2024 NT Election Postcount

RESULT CLP 17 ALP 4 IND 3 GRN 1

Fannie Bay: CLP has narrowly defeated Greens with Labor failing to make final two.

Nightcliff Greens have defeated Labor.

This post will follow the post-counting in remaining seats of interest in the NT election, though at the time of writing only one or two seats are really in doubt.  I've started the thread anyway because a couple of the remaining seats are interesting. The general rule in NT elections is that once the margin goes over 100 that's the end of it, but that's all subject to rechecking, and wins from just outside 100 do happen sometimes (eg Barkly 2020).  If any more seats come into play I will include them in the list below.  

I'm confident that Justine Davis (IND) has won Johnston as she leads Labor by 4.4% and will presumably go further ahead on Greens preferences; I cannot see even the famous tendency of INDs to go badly on absents changing that even in a seat where absents were 12.4% of votes last time around; she would have to get almost no absents at all. I have also had info from scrutineers that the flow to her from Greens is strong enough that she will win. 

Note on turnout (Monday)

A comment has prompted me to add a note re turnout which currently sits at 57.6%.  NT elections have very high absent voting rates because the electorates are mostly small and close-packed in Darwin and a voter is quite likely to vote outside their division.  In 2020 these were about 10% of all votes.  There are also a few points of remaining postals and declaration votes to come.  There's a fair chance turnout will at least break 70 (it might not quite get there) but I don't expect it to reach the 74.9 of 2020.  The more voters you enrol, especially in the NT, the harder it is for the percentage turnout figure.  

Fannie Bay (ALP 10.9%)

I've moved this seat to the top as it seems the most interesting.

Intro (Sunday 2:15) The former seat of Chief Ministers from both sides has come up with something really different this time, the sort of three-cornered contest more familiar from, say, inner Brisbane - or even as one scrutineer has suggested, Prahran.

As I start with 62.6% counted it looks like this:

Laurie Zio (CLP) 39.8%

Suki Dorras-Walker (Grn) 29.3%

Brent Potter (ALP) 27.5%

Leonard May (IND) 3.4%

There were 490 postals issued, and in 2020 Fannie Bay had 486 absent and 35 declaration votes.  

To win Potter will need to overtake Dorras-Walker on some combination of the remaining votes and preferences from the independent Leonard May, regarding whom I couldn't find useful information beyond that he said Yes to a moratorium on the Lee Point DHA housing project, so he might help the Greens just a little bit.  Perhaps we will get a realigned 2CP to confirm that Dorras-Walker beats Zio if second, beyond that the Green to ALP margin will need watching to see if it comes down.  (The Zio/Potter 2CP has been pulled but I think it was as low as 51.7-48.3 to Potter before being taken down.)

 I believe there are some very friendly postals to be added for the CLP who could yet pick up the seat if the ALP to Green flow (believed to be about 2/3) isn't strong enough. The combined flow to Labor from Green + IND was recorded at 74.1% before it was taken down.  

Sunday 3:40  Said postals have been added - it is now Zio 40.4 Dorras-Walker 28.6 Potter 27.6 May 3.4.  At present Dorras-Walker if staying in second needs 69.2% of preferences, up from 67% earlier today.  That might actually be difficult but with 258 postals gone, what is left is mostly absents which tend to be good for the left.  The gap to Potter is 38 votes and May has 137 but I do not expect May's votes to close the gap substantially.

In 2020, Labor outperformed by about 4% on absents in this seat while the CLP underperformed by about 7%, the Greens matched their vote.  If that's repeated it will get even closer for second, and it will also knock the Greens' preference share target down to about 67.6% - still not guaranteed.  

Monday: Apparently a report on Sky that Liberal scrutineers think they are more than an outside chance.

Monday 3 pm: A realignment of preferences to CLP vs Green is underway but it is currently incomplete.  The count so far has 2021 votes which are Darwin EVC plus Eaton EVC.  In this count the Greens are getting 64.5% of preferences compared to the CLP's 35.5%.  However these are strong booths for the CLP and weak booths for the Greens, which suggests that the Greens will do better when better votes for them are added, but that the CLP are right in it and if the Greens win at all it will be extremely close at both cutoff points.  

3:30 Parap added, the Greens got 69% of preferences here.  But that is their best booth, so when the realignment is completed they should be marginally behind.  (It's currently 51.9-48.1).  I project when the realignment is finished the Greens will be about 62 votes behind - but absents should close most of that.  

4:40 Parap EVC added and I now project the Greens to be about 89 (edit: this should have been 69) behind, because postals are bad for them and will have weak preference flows.  That looks like too much.  

5:25 New projection Greens 76 behind with postals and Ludmilla to realign.

10:00 There are 470 absents/out of division prepolls (previously combined as absents I believe) to be added, roughly the same number as 2020.  The number of provisionals will be tiny.

Tuesday 1:45 The realignment is completed and Zio (CLP) is 76 votes ahead (50.9% 2CP).  It is going to be tough for Dorras-Walker to pull all of that back on absents/out of div prepolls.

