2024 Northern Territory Election Live

Postcount tracking is continuing here. 

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START POSITION ALP 14 CLP 7 IND 4 (1 IND retiring)

POLLS HAVE CLOSED.  Massive swings to CLP, CLP has won a majority

EXPECTED WINS (some may not be absolutely certain) CLP 14 ALP 4 IND 2

Expected seats changing

Expected CLP gain vs IND (vacancy): Goyder, Blain

Expected CLP gain vs ALP : Karama, Fong Lim, Drysdale, Wanguri, Port Darwin, Sanderson

Seats in doubt:

Barkly: CLP likely to hold vs ALP

Casuarina: CLP likely to gain from ALP

Johnston: IND appears very likely to gain from ALP

.Nightcliff: Likely ALP hold

Fannie Bay: ALP vs Greens (outside chance CLP), Greens ahead.

If all current leaders/favourites hold, CLP 16 ALP 5 IND 3 Green 1

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Updates scrolling to the top  - refresh every 10 mins from 6:30 on for new comments

END OF NIGHT WRAP: FIRST DOMINO FALLS AS CRAZY NT SWINGS CONTINUE

I'm not sure that that is the end of the night's counting yet but enough for now, and I will be back with a post-count thread in the middle of the day tomorrow as a few of the remaining seats are quite interesting.  After Labor won the 2022 federal election, then picked up NSW in 2023 it was common to see maps of Australia with everywhere red except Tasmania, but history shows that the trend will turn around and that once federal governments have got past their honeymoon phase the state and territory governments of the same party start dropping off the twig.  Federal drag is a theory and a fact, and an eight year old NT government that went through three Chief Ministers in a term has been quite savagely dumped in a likely preview of what will go down in Queensland in a couple of months.  The NT has also continued a pattern of crazy 2PP swings (in this case roughly 10%) that has now lasted ever since Labor first came to power in 2001. 

Even by the standards of NT elections this one has seen wild variation in seat swings with Labor apparently losing Sanderson (which was pretty much their safest seat) and Wanguri (also on a double digit margin) yet four Indigenous ALP members held on to some arguably shaky seats impressively.  Natasha Fyles could be the only one to join them back, assuming she can navigate a weird preference distribution where the CLP's decision to recommend preferences to her over the Greens could be the thing that saves the seat.

The campaign by teal-ish independents and Greens looks like it could net one seat apiece, though the Greens' lead in the race for second in Fannie Bay is fragile and there's still a way to go in that one.  

Lia Finocchiaro was one of two survivors of the 2016 wipe-out and has perservered as Opposition Leader and finally been richly rewarded (despite at one case there being rumours that she could be dumped!)  Hers is a rare case of a female leader taking office from Opposition and it looks like she will have a comfortable margin.  Overall I expected the CLP to probably get a majority but the scale of the result, in particular some of the seats that have fallen, suggests that urban Territorians had had enough.

11:30 More in in Fannie Bay and with 62.6% counted the Green lead over Labor has come down to 1.8%, noting that there are preferences from a very minor independent as well.  May not know the result of this til the distribution of preferences; I'm not sure NTEC does 3CP!  A big lot in in Johnston and Justine Davis is well placed with a lead of 4.6% and 63.6% counted, but independents tend to do badly on absents.  However the Green votes should help Davis.  In Casuarina the CLP's position has improved.  

11:11 Nothing significant to add but numbers can come through very late at night based on previous elections.

10:19 Another EVC in in Fannie Bay but it has not really changed the picture - the Greens are 2.4% ahead of Labor in second and will presumably win the seat if they stay there.  Still a lot of counting there to go.  Nothing in Johnston.  

9:49 A long wait now, mainly in the hope of getting some big EVCs in that will shed light on Fannie Bay and Johnston.

9:21 Incredibly, Sanderson is firming up further for the CLP - where did this come from?

9:15 There was something odd with the Fannie Bay projections that has been corrected, it looks like this will be Labor vs Greens to get into the top two with the winner taking the seat.

