2025 Tasmanian State Election Guide: Bass

This is the Bass electorate guide for the 2025 Tasmanian State Election.  (Link to main 2025 election preview page, which will include links to other electorates.) If you find these guides useful, donations are very welcome (see sidebar), but please only donate if you can afford to do so.  Note: if using a mobile you may need to use the view web version option at the bottom of the page to see the sidebar. 

Bass (2024 Result 3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green 1 JLN, at election 3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green 1 IND)

North-east Tasmania including most of Launceston

Mixed urban/small-town/rural

Candidates

Note to candidates: As the number of candidates becomes large, continually changing link and bio details could consume a lot of my time.  It's up to you to get your act together and have your candidacy advertised on a good website that I can find easily well ahead of the election.  On emailed or Twitter/Bluesky request by July 12 at the latest I may make one free website link change per candidate at my discretion; fees will be charged beyond that.  Bio descriptions and other text will not be changed on request except to remove any material that is indisputably false.   

Where a link is available, a candidate's name is used as a hyperlink.  Emails from candidates who do not understand this will be ignored.  

I am not listing full portfolios for each MP, only the most notable positions.  Candidates are listed incumbent-first by cabinet position/seniority and then alphabetically, except if stated otherwise.

Liberal 
Michael Ferguson, incumbent, former Deputy Premier, Treasurer, Minister for Infrastructure, Health Minister, etc, now backbencher, federal MHR 2004-7

Simon Wood, incumbent, parliamentary secretary for Health, government whip, former Launceston councillor (2014-8) and staffer

Rob Fairs, first-term incumbent, parliamentary secretary for Youth Engagement, high-profile breakfast radio announcer, former TV host, charity fundraiser and sports consultant

Bridget Archer, federal MHR for seat 2019-2025 noted for moderate views and frequent floor-crossing, previously Mayor of George Town.  (Detailed profile)

Chris Gatenby, staffer for Sen Richard Colbeck, recent President of state Liberal Party

Sarah Quaile, public school teacher

Julie Sladden, first-term West Tamar councillor, Spectator/Quadrant culture warrior, former adviser to Russell Broadbent, retired doctor who closed practice over vaccine mandates and maintains that COVID vaccines do not work  

I am very critical of the Liberal Party's preselection of Sladden, which attracted significant media controversy in 2024  - see previous article. In 2025 after a slow start to the Sladden season Labor has had a go saying that Sladden should be kicked off for working for Russell Broadbent.  (Much as I am disgusted that Sladden was endorsed once let alone twice this is in fairness a bit of a glass house for Labor given the number of Davidobyrnists given free passes to continue and thrive in the ALP.) They have also referred to recent climate science controversialism from the candidate.  Sladden is an admirer of famous "lukewarmer" Bjorn Lomberg.

Labor

Janie Finlay, incumbent, Shadow Minister Energy, Environment, Primary Industries etc, former Launceston mayor

Melissa Anderson, customer service (agriculture/construction), 2024 candidate

Jess Greene, West Tamar Deputy Mayor, Community and Public Sector Union organiser, 2020 Rosevears candidate, previous board chair Laurel House, #politas regular

Will Gordon, nurse in paediatrics at Launceston General Hospital, involved in recent COI process, 2024 candidate

Geoff Lyons, former Bass federal MHR 2010-3, West Tamar councillor, 2024 candidate and Windermere candidate 2021, former LGH business manager

Luke Moore, marine engineer and offshare installation manager, history in oil and energy industry

Peter Thomas, background in finance

Greens

Greens candidates are listed in their endorsed ticket order. Link to Greens Bass profiles.

Cecily Rosol, first-term incumbent, counsellor, foster carer, former nurse and school chaplain

Charlene McLennan,  lawyer specialising in domestic and family violence and legal aid, 2022 federal candidate for seat

Jack Fittler, staffer for Peter Whish-Wilson, 2024 candidate

Lauren Ball, BA student (politics and policy), 2024 candidate

Tom Hall, doctor, anaesthetist, past candidate inc 2019 federal

Anne Layton-Bennett, writer, library technician, candidate 2014, 2021, 2024

Eric March, dentist at Braeside Dental

Shooters Fishers and Farmers

Michal Frydrych, Chairperson Rural Businesses Tasmania, infrastructure projects and business development, 2024 candidate

