2025 Tasmanian State Election Guide: Lyons

This is my Lyons electorate guide for the 2025 Tasmanian State Election.  (Link to main 2025 election preview page, including links to other electorates.)  If you find these guides useful, donations are very welcome (see sidebar), but please only donate if you can afford to do so.  Note: if using a mobile you may need to use the view web version option at the bottom of the page to see the sidebar. 

Lyons (2024 result 3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green 1 JLN, at election 3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green 1 Nat)

Most of the state

Rural, outer suburban and forested.  

Lots of tiny dispersed towns that take many years for an MP to work

Candidates

Note to candidates: As the number of candidates becomes large, continually changing link and bio details could consume a lot of my time.  It's up to you to get your act together and have your candidacy advertised on a good website that I can find easily well ahead of the election.  On emailed or Twitter/Bluesky request by July 12 at the latest I may make one free website link change per candidate at my discretion; fees will be charged beyond that.  Bio descriptions and other text will not be changed on request except to remove any material that is indisputably false.   

Where a link is available, a candidate's name is used as a hyperlink.  Emails from candidates who do not understand this will be ignored.  

I am not listing full portfolios for each MP, only the most notable positions.  Candidates are listed incumbent-first by cabinet position/seniority and then alphabetically, except if stated otherwise.

Liberal

Guy Barnett, incumbent, Deputy Premier,  Treasurer, Attorney-General, Minister for Justice, former Senator

Mark Shelton, incumbent, backbencher, Speaker, former minister Police, Local Govt etc, former Meander Valley mayor

Jane Howlett, first-term Assembly incumbent (previously MLC for Prosser), Minister Primary Industries, Hospitality and Small Business, Racing

Stephanie Cameron, Deputy Mayor Meander Valley, farmer, deputy president of party, 2021 and 2024 candidate

Bree Groves, farmer, former electorate officer for Bridget Archer

Richard Hallett, prominent Hollow Tree farmer, chair Southern Highlands Irrigation Scheme committee, 2024 candidate

Judith "Poppy" Lyne, farmer (sheep, cattle and irrigated cropping), former councillor

Labor

Jen Butler, incumbent, Shadow Minister Police, Corrections, Veterans Affairs, Women etc

Casey Farrell, incumbent elected on recount in March,  previously CEO Enterprize Tasmania (business startups firm), also Neon Jungle (design/technology)

Edwin Batt, Mayor of Southern Midlands, 2021 and 2024 candidate, farmer

Shannon Campbell, first-term Sorell Councillor, Founder/CEO of Campbell Conveyancing & Campbell Attraction Marketing

Richard Goss, "high school teacher with a mechanical and construction trade background", Northern Midlands councillor and former Deputy Mayor, 2024 candidate

Brian Mitchell, federal MHR for Lyons 2016-2025, former journalist/editor/media consultant, more detail here

Saxon O'Donnell, young baritone singer and recent support Senate candidate

Brian Mitchell retired graciously as Lyons incumbent to make way for Rebecca White amid a widespread belief that Labor risked losing if they did not make the switch.  It turned out Labor won Lyons much more easily than expected!  The Liberals have sought to use Mitchell's old social media posts travails from the 2022 federal campaign (noted on the "more detail here" link above) against Labor but have been hamstrung in so doing by the Electoral Act which prohibits them using his name without consent in advertising, whatever that is.  

Greens

Greens candidates are listed in endorsed ticket order.  Link to Lyons Greens profiles

Tabatha Badger, first-term incumbent, past Wilderness Society convenor and Lake Pedder restoration campaigner

Alistair Allan, Antarctic and marine campaigner at Bob Brown Foundation, former Sea Shepherd captain, 2024 candidate, 2025 federal candidate 

Hannah Rubenach-Quinn, former Break O'Day councillor, chaplain, disability support worker, 2014 and 2024 candidate, 2016 federal candidate

Isabell Shapcott, museum and gallery professional at QVMAG, 2021 candidate

Mitch Houghton, social work student, climate campaigner with Bob Brown Foundation, past horticulture business owner/operator, 2021 Bass and 2024 Lyons candidate

Craig Brown, retired GP, 2024 candidate

Joey Cavanagh, "longtime Greens volunteer".  Apparently a speedcuber.  