8:56 In Nightcliff, the CLP how to vote card could well save Natasha Fyles.  The issue is that they preferenced May above Fyles but on current numbers May is fourth, and so even if May puts the Greens over the CLP, the CLP card could save the incumbent.  INDs are notorious for doing badly in late counting suggesting it will be hard for May to get into third.  

8:37 In Fannie Bay just as I was thinking the CLP couldn't win, their primary position has improved and it seems to be a true three-cornered contest at the moment with the Greens currently second (but can they stay there?)  Labor is trailing on the 2PP at the moment if they are second.

8:33 The first preference flow in Blain was quite weak for Mark Turner suggesting that the CLP will defeat him.  

8:15 More votes in in Mulka and Guyula is fine and apparently re-elected.  Also Labor has improved in Daly and might now hold that seat (which would be quite amazing all considered)

8:07 The fire is everywhere now, even Nightcliff is a mess!  The CLP won't win it but whether either the Greens or Mililma May can beat Natasha Fyles will probably need to wait for realignment.

8:04 Labor holding up OK in Indigenous seats, they are so far holding Arnhem comfortably.  Eva Lawler appears to have lost Drysdale.

7:53 In the numbers in Johnston, a very close 3-way race on primaries.  NTEC has a Labor vs CLP 2PP but Justine Davis is second.  Four booths in and Davis would seem to be competitive here (she only needs to be ahead of Labor after Greens prefs and with the CLP not too far ahead.)

7:52 A great start for Robyn Lambley in Araluen who at the current rate might be the only independent.  

7:49 Even in Mulka, Yingiya Mark Guyula is struggling in the early counting.  This is a hard seat to project from booth to booth so wait for more to come in.

7:38 Another batch in - Blain is close between Mark Turner and the CLP.  Daly is looking close between the ALP and CLP.  Fong Lim CLP has a huge primary lead.  Two booths in in Sanderson and Labor is still struggling.  ALP ahead in Casuarina but not out of the woods there yet either.  ALP in trouble in Wanguri (on a large margin but vacant).  This is horrendous for Labor so far.  Plausible they will only get 4-6 seats, but that might improve later.  

7:30 A bright spot for Labor, they seem to be doing very well in Arafura where Manuel Brown had a big by-election win.  (A swing to him from the previous election.)  However different mobile teams can sometimes behave very differently in seats like this.  Greens are second in Braitling where the Labor vote is miserable.  

7:25 There is a huge swing in a booth in Sanderson (ALP 18.8).  Why am I even talking about this seat?   This looks like a horror show for Labor if I am looking at this seat.  

7:20 Big flood of numbers in - huge swing to CLP in Karama, big enough swing in Fannie Bay to make it very close, Gerard Maley appears to have held Nelson easily.  There are a lot of votes in in Karama making it hard for the swing not to carry through.  In Fannie Bay the Green primary is very high and Labor is actually so far in third!  Very interesting start there.  

7:18 "Very bad across the board for Labor" and report that Eva Lawler has a fight on her hands.  

7:15 CLP speaker on ABC saying they are winning Tennant Creek in Barkly by 100 votes, they lost this booth last election.  Generally a bad start for Labor but we need to see if it hits them in the seats where it matters.  

7:10 Pollbludger has beaten NTEC to the punch in two other seats Gwoja and Spillett.   In Gwoja there is only a small swing against Labor but that's a safe seat anyway; in other seats the swings look large.  

7:05 VOTES! Brennan and Namatjira off the mark.  CLP over 50% in both so far, checking booth matching.  The booth where the CLP has 74% in Brennan is a new booth.  Same true of the booth in Namatjira where the CLP has 58% in a 3-way race.  

6:48 Similar on ABC now and also a vague report that swings against Labor are "worse than we'd hoped"

6:40 A report on Sky that CLP are off to a flier in booths in Goyder, the reported 55% figure if accurate is way above what they were getting in booths last time.  

6:35 No votes yet - slower than 2020!

6:32 Natasha Fyles on ABC giving booth reports of a swing against the CLP to the Greens in a boot in Braitling.  Actual booths are often very small; I'd like to see the actual figures.  

