2025 Tasmanian State Election Guide: Bass

This is the Bass electorate guide for the 2025 Tasmanian State Election.  (Link to main 2025 election preview page, which will include links to other electorates.) If you find these guides useful, donations are very welcome (see sidebar), but please only donate if you can afford to do so.  Note: if using a mobile you may need to use the view web version option at the bottom of the page to see the sidebar. 

Bass (2024 Result 3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green 1 JLN, at election 3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green 1 IND)

North-east Tasmania including most of Launceston

Mixed urban/small-town/rural

Candidates

Note to candidates: As the number of candidates becomes large, continually changing link and bio details could consume a lot of my time.  It's up to you to get your act together and have your candidacy advertised on a good website that I can find easily well ahead of the election.  On emailed or Twitter/Bluesky request by July 12 at the latest I may make one free website link change per candidate at my discretion; fees will be charged beyond that.  Bio descriptions and other text will not be changed on request except to remove any material that is indisputably false.   

Where a link is available, a candidate's name is used as a hyperlink.  Emails from candidates who do not understand this will be ignored.  

I am not listing full portfolios for each MP, only the most notable positions.  Candidates are listed incumbent-first by cabinet position/seniority and then alphabetically, except if stated otherwise.

Liberal 
Michael Ferguson, incumbent, former Deputy Premier, Treasurer, Minister for Infrastructure, Health Minister, etc, now backbencher, federal MHR 2004-7

Simon Wood, incumbent, parliamentary secretary for Health, government whip, former Launceston councillor (2014-8) and staffer

Rob Fairs, first-term incumbent, parliamentary secretary for Youth Engagement, high-profile breakfast radio announcer, former TV host, charity fundraiser and sports consultant

Bridget Archer, federal MHR for seat 2019-2025 noted for moderate views and frequent floor-crossing, previously Mayor of George Town.  (Detailed profile)

Chris Gatenby, staffer for Sen Richard Colbeck, recent President of state Liberal Party

Sarah Quaile, public school teacher

Julie Sladden, West Tamar councillor, Spectator author, doctor who closed practice over COVID vaccine mandates and maintains that COVID vaccines do not work  (see previous article)

Labor

Janie Finlay, incumbent, Shadow Minister Energy, Environment, Primary Industries etc, former Launceston mayor

Melissa Anderson, administrative officer, 2024 candidate

Jess Greene, West Tamar Deputy Mayor, Community and Public Sector Union organiser, 2020 Rosevears candidate, previous board chair Laurel House, #politas regular

Will Gordon, nurse in paediatrics at Launceston General Hospital, involved in recent COI process, 2024 candidate

Geoff Lyons, former Bass federal MHR 2010-3, West Tamar councillor, 2024 candidate and Windermere candidate 2021, former LGH business manager

Luke Moore, (there are multiple possible people with this name, awaiting further details)

Peter Thomas, (there are multiple possible people with this name, awaiting further details)

Greens

Cecily Rosol, first-term incumbent, counsellor, foster carer, former nurse and school chaplain

(rest of Greens ticket TBA)

Independents

Rebekah Pentland, first-term incumbent elected as JLN MP, small business (construction/property/labour/apartments), former pharmaceutical business consultant

Jack Davenport, child protection advocate, 2021 Greens lead candidate and former Greens advisor, former UK councillor

Nationals

Carl Cooper expected candidate, bio will be added if publicly confirmed

Retiring MP: Michelle O'Byrne (Labor)

Prospects for Bass

Federally Bass loves to throw out its incumbents, and six weeks back oops it did it again.  It wasn't any kinder on the state Liberals in the 2024 campaign.  Coming off the huge 2021 vote for Peter Gutwein, and further hamstrung by stadium blues and local branch inviting, the Liberals copped a 21.9% swing against them.  The government still polled 38.0% (3.04 quotas) to Labor's 29.8% (2.38) with 12% (0.96 Q) for the Greens, 8.1% (0.65 Q) for Lambie Network with the rest to a scatter of low-scoring (and mostly more vain than sensible) indie campaigns and a couple of micro-parties.  

The 2024 battle at party level was between Labor and Lambie Network, but it wasn't all that close (Pentland was 4.4% (0.35 Q) ahead at the time Labor's third candidate exited).  One possibility here is that Pentland doesn't get very much without the JLN name, and in this case Labor picks up the third seat without much difficulty.  But if Pentland does well as perhaps the most prominent non-Green no-stadium option then Labor could have trouble having just one incumbent.  

For the Liberals the most likely top three in some order will be Ferguson (1.44 quotas in his own right last time), Archer and Fairs.  Ferguson has had a poor term losing his Cabinet position to the Spirits fracas, but would have to go a long way down to lose from there.  It will be very challenging for Simon Wood to hold his seat with Archer in the mix.  

In theory a two-party swing of just over 4% would see Labor take the Liberals' third seat even in the event of Pentland or some other independent winning.  However this is not that easy.  Labor has only the one incumbent, Janie Finlay, who will probably get quota and then some, but the rest of their ticket may not be high-profile enough to hold off leakage risks.  With six of seven candidates declared, the Labor ticket does not look particularly strong.  

I expect Rosol will retain her seat.  While the Greens are not assured of getting quota in their own right here, there should be enough scatter that anything over, say, 0.8 Q (10%) is fine.  

The other thing to mention here is that there are enough stray votes and anti-stadium views out there that a high enough profile independent or National could in theory take Pentland's seat for themselves; at this stage, no such person has been announced.  (High profile here does not mean "I am a Launceston city councillor").  

Outlook for Bass: Will be refined in light of polling, but 3-3-1-0 (Liberal-Labor-Green-others), 3-2-1-1 and less likely 2-3-1-1 seem plausible in early running.