challenge the Liberal Party in wealthy inner-suburban seats that Labor has little hope of winning (starting with Zali Steggall with a further six elected in 2022) and generally not applied to Andrew Wilkie or Helen Haines.  But it is quite often applied to candidates in regional seats taking on the Coalition with similar campaign styles and who are likely to display similar voting patterns if elected.  Indeed there is less voting pattern difference between Haines and some of the generally accepted seven teals than there is between some of the latter and each other.   Similar independents run in seats (mostly Coalition) that run the gamut from inner-city affluent seats to rural seats and I don't think it's useful drawing lines by seat type when these people will all vote in similar ways if elected anyway.  Wilkie is somewhat different in that his voting pattern is closer to the Greens, and he was indeed a former Green, elected as a lone candidate rather than through "Voices Of" groups and so on.

(From my days in philosophy I'm a fan of Wittgenstein's "family resemblance" concept, which maintains that many words that are actually useful (eg "art") define things only by their resemblance to other things considered to be the same thing, and not by intrinsic properties.  Any attempt at defining a concept like "teals" will always struggle - we all know some candidates are teals, are others enough like the agreed teals to be teals themselves?)

Four of the 132 "independents" are actually running as unendorsed candidates, meaning the word "independent" does not show on the ballot paper.  Three of these (Robert Creech in Newcastle, Mike Head in Oxley and Morgan Peach in Calwell) are candidates for the unregistered Socialist Equality Party and do not count as independents.  The fourth is Moore MP Ian Goodenough, who was disendorsed by the Liberal Party but is running a campaign in Liberal colours without using the word "independent".  Given that Goodenough stated on Feb 8 "After 30 years with the Liberal Party, I moved to the cross-bench and will be contesting the next federal election as an independent" I am classing him as one though his votes will not appear in the official Independent tally.  Goodenough has indicated an intention to sit with the Nationals if elected but is not currently a member.  

That leaves a total of 129 independents running in 88 divisions (this compares with 100 in 73 divisions in 2022, including one unendorsed).  Calwell and Riverina each have five.

Below is an attempt (as I start this article a rough one) to sort these independents into groups, some more defined than others.  Independents will be moved in and out of these groups if I find out more about them or decide their classification or even the whole framework should be changed.  There may be errors in the initial release, this is a first attempt.  

1. Teal/Community/Climate 200 Independents

An independent is generally listed in this group only if they are openly supported by Climate 200 or were preselected by a "Voices Of" style group, and if elected are a member of the narrower teal cluster based on the voting patterns in Pat Leslie's paper (Wilkie doesn't tick the latter box despite being Climate 200 supported, as is Rebekha Sharkie who is the now one and only Centre Alliance candidate).  Candidates not shown on the Climate 200 candidate list are indicated with an N.  Incumbents are shown in bold. Candidates who previously reached the final two are shown in grey bold.

Some of these may in practice vote more like Greens than teals if elected.  Especially I am not sure whether Peter George really fits this group or should be grouped outside it a la Wilkie, as George's candidacy did not arise through a Voices Of style process and is most prominently driven by an environmental issue other than climate (salmon farming).

As a benchmark in 2022 there were 23 candidates in 22 electorates who I would have put in this group (this includes the edge case of Rob Priestley who wasn't C 200 funded and whose local Voices group didn't endorse candidates but who campaigned on the local Voices group's platform), and these together polled 3.3% of the national primary vote, about 62% of all votes polled by independents.  This election I currently have 37 in this group.  

Jessie PRICE (Bean,ACT)

Tina BROWN (Berowra,NSW)

Nicolette BOELE (Bradfield,NSW)

Kate HOOK (Calare,NSW)

Caz HEISE (Cowper,NSW)

Michelle MILTHORPE (Farrer,NSW)

Kate DEZARNAULDS (Gilmore,NSW)

Jeremy MILLER (Lyne,NSW)

Sophie SCAMPS (Mackellar,NSW)

Jenny ROLFE (Riverina,NSW)

Zali STEGGALL (Warringah,NSW)

Allegra SPENDER (Wentworth,NSW)

Phil SCOTT (Solomon,NT)

Ellie SMITH (Dickson,QLD)

Francine WIIG (Fairfax,QLD)