Nationals 

Andrew Jenner, first-term incumbent elected for Jacqui Lambie Network, former UK Tory mayor and voluntary magistrate, former Liberal Party member

Francis Haddon-Cave, former barrister in Hong Kong

Rick Mandelson, Midlands-based tax agent, secretary/treasurer/director of companies in psychology, fencing, land and rail and quarrying

Lesley Pyecroft, Army veteran, registered nurse (schools and LGH)

John Tucker, Liberal MHA 2019-2023, defected to crossbench over stadium, lost seat in 2024 as independent, farmer, former Break O'Day councillor

Shooters, Fishers and Farmers

Carlo di Falco,  target shooter, hunter and gun collector, serial candidate making his 8th run for party, more detail here

Independents - Own Column

Angela Offord, Launceston vet, has been involved with Voices for Tasmania, ran in 2024 and for federal seat

Independents - Ungrouped

Phillip Bigg, tradesman, hunter, President Tasmania's Shooters Union Australia, former SF+F state secretary and frequent candidate, regular #politas contributor

Ray Broomhall,  esoteric lawyer, formerly of No5G Party and ran for Federation Party Senate 2022 then Trumpet of Patriots 2025 

Paul Dare, retired, farmer, army veteran (worked on electronics and helicopters), former senior Baptist pastor, hospitals board member

Michelle Dracoulis, Mayor of Derwent Valley, was preselected by Labor for seat in 2024 but withdrew, photographer

John Hawkins, prominent antiques dealer and Tasmanian Times writer, LegCo candidate for Western Tiers 2012, petitioned against election of Eric Abetz to Senate in 2010 to force Abetz to provide evidence of renouncing German citizenship

Jiri Lev, prominent architect and heritage and planning advisor who supplies build-it-yourself housing plans

Tennille Murtagh, Brighton Councillor, One Nation candidate for Lyons federal 2019 (polled 8.1%), works at Wilson Security (buses, Royal Hobart Hospital and Indigenous engagement)

An adverisement for Hawkins calls for legislation to "create a talent pool of over 65 citizens who will sit for one term only in the parliament in three [sic] years' time and calls for requiring candidates to take an exam! 

The ballot paper order in Lyons is SF+F, Nationals, Greens, Offord, Labor, Liberal, ungrouped

Prospects for Lyons

Lyons often runs alongside the northern seats but a little behind them on the Liberal vote.  At the Liberals' previous three victories they would have won four seats in Lyons under the current system but in 2024 they could only manage three.  They polled 37.6% (3.00 quotas) to Labor's 32.8% (2.62), Greens 10.9% (0.86 Q), Lambie Network 8.3% (0.66), Shooters Fishers and Farmers 4.8% (0.38) and Tucker 3.1% (0.24 Q).  

This looked like a close race between Labor and JLN for the final seat but Labor dropped back on a very high leakage rate off Rebecca White's surplus and never recovered.  In fact, Andrew Jenner (JLN) overtook the Greens on preferences and was elected sixth.  

Labor will suffer from the absence of White who was a huge vote-getter.  However the silver lining is that they will be able to spread their vote better and reduce leakage, especially with Mitchell's presence effectively giving them three incumbents (albeit one of those, Farrell, having not been there for long). If things go badly for Labor Farrell could struggle against Butler and Mitchell after such a short time in parliament - MPs elected on mid-term recounts are often vulnerable and Farrell has had a very short time as an incumbent.  

Without the competition from the JLN banner and even without White it's pretty easy to see how Labor can manage three here if the election goes decently for them overall, the question being can the Liberals drop back to two, and if so who would it be to?  

The non-big-three vote appears scattered here between the Nationals, SF+F and independents and I'm struggling to put any of these over the line.  The Nationals have an incumbent and a recent incumbent on their ticket and the question is how much vote can be picked up there between Tucker's support base from 2024, whatever Jenner carries from those who voted JLN in 2024, and miscellaneous support for the Nationals attempt. .  The flow from whichever of Jenner or Tucker is excluded to the other may not be all that strong.  I'm not wildly convinced of the idea that the conservative anti-stadium vote is enough to elect this lot; if it is then why did Tucker bomb out in 2024?

Of the independents Dracoulis at least might poll substantially but being Mayor of a not especially large municipality population-wise is typically not near enough.  The SF+F vote in this seat is sometimes decent but I am expecting them to suffer from a modest effort and competition from the Nats.  Also the Shooters lineup has fractured with Bigg running as an indie; he seems to have more energy than the remaining party put together.    As for the Greens while being short of quota could make them at risk with some combinations of other party totals, I reckon that this time that's probably not going to be an issue, at least if their primary vote holds.

Outlook for Lyons:  3-3-1-0 (Liberal-Labor-Greens-others) is the early frontrunner, perhaps Nats still a chance despite poor early polling.