2024 Tasmanian State Election Guide: Clark

This is the Clark electorate guide for the 2024 Tasmanian State Election.  (Link to main 2024 election preview page, including links to other electorates.)  If you find these guides useful, donations are very welcome (see sidebar), but please only donate in these difficult times if you can afford to do so.  Note: if using a mobile you may need to use the view web version option at the bottom of the page to see the sidebar.  

Clark (Currently 2 Liberal 1 Labor 1 Green 1 Independent)

Western shore Hobart, primarily Hobart City and Glenorchy City

Inner and outer urban

Candidates (35)

Note to candidates: As the number of candidates becomes large, continually changing link and bio details could consume a lot of my time.  It's up to you to get your act together and have your candidacy advertised on a good website that I can find easily well ahead of the election.  On emailed request I may make one free website link change per candidate at my discretion; fees will be charged beyond that.  Bio descriptions and other text will not be changed on request except to remove any material that is indisputably false.   

Where a link is available, a candidate's name is used as a hyperlink.  Emails from candidates who do not understand this will be ignored. 

I am not listing full portfolios for each MP, only the most notable positions.  Candidates are listed incumbent-first by position/seniority and then alphabetically, except if stated otherwise. On ballot papers candidate names are rotated.

The ballot order for Clark is Labor, Liberal, AJP, Local Network, Johnston, Greens, Hickey, Shooters, Lohberger, Elliot, ungrouped.  Candidates within each column are rotated where there is more than one candidate.

Liberal

Madeleine Ogilvie, incumbent, previously Labor then Independent MP, Minister Corrections, Workplace Safety, Science, Arts etc

Simon Behrakis, first-term incumbent elected on recount, former Hobart Alderman and Abetz staffer, economist

Mohammad Aldergham, Variety Tasmania CEO

Emma Atterbury, personal development and tech startup consultant, podiatrist

Jon Gourlay, advisor to Michael Ferguson, company director in mining technology and luggage design

Catherine Searle, office head for global engineering/project management firm Jacobs

Marcus Vermey, owner of well-known butcher Vermey's Quality Meats, rowing coach

Catherine Searle is prominent at Cornerstone Presbyterian, a church involved in controversy several years ago over its same-sex marriage views and confrontational street preaching.  Searle has not been involved in any such incidents herself but is shown by Australian Christian Lobby as agreeing with all their candidate question proposals including ceasing government assistance to Dark Mofo.

Labor

Ella Haddad,  incumbent, Shadow Attorney-General, Justice, Corrections, Housing etc

Josh Willie, Legislative Council incumbent for Elwick, Shadow Minister Education, Transport, Sport etc

Stuart Benson, Labor State Secretary since 2017

Simon Davis, hospitality worker, unionist 

John Kamara, co-founder, Culturally Diverse Alliance Tas and African Communities Council Tas, 2023 Tas Australian of the Year

Rebecca Prince, Australian Public Service Service Delivery Leader, psychology student

Susan Wallace, communications specialist, former advisor to Senator Anne Urquhart 

(Hobart Councillor Ryan Posselt was seeking preselection but not selected)

Greens 

(Greens candidates are listed in endorsed ticket order)

Vica Bayley, incumbent elected on recount mid-term, former state campaign manager for Wilderness Society

Helen Burnet, long-term Hobart Councillor and third-term Deputy Mayor, podiatrist

Janet Shelley, Sustainability Director, Dpt Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, 2022 federal candidate

Nathan Volf, Behavioural Science graduate, social worker, 2021 candidate

Trenton Hoare, student, retail assistant Red Parka, board member Equality Tas

James Zalotockyj, early childhood educator

Peter Jones, former history teacher, prominent Quaker, Islamic Studies (PhD) peace and human rights activist 

Independents With Own Column

Kristie Johnston, first-term incumbent, former Glenorchy Mayor, criminologist/lawyer and hotelier

Louise Elliot, first-term Hobart councillor, president of landlord advocacy body, "gender critical" culture war figure, briefly in Liberals before quitting over pets in rentals policy 

Ben Lohberger, first-term Hobart councillor, founding member Save UTAS, Hobart City Mission worker

Sue Hickey, frequently floor-crossing Liberal Speaker 2018-21 (ran as Ind 2021), Deputy Mayor of Glenorchy, ex Hobart Lord Mayor

(Elise Archer announced she was running but withdrew the day after following a media interview in which she appeared to be unwell.)