6:22 Coughing in the background of the ABC coverage was so loud I thought there might be an intruder in my house and walked around turning all the lights on just in case.  

6:13 Report that about 23,000 votes were cast today.  That would point to a slight decline in percentage turnout and a roughly stable number of voters.  

6:02 This thing is on!  The usual scramble begins to find where the hell the NTEC has put the results page this time.  (Found it!)

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INTRO (10:30 AM)

Welcome to my live coverage of the 2024 NT election and subsequent post-counting. My previous post on the NT election was here:

2024 Northern Territory Election: Prospects And Polling

No new polling emerged during the campaign (I'm not sure that there was even new private polling) and so I saw no reason to write another article before today.  I didn't even see seat betting, which has been fun to look at in the past.  In general the majority of online observers in various opt-in result prediction polls (including the sidebar here) are expecting a CLP win, but it's not an overwhelming majority, and it's one split on whether the CLP will get a majority or not.

It doesn't seem to have been a campaign with obvious game-changers, but there have been several points of interest.  For electoral law buffs the most notable was Labor releasing an endorsement letter for their Karama incumbent Ngaree Ah Kit from independent Justine Glover written before the latter decided to run for the election.  Completely legal but an interesting test case for "truth in electoral advertising" proposals.  Other fun and games brought to us by the NT News has included Joel Bowden (ALP, Johnston) getting asked to leave a prepoll station and also a CLP donor being filmed ripping opposing signs (but he says they were up without permission and no charges have been laid.)  See also the ABC's summary of a campaign dominated by crime and police issues, some unexpected.

From 6:00 NT time (6:30 AEST) I will be posting live comments on the count as it unfolds, keeping an eye on the ABC coverage, the NTEC official site, and other sources of information if I have time to look for them.  Coverage will then continue through coming days, as time permits and as things happen.  I've turned my computer clock back half an hour to try to keep times in NT time! In 2020 the first booth figures appeared after just over half an hour.  

As a baseline for seat wins and losses I am treating 14 seats as Labor (including Daly won in a mid-term by-election), 7 as CLP and 4 as Independent (including Goyder which is vacant and Blain which was won by Labor last election).  

Once a clear picture develops I will be posting a summary at the top of the page, together with seat changes considered likely/expected etc.  I will be watching the ABC, the NTEC site and possibly Twitter for info as time permits.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: All assessments on election night are provisional unless described as definitively called.  It is easy to miss possible exclusion order scenarios and there can be counting errors in initial figures as well as strange behaviour in small numbers of postals.

Things I'm always watching for:

* Seats with unclear exclusion order issues, if any.  Some may need to be re-aligned from the two-candidate preferred count on election night.

* When watching the ABC website it is important to distinguish between actual preference flows and modelled preference flows, especially if the order of exclusions changes.  That said we may not see all that much of the latter this time around.  The Territory Alliance only made the final two in one seat last time.  

Antony Green has as usual been vigilantly tracking the early votes (postals, prepolls and mobile voting stations) and has found that there is a 5.3% (of total enrolment) shortfall compared to 2020, though some of this might be hidden in unreported mobile voting.  Causes include the decline in postal voting compared to the COVID-affected 2020 election, and not having prepoll on Sunday.  We will see how much of this gets made up in increased on-the-day voting and how the final turnout compares to 2020 (2020 final turnout was 74.9%).   Note that in some seats the vote is mostly prepoll rather than on the day.  

Normally in the NT a candidate who leads by 100+ votes at the end of counting night wins.  But there was an exception to this in Barkly 2020 where more postals came back than expected and the late postals split very strongly to the CLP, causing some embarrassment to my coverage as I had the seat up to "extremely likely" (but never quite called) to be a Labor hold.  (The CLP won by seven votes, overturning a 103 vote lead.) With a smaller postal count in 2020 we may not see such surprises this time.  In 2020 postals were not counted on Saturday but the postal count was well advanced by lunchtime Sunday.  

I intend to start a separate post-count thread for this election tomorrow, though I may just continue with this one if the number of seats in doubt is very small.  In 2020 seven seats were in realistic doubt overnight on counting night.