3:40 445 absents counted,  CLP leads Greens by 55 and Greens lead Labor by 42.  Small numbers but there are not many votes left and it's hard to see where either will turn around.

Thursday morning: I understand that when the distribution of preferences occurs the Green lead over Labor will increase not decrease.  It looks like we are heading for what I believe will be a first: a major party winning the 2PP while the other major party wins the seat.  

Friday: Late postals have something to say about all this - a batch counted today has been won by the Greens 40-25, closing the gap to 40 votes.  There is a pattern in elections elsewhere that late postals are better for the left than early ones.  I'm not sure it really applies in the NT or if this one is just the vagaries of small numbers.  Anyway there are some more votes to come later today (I'm told there are more absents) and apparently an indicative 3CP.  

11:20 The last bunch of absents have seen the lead close by another 3.

2:50 An indicative 3CP today confirmed Labor have definitely lost as the Greens' lead over them increases by 37 votes after preferences.  The number of declaration votes to be counted is expected to be between 48 and 52.

Monday night: Just about the end as declaration votes help the Greens by only 9 votes and the margin is 28.  Still final postals to come I believe.

Wednesday: The margin has gone out to 32 on further postals and I understand only a handful (about five held back for anonymity reasons in case there might be one or two more) remain.  

Barkly (CLP 0.1%)

The CLP hasn't done so well in the bush as in the towns and this has been seen in Barkly where the swing to them from Steve Edgington's 2020 postcount miracle is standing at a modest 2.8%.  As I start the Barkly section Edgington leads Labor's Lizzie Hogan by 90 votes (1316-1226) with just 42.8% of enrolment counted.  Most of the rest of enrolment will not vote.  There were 232 postals requested (not all will come back) and last time there were 377 absents and 135 declaration votes.  55 postals have been counted so far.  None of these categories were that helpful to Labor last time and the CLP should retain Barkly but in view of the current low margin I am keeping an eye on it.  

Tuesday 1:45 Edgington's lead is now out to 98 votes.

3:30 Lead down to 64 after an 84-50 break to Labor on absents.  There are still quite a few absents/out of div prepolls to come so this isn't over yet.

Thursday 8:00 More absents have been counted and Edgington's lead increased to 70 so it would appear now he will safely retain.

Monday: Lead back out to 86 now.

Casuarina (ALP 16%)

Intro (Sunday 2:00) Labor has taken an absolute belting in what were once its safest seats in north-eastern Darwin,  There was some speculation about Wanguri as it was vacant and Karama on a lower margin, but Casuarina and Sanderson are big shocks.  Casuarina is a standard two-party contest with an indie and a Green as bit players.  As I start Khodi Patel (CLP) leads Labor's Lauren Moss by 117 with 60.9% of enrolment counted.  461 postals are known to have been issued, not all of which will return or be formal.  In 2024 there were 356 absents and 18 declaration votes, and the absents didn't favour Labor compared to other votes.  The CLP should win this seat.

Sunday 2:40 214 postals were added splitting 121-93 to Patel; I would think that's the end of that one as a contest.  

Monday 2nd: It has closed up a bit at the end with the margin now down to 68 votes but there can't be enough left to shift that.

Nightcliff (ALP 23.8%)

This is quite messy.  Former Chief Minister Natasha Fyles has taken a large swing in this very left-wing seat but it has gone to the Greens and an independent.  As I start with 63.6% counted it looks like this:

Natasha Fyles (ALP) 34%

Helen Secretary (CLP) 23.8%

Kat McNamara (Greens) 21.1%

Mililma May (IND) 19.1%

George Mamouzellos (IND) 2.0%

Secretary cannot win and will be overtaken by either McNamara or May on the preferences of the other, with whoever overtakes her then attempting to beat Fyles on CLP preferences from what I'd expect to be at least 5% behind and probably more.  If it is McNamara then Fyles should win because the CLP has recommended preferences to May then Fyles then McNamara - unless perhaps the flow from May to McNamara is remarkably strong (I understand that it is strong) and the CLP card follow rate is low.  If it is May it could be quite a different story, however May is currently struggling to get close enough to McNamara to perhaps get out of fourth on the tiny number of Mamouzellos preferences.

388 postals were issued (not all will return), of these 176 have been counted.  In 2020 there were 539 absents and 34 declaration votes.  

Tuesday 1:45 Negligible difference in further counting; absents are coming today.

Thursday morning: Nothing has changed in the overall picture for this seat although the gap for third has widened by another 0.5%.  We will most likely need to wait for the distribution of preferences.

Monday: Still waiting for a preference throw here but the result doesn't seem to be considered in any doubt otherwise I think there would be more going on around this one.

Tuesday: Distribution of preferences and if needed realignment expected tomorrow.

Wednesday: Well!  A boilover as in the realigned 2PP count the Greens are 42 votes ahead and appear to have won the seat, defeating Natasha Fyles!   (Subject to recount).  

Thursday: The recount cut the margin to 33 but there are not enough votes left to swing that so McNamara has won, another rare example of a candidate winning from third.