I could write a whole article re Elliot, if not a small book, but I don't think her chances are significant enough to do it right now.  Of recent note she was suspended from Council following a Code of Conduct finding, which is now under appeal with the suspension part-stayed, but we're still not allowed by the bizarre Code system to know what the finding or its basis is. On 20 March it was announced that this decision had been set aside for want of procedural fairness and a new Panel would reconsider the matter.  She is also currently pursuing an Anti-Discrimination complaint against the Council over alleged discrimination in venue hire.  An Anti-Discrimination complaint against her over comments she made at Hobart's failed Posie Parker rally was recently withdrawn.  

Shooters, Fishers and Farmers

Adrian Pickin, Senior Regulations and Pricing Analyst at TasWater, practitioner of hunting using ferrets, 2023 Rumney candidate

Lorraine Bennett,  former recruitment consultant and HR manager, party secretary, frequent Shooters candidate

Local Network

Sam Campbell , former state co-ordinator Tas branch AUWU, 2022 Hobart council candidate

Frank Formby, locum palliative care specialist, content producer

David Nunn, co-owner Fern Tree Tavern

Ranae Zollner, student

Animal Justice Party

Casey Davies, storeperson, 2022 federal paper candidate, student of Protected Area Planning

Ungrouped Independents

John Forster business analyst, serial candidate but not for a while

Angela Triffitt cultural awareness and Indigenous community consultant

Stefan Vogel glaciologist and Antarctic scientist, 2018 and 2022 Hobart Council candidate

Vogel received a low-key Liberal endorsement in the 2018 Hobart Council election but is presumably no longer in the party.  

UTAS Move 

This is a significant campaign issue (at least as a source of campaign noise and incidents) in Clark, but unlikely to be a thing anywhere else.    The University of Tasmania's plan to relocate into the city centre was a major issue at the 2022 Hobart Council elections, at which it was rejected about three to one in an "elector poll" of voters (see the issues section of my 2022 Hobart guide for a background to the issue).  The University took a back step in response by withdrawing its redevelopment proposal for the Sandy Bay campus, but the issue is still about with several houses still having signs up from the 2022 campaign.  

Both major parties have been generally seen as supporting the move, but on 27 Feb the Liberals announced they would "keep the University of Tasmania in Sandy Bay".  (The Liberal statement falsely claims Labor amended the Act in 1992 to allow the University to sell land; in fact the Liberals themselves created a new Act containing the provision in question that year.  Labor did nothing in office in 1992 except lose an election on 1 Feb.)  The Liberals' statement, however, says that "The Liberal Party respects the right of the University to establish new facilities in the Hobart CBD, and elsewhere if they wish."  This has resulted in Save UTAS calling the Liberal policy a scam because it enables a situation where the University facilities all relocate leaving only a rustbucket campus.  

The Greens have appeared split on the issue with the incumbent Hobart Council Greens having been supportive of the move but the parliamentary Greens opposed, meaning that diehard UTAS move opponents might support Vica Bayley but not Helen Burnet.  (And diehard UTAS move supporters vice versa).  In late February the Greens formally adopted a policy to oppose the move.

Among the Clark independents, Ben Lohberger, Kristie Johnston and Louise Elliot all have form on opposing the move (Elise Archer was also likely to be an opponent if she ran).    Elliot announced on 24 Feb that Save UTAS had decided not to endorse her on account of her transgender issues views.  (This is always a risk with single-issue movements that draw widely across the spectrum).  

On 25 Feb the Save UTAS group's website was removed and their public Facebook page was set to private.  This site does not suggest or know anything regarding the cause(s), only that the event occurred.  The next day the pages were restored and the group, as long expected, endorsed Lohberger.  

Sue Hickey has worked for the university on supporting the move and strongly supports it.

Prospects for Clark

Clark, which I often refer to jokingly as the "People's Republic of Clark", is Tasmania's most left-wing and idiosyncratic electorate.  It falls into two halves - the Glenorchy part which was traditionally strongly Labor and the Hobart part which has historically had a high vote for Greens and other left-wing candidates, with a small Liberal enclave around Lower Sandy Bay.  At federal level the seat was won by Andrew Wilkie (left IND) from third in a thriller in 2010. Wilkie has since made the seat his own and now gets primary votes of nearly 50%.  

