Sunday, May 2, 2021

2021 Tasmanian Postcount: Bass

(Link to main 2021 page including link to other postcount threads)

BASS (2018 3 Labor 2 Liberal)

CALLED RESULT 3 Liberal 2 Labor

MPs CALLED: Peter Gutwein (Lib), Michael Ferguson (Lib), Sarah Courtney (Lib), Michelle O'Byrne (Labor), Janie Finlay (Labor).  

Jennifer Houston (Labor) loses seat to Finlay.

In Bass, we currently have 81% counted, which is pretty good.  Premier Gutwein has already smashed Will Hodgman's 2018 record for the largest number of personal votes ever recorded by a candidate, and his 48.2% primary vote is the second highest of all time, behind Doug Lowe's 51.2% (which was pre Robson rotation).  For the Robson Rotation era he beats Robin Gray's 42.2% by six points, though that was achieved with seven candidates on the ticket and not six.  The concentration of the Liberal vote in Gutwein is amazing and has left incumbents Ferguson and Courtney looking a bit neglected!  They're bound to win on Gutwein's surplus though; indeed Ferguson will probably clear quota right away and Courtney might do so too.  

As expected on the Labor side Janie Finlay has taken over as the second candidate from Jennifer Houston, but in fact Houston has fallen to fourth leaving Michelle O'Byrne and Finlay as a clear top two.

The current party quota totals are Liberal 3.58 quotas Labor 1.57 quotas Greens 0.55 quotas.  (The rest is 0.14 for Shooters, 0.11 for Animal Justice and a few hundred votes for Roy Ramage).  That sounds really close, but it is not.  The reason it is not is that Hare-Clark is about candidates not just parties. 

The Labor ticket's 1.57 quotas are split up as 0.69 quotas for Michelle O'Byrne, 0.53 quotas for Janie Finlay and 0.35 quotas for the rest.  Even assuming that of the rest, say, 60% goes to O'Byrne, 30% to Finlay and 10% leaks, that puts Finlay up to about 0.64.  Still not far ahead of the Liberals and Greens one might say, except their votes will leak too.  In the case of the Liberals, they have 1.89 quotas of Gutwein surplus to throw, plus about 0.1 quotas from minor candidates.  Even if only, say, 5% of this leaks, that's still 0.1 quotas off their tally, leaving the final Liberal on about 0.48 quotas.  The Greens will also be affected by leakage, and any inroads made on the Animal Justice preferences will probably be cancelled out by Shooters.  I expect Finlay to also get much more Liberal leakage than Jack Davenport because Finlay is high profile.  Finally, as with Jennifer Houston last time, Finlay only has to beat one of the Greens and the final Liberal to win on the other's preferences.  

In my view this is a very clearcut 3-2 result but I don't want to absolutely call it right away just in the unlikely case that I have missed something.  

Sunday: A small amount of counting today taking the Liberals to 3.60 quotas Labor 1.57 quotas Greens 0.54 quotas.  I have seen a small scrutineering sample with a surprisingly high rate of Gutwein leakage but I think it's immaterial as the Liberals cannot get far enough ahead of both Labor and the Greens to avoid losing, and will probably be third anyway.  

Friday: Updated figures today but little change - Liberals 3.60 quotas Labor 1.56 Greens 0.55.

Tuesday: In advance of today's cutup I've called the final seat for Finlay as I cannot see her possibly losing on current figures in which she herself is only 331 votes behind the entire Green ticket.  The Green vote is also not strongly concentrated with Davenport and we saw high leakage rates from the Greens here last time.  

Tuesday 12:40: I won't be paying this one as much attention as some but final primaries are up and Peter Gutwein has finished on 32482.  

Thursday: Sarah Courtney has bragging rights after crossing on Gutwein's surplus while Ferguson didn't. He might not cross on Courtney's either. Just under 10% of the surplus leaked.

4:07 After Courtney surplus Ferguson is 71 short and will cross on votes from minor candidates, with a very small surplus himself.

6:19 Powell (ALP) excluded with about 13% leaking out of the ticket.  Finlay is now ahead of the entire Greens ticket which still has three exclusions to come before Davenport is on his own.  

Wednesday 12:34 A day after Sarah Courtney was elected, Michael Ferguson has crawled across the line. 

2:21 The Greens almost caught Finlay on Animal Justice preferences but Finlay will now pull ahead of them again.

Thursday 1:54 The final throw of Liberal votes is on now with Finlay already 2121 ahead.  

2:40 Finlay 2760 ahead now with a few thousand to throw.

4:01 Finlay 3456 ahead with 156 to throw.  She doesn't have quota so I'm not sure if the 156 are thrown or not.  

4:47 They are and it's an easy win for Finlay with 3499, a margin of 5.2% over the Greens.  Finlay finishes just shy of quota by 43 votes.  

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