Keryn JONES (Fisher,QLD)

Suzie HOLT (Groom,QLD)

Erchana MURRAY-BARTLETT (McPherson,QLD)

Nicole ARROWSMITH (Moncrieff,QLD)

Anita KUSS (Grey,SA)

Verity COOPER (Sturt,SA)

Peter GEORGE (Franklin,TAS)

Claire FERRES MILES (Casey,VIC)

Kath DAVIES (Chisholm,VIC)  (N)

Kate LOCKHART (Corangamite,VIC)  (N)

Jess NESS (Deakin,VIC)

Ben SMITH (Flinders,VIC)

Zoe DANIEL (Goldstein,VIC)

Helen HAINES (Indi,VIC)

Chris KEARNEY (Jagajaga,VIC)  (N)

Monique RYAN (Kooyong,VIC)

Deb LEONARD (Monash,VIC)

Alex DYSON (Wannon,VIC)

Kate CHANEY (Curtin,WA)

Sue CHAPMAN (Forrest,WA)

Kate HULETT (Fremantle,WA)

Nathan BARTON (Moore,WA)

2. Coalition Diaspora

This list includes candidates who I believe were a member of a Coalition party (Liberals except Gee) some time in the last five or so years but have left, in many cases with preselections or other internal issues a factor (example exceptions: Gee left over the Coalition's Voice referendum position and Penfold prior to running for Mayor successfully).  Incumbents are shown in bold.  Note that Dai Le (see below) was suspended from the Liberal Party in 2016.  Candidates shown here do not necessarily still support Coalition positions in general.  

Andy YIN (Bradfield,NSW)

Andrew GEE (Calare,NSW)

Philip PENFOLD (Paterson,NSW) 

Mandeep SINGH (Mackellar,NSW)

Matthew CAMENZULI (McMahon,NSW)

Ben BRITTON (Whitlam,NSW)

Jake HALL-EVANS (Hindmarsh,SA) 

Brendan BLOMELEY (Franklin,TAS)

Russell BROADBENT (Monash,VIC)

Ian GOODENOUGH (Moore,WA)

3. Apparently Teal/Green- Adjacent

As well as Andrew Wilkie who does have Climate 200 support but is a bit different from the teals, this list includes independents who do not have Climate 200 support and do not appear to have been preselected by a "Voices Of" group but who based on a quick review of their web presence appeared to stress teal or green issues such as climate, environment, political accountability etc.  I excluded any candidate I might have otherwise put in this list if in a quick review I saw they had: supported nuclear energy, opposed windfarms, criticised vaccines, attacked "wokeness", positioned themselves as tough on crime, called for reduced immigration or espoused "conservative" social values, but it's possible I missed some who should be excluded on these or other grounds.   Incumbent shown in bold.  

Claire MILES (Canberra,ACT)

John COYNE (Banks,NSW)

Natasha LEDGER (New England,NSW)

Steven COMMERFORD (Reid,NSW)

Lisa BELLAMY (Robertson,NSW)

Shaun HOLLOWAY (Bowman,QLD)

Kirstie SMOLENSKI (Groom,QLD)

Michelle FAYE (McPherson,QLD)

Rosa HILLAM (Barker,SA) (ex-Green)

George RAZAY (Bass,TAS)

Andrew WILKIE (Clark,TAS)

Angela OFFORD (Lyons,TAS) (was a Voices Of style candidate in Tas election)

Ashok Kumar TEWATIA (Burt,WA)

Wade McDONALD (Cowan,WA)

4. Muslim Vote Style Independents

These are independents who are running Muslim Vote style campaigns,or have been referenced by them.  Those marked * have been publicly endorsed so far by Muslim Votes Matter, who are also endorsing some Greens House of Reps candidates.  

Ahmed OUF (Blaxland,NSW)  *

Ziad BASYOUNY (Watson,NSW) *

Jamal DAOUD (Werriwa,NSW)

Waddah WELD ALI (Moncrieff,QLD)

Samim MOSLIH (Calwell,VIC) *

5. Other Independents (Information Available)

In these cases information I found about the candidate suggested they didn't fit neatly into the above groups.  Some are obvious right-wingers, some may just lack obvious teal/climate vibes, some may have teal/climate vibes contradicted by other issues.  In several cases I have added comments but I am not seeking to provide detail on the views of all of these independents here, since they are mostly  readily Google-able.  Incumbent shown in bold.

