Western Australia 2025 Legislative Assembly Postcount

EXPECTED WINS ALP 44 LIB 6 NAT 4 IN DOUBT 5

ALP LIKELY TO WIN 45-47 SEATS
IF CURRENT LEADS HOLD ALP 46 LIB 7 NAT 6

Seats in doubt covered on this page:

Albany (Lib vs Nat, Nat narrowly ahead on primaries)
Kalamunda (Lib vs ALP, Lib narrowly ahead)
Kalgoorlie (ALP vs Lib or Nat, ALP ahead)
Pilbara (ALP vs Lib, ALP probably ahead)
Warren-Blackwood (Nat vs Lib, Nat ahead on primaries)

This is a relatively brief thread to update where the WA 2025 lower house postcount is at.  Because I was playing chess all weekend and then spent a day recovering from dehydration (oh yes chess is a sport) I have been slow getting onto this, but given how slow the counting is, I've hardly missed anything! 

As I start there are 51 seats the ABC has called (42 ALP 5 Lib 4 Nat).  I don't see any reason to doubt any of these (there is some weirdness in Geraldton where the Independent Shane van Styn might be more of a threat to the Nationals had not both the Liberals and Labor recommended preferences against him).  Of the eight the ABC shows as in doubt, I am also firmly expecting Labor to win:

Fremantle (ALP vs GRN 14.4%)  Here independent Kate Hulett won the ordinary booths 51.9-48.1 vs Labor's Simone McGurk but her chances have been wrecked by absent votes (56.8 to ALP - "absent" in WA includes out of electorate prepolls) and postals (59.8 to ALP).  These are common weak spots for independents but this is an extreme case because the Liberals recommended preferences to Labor.  Hulett is 342 behind (50.8 to ALP) and isn't likely to break even on remaining postals either.  She has flagged a possible challenge, I believe over voting day issues such as booths running out of ballot papers.  

South Perth (ALP 10.1%) In the official count yesterday Labor's Geoff Baker's lead narrowed by about 140 votes to 189 on the basis of a correction in the Challenger Reserve booth, but as William Bowe has noted the correction was apparently incorrect.  My usual checking graph confirms this; the outlier is the "corrected" booth, where Labor are only getting a third of preferences despite getting close to two-thirds elsewhere.

Also, Labor has benefited from absents today and are 300 ahead in the official count; if that's really 440 or so as it appears to be then that's Labor ahead just shy of 51-49, which won't be coming back all the way on late postals, especially not after the weak break on the early ones.  

On the other hand I'll be heavily surprised if Murray-Wellington (ALP 17.4%) comes back into play.  It is the case that in 2021 prepolls were a few points better for Labor than the votes overall here but the Liberals' David Bolt is 52.1-47.9 ahead and I'd expect that to be too much to make up. 

This leaves five seats that I think may still have life in them, which I will update roughly daily when anything has happened:

Albany (ALP 11.0%) 

Labor has conceded Albany and the question is whether the Nationals' Scott Leary or the Liberals' controversial candidate Tom Brough wins the seat.  Labor's Rebecca Stephens has 30.2% which will not be distributed, Leary has 22.2% and Brough 22.1%.  The remainder is Greens 7.5% Lionetti (IND) 7.1% Aus Christians 5.1% ON 2.6% LCP 2.3% and SFF 1.0%.  While their how-to-vote cards won't be followed much it is interesting that both Lionetti and Aus Christians recommended preferences to Brough.  Brough might do especially well out of Australian Christians after his comments on abortion laws.  A 3CP distribution would provide great clarity but we'll probably have to wait for the distribution of preferences.

Kalamunda (ALP 14.3%)

A standard 2PP contest with the twist that the seat doesn't have a within-district prepoll booth.  After a bunch of absent votes today did next to nothing, the Liberals' Adam Hort leads Labor's Karen Beale by 98 votes, with one small booth with a high Nats vote not yet counted to 2PP (it might very slightly increase the Liberal lead when it is).  Postals so far have broken only weakly to the Liberals (just over 52-48) and the count is only at 76.6% (in 2021 it reached 89.3%).  Late postals tend to be weaker for the conservatives than early ones (hence might even slightly favour Labor) and if there are more absents to add then this can still easily go either way.  Poll Bludger currently projects Labor ahead.  

Kalgoorlie (ALP 11.4%)

Here Labor's Ali Kent currently has a 51.5-48.5 lead over the Liberals' Rowena Olsen but the count is only at 64% (2021 final 78%) and the Poll Bludger prediction is for the lead to drop to 50.9.  While Labor should have the Liberals covered here it's also not quite clear that the Liberals are the opponent as Olsen leads the Nationals' Tony Herron by 4.8 points (20.7 to 15.9) and there is a massive 28.8% for other candidates, headed by independent Kyron O'Donnell on 13.1%. O'Donnell is the former Liberal MP for the seat (2017-21).  He's recommended preferences to the Nationals and has also polled well in booths where the Nationals were more competitive with the Liberals.  One Nation has also recommended preferences to the Nationals (via O'Donnell), for what it's worth, and I'd not completely discount the bloke vote factor in preferencing here either.  This one is interesting because it could be that the Nationals are more of a threat than the Liberals if they make the final two, but also the gap to second is a little bit larger than seems comfortable to overhaul.  Probably need to wait for the preference throw for this one, though the 2PP winner should be clear before that.

Pilbara (ALP 18.5%)

The issue with this one is that while Labor's Kevin Michel is ahead on estimates from ABC (51.3-48.7) and Poll Bludger (51.5-48.5), there isn't a 2PP count as the seat finished Labor vs National at previous elections (it has since been redistributed).  Also the count at 51.4% is not that advanced (though this is a low turnout electorate that only made it to 69.7 last time).  In this case the Liberals clearly are second.  A 2PP count would be nice.

Warren-Blackwood (ALP 2.2%)

In Warren-Blackwood it looks like the Nationals (Bevan Eatts) should win as they are currently leading Labor 52.3-47.7 in a reasonably well advanced 2PP count (over 70% of enrolment is in) and they are leading the Liberals on primaries in the race to make the final two, albeit only by 0.6%.  The seat is unusual in having a three-cornered major party contest but also having a very high Green vote.  In 2017 when the Greens were excluded far more of their preferences went to the Nationals than the Liberals.  One Nation also have 4.1% and have recommended preferences to Nationals.  For what it's worth, the donkey vote (usually <0.5%) will flow to the Liberals via Australian Christians and the Greens.