Nationals

Angela Armstrong, lawyer, foster carer, former corporate strategist, 2024 JLN candidate for seat (narrowly defeated by Pentland)

Carl Cooper, rural pharmacist in Tasmania and NSW, expertise in sports doping, 2019 federal Nats candidate for seat

Independent - Own Column

George Razay, Launceston councillor, GP/Geriatrician at the Launceston General Hospital for 25 years, 2024 candidate, 2022-5 federal candidate polling c.5% as sole IND each time

Independents - Ungrouped

Rebekah Pentland, first-term incumbent elected as JLN MP, small business (construction/property/labour/apartments), former pharmaceutical business consultant

Jack Davenport, child protection advocate, 2021 Greens lead candidate and former Greens advisor, former UK councillor

Fenella Edwards, writer/producer, rap singer, stand-up comedian and poet, also former science communicator and statistician, Senate candidate 2022-5 (disendorsed by Sustainable Australia for latter), more here

Caroline Larner, serial Australian Citizens (nee Citizens Electoral Council) candidate, registered nurse and plant nursery worker,

Daniel Groat, sales rep at Wurth Australia industry supplies wholesaler, JLN candidate 2018 and minor JLN Senate candidate 2022.  

Tim Walker, Launceston councillor (first elected as a Green, now independent), former ABC journalist and former Greens advisor, 2024 candidate

Pentland is running as an independent but co-appeared with Liberal Rob Fairs at an announcement and there have been reports of shared corflute sites/distribution..  Pentland was also quoted in a press release by Nick Duigan in February.  

Retiring MP: Michelle O'Byrne (Labor)

The ballot paper column order in Bass is Greens, Nationals, Labor, Liberal, Razay, SF+F, ungrouped

Prospects for Bass

Federally Bass loves to throw out its incumbents, and on May 3 oops it did it again.  It wasn't any kinder on the state Liberals in the 2024 campaign.  Coming off the huge 2021 vote for Peter Gutwein, and further hamstrung by stadium blues and local branch inviting, the Liberals copped a 21.9% swing against them.  The government still polled 38.0% (3.04 quotas) to Labor's 29.8% (2.38) with 12% (0.96 Q) for the Greens, 8.1% (0.65 Q) for Lambie Network with the rest to a scatter of low-scoring (and mostly more vain than sensible) indie campaigns and a couple of micro-parties.  

The 2024 battle at party level was between Labor and Lambie Network, but it wasn't all that close (Pentland was 4.4% (0.35 Q) ahead at the time Labor's third candidate exited).  One possibility here is that Pentland doesn't get very much without the JLN name, and in this case Labor picks up the third seat without much difficulty (unless things go terribly for them, in which case the Liberals might get four).  But if Pentland or the Nationals do well as non-Green non-stadium options then Labor could have trouble having just one incumbent.  

For the Liberals the most likely top three in some order will be Ferguson (1.44 quotas in his own right last time), Archer and Fairs.  Ferguson has had a poor term losing his Cabinet position to the Spirits fracas, but would have to go a long way down to lose from there.  It will be very challenging for Simon Wood to hold his seat with Archer in the mix.  

In theory a two-party swing of just over 4% would see Labor take the Liberals' third seat even in the event of Pentland or some other independent winning.  However this is not that easy.  Labor has only the one incumbent, Janie Finlay, who will probably get quota and then some, but the rest of their ticket may not be high-profile enough to hold off leakage risks.  Lyons has some profile left over from his federal term and has kept active since and may pick up some of O'Byrne's votes, some will also go to Greene and others.  

I expect Rosol will retain her seat.  While the Greens are not assured of getting quota in their own right here, there should be enough scatter that anything over, say, 0.8 Q (10%) is fine.  

Pentland is running from the ungrouped column.  This appears a strange decision, but it isn't impossible to win from there in the way it is in the Senate and she will benefit from preference flows from other ungroupeds (though that lot may not get that many votes between them).  The last candidate to win from the ungrouped column was Bill Wedd in Denison in 1959.  In general the independent/Nationals lineup here doesn't look particularly strong.

Outlook for Bass: Potentially 3-3-1-0 (Liberal-ALP-Greens-other) but ALP ticket not that strong, so other things are possible.