Dai Le registered a federal party under the name "Frank Carbone & Dai Le W. S. C." but has stated she wants to consolidate her position in Fowler before running candidates with it.  

Roger WOODWARD (Berowra,NSW)  (previously Cook by-election)

Leigh BURNS (Chifley,NSW) (Reignite, ex-One Nation)

Zeke DALEY (Cowper,NSW)   

Andrew Evan THALER (Eden-Monaro,NSW) (serial local candidate)

Dai LE (Fowler,NSW)      

David BRADBURY (Grayndler,NSW)   

Robert STUCKEY (Greenway,NSW)  (ex-One Nation)

Elsa PARKER (Kingsford Smith,NSW)  (unregistered "Good Party")

Jim SALEAM (Lindsay,NSW)  (ex Australia First)

Lisa COTTON (Mackellar,NSW)   

Jordan COLLESS (Page,NSW)  (unregistered "Good Party")

Stuart HOWE (Parkes,NSW)   

Tanya-lee QUINN (Parramatta,NSW)   

Maa MALINI (Parramatta,NSW)   

Rod HOLDING (Paterson,NSW)   

Kevin LOUGHREY (Richmond,NSW)   

Barbara BAIKIE (Riverina,NSW)   

Grant HARDWICK (Riverina,NSW)   

James GOODEN (Riverina,NSW)   

Jake DAVIS (Riverina,NSW)   

James PHEILS (Shortland,NSW)   

David Michael SPRATT (Warringah,NSW)   

Zain KHAN (Watson,NSW) (Muslim independent but seems to be campaigning on refugee visa issues)

Michael RICHMOND (Wentworth,NSW)    

Paddy MOYLAN (Whitlam,NSW)   

Glenn BUTTERFIELD (Whitlam,NSW)   

Janey DAVIES (Solomon,NT)   

Stewart BROOKER (Fadden,QLD)   

Paul McKEOWN (Fairfax,QLD)   

John ANDERSON (Flynn,QLD)

Duncan SCOTT (Flynn,QLD)   

Chris GREAVES (Forde,QLD) 

Steven CLARE (Kennedy,QLD)  (ex-One Nation)

Norman MILLER (Leichhardt,QLD) 

Casey IDDON (Wide Bay,QLD)   

Ian PENNO (Barker,SA)   

Cody SCHOLES (Barker,SA) (ex-One Nation)

Kym HANTON (Spence,SA)   

Adam MARTIN (Braddon,TAS)  (see guide)

Mark GRONDMAN (Aston,VIC)   

Andrew WILLIAMS (Aston,VIC)

Luke PARKER (Ballarat,VIC)   

David VINCENT (Bendigo,VIC) (attempted to unseat Matthew Guy via petition)

Carly MOORE (Calwell,VIC) (quit Labor)

Joseph YOUHANA (Calwell,VIC)   

Ravi RAGUPATHY (Calwell,VIC)   

John DE LORENZO (Corio,VIC)  (Vern Hughes "Democracy First" group)

Robert THURLEY (Dunkley,VIC)

Joseph TOSCANO (Flinders,VIC)  (anarchist)

Mark McFARLANE (Indi,VIC)  

Aijaz MOINUDDIN (Lalor,VIC)  (ran in Werribee by-election)

JB MYERS (Macnamara,VIC)  (previous candidate)

Tim SMITH (Melbourne,VIC)   

Anthony KOUTOUFIDES (Melbourne,VIC)  (ex-football celebrity candidate)

Stella YEE (Menzies,VIC) (quit Labor)

Bernadine ATKINSON (Wannon,VIC)   

6. No Information Found

I found no information clearly referring to the candidate at a quick look re the following.  The very small number of these is a good sign of a high proportion of independents having their act together in online presence terms.  

Brian FISHER (Eden-Monaro,NSW)

Peter McLEAN (Hume,NSW)

Richard WELLS (Page,NSW)

April Maree SCOTT (Paterson,NSW)

James Ian McKENZIE (Richmond,NSW)

Michael O'BRIEN (Hinkler,QLD)

Abdi MOHAMED (Jagajaga,VIC)