The 2021 Clark campaign was most notable for the horrendous collapse of the Labor vote, Labor falling from 41.9% in 2018 to 22.1%.  Causes of this cratering disaster included the departure of Scott Bacon, the defection of Madeleine Ogilvie leaving only one incumbent, the acrimonious disendorsement of Ben McGregor, obscure support candidates, competition from independents and a bewildered reception to Labor's pokies backflip in the inner city booths.   2021 was also notable for the strong showing from independents Kristie Johnston and Sue Hickey, with Johnston being the only winning independent in the history of the 25-seat system and Hickey coming close to costing the Liberals their majority in one of the most watched postcounts on this site.

The 2021 result (Liberal 31.8 Labor 22.1 Green 20.0 Johnston 11.0 Hickey 9.8 and a long tail of others) would have been 2 Liberal 2 Labor 1 Green 2 Independents under the 35-seat system.  However, previously Labor tended to outpoll the Liberals in Clark, with exceptions being 1992 and 2014.  Other recent elections convert to 3-3-1 in 2014 and 2018 and 2-3-2 in 2006 and 2010 (close to 2-4-1 in the former).  Clark is a huge problem for both majors in their quest for majority, because if you only get two in Clark you need four fours or a five somewhere else.

Three quotas is 37.5%, though a couple of points less would be enough for that.  The Liberals need only a modest swing to get there but they have lost Elise Archer.  Behrakis almost beat Ogilvie last time and should benefit from Archer's absence, though Ogilvie has had more time now to convince Liberals she's one of them.  It's possible the Liberals could drop below two quotas (25%), even so with a likely fairly even vote split I'd expect them to survive.  I have been wondering if Ogilvie could be at risk if the Liberals do only get two, though she does have plenty of campaign presence.  Vermey seems a strong third candidate and could be a risk to the incumbents (or a third winner if the Liberals do exceptionallt well).  

I expect the Labor primary in Clark to grow because of the endorsement of Willie, a high-profile second-term MLC with a good support base in the Glenorchy area.  I expect that he and Haddad will win easily with prospects they can rebuild Labor's base enough to be in the mix for a third.  But a third seat for either major party most likely depends on the Greens and Independents being held to two between them.

With the 35-seat system back the Greens should be pushing hard for two here but I've had early doubts about their shape to do so, and generally they are being outpolled by independents.  They are running Bayley as a specified lead candidate when Clark is most suited to running two lead candidates and trying to split the vote between them evenly (this helps parties to win in Hare-Clark - for very wonky technical details see here).  That said they are at least pushing Burnet as a second candidate, unlike in other seats.  They're without O'Connor who tended to divide opinions but at least was very high-profile, while Bayley is less established and viewed somewhat coolly by Green voters as seen by his narrow countback victory against much less well known Bec Taylor.  Their web presence has been disorganised in the early running (a drop-down link to Bayley was added six months after he elected it and the day after I noticed its absence here.)  I also think Johnston who often votes with the Greens and targets some similar issues could eat into their support base.  This said, Burnet has a history of often very strong performances for the Greens, including polling over 3000 votes in 2010, the highest ever for a Greens support candidate.  Her councillor vote has waned in recent elections - perhaps partly on account of the UTAS move issue in 2022 - but she was still easily re-elected as Deputy that year.  

Johnston seems likely to be re-elected, but if independents only get one it's possible Hickey beats her.  Johnston should have a higher profile from incumbency while Hickey has been out of the parliamentary spotlight since 2021.    On the other hand Hickey has been active on Glenorchy Council, would as noted above have won last time, and has a strong ground game based on her experience in promotions.  Other parties would want the Independent vote to be focused with Johnston to make it easier for them to beat Hickey.  Glenorchy Council has not been everyone's cup of tea lately (pool closure, rates rises) but a lot of Hickey's 2021 support came from Hobart.  

Elliot is a high-profile independent but her views are widely disliked on the left and her profile is mostly in the very left wing Hobart section; she has made a significant effort but I doubt she will do more than knock some size of dent in the Liberal vote.  There is some thought Lohberger is a smokie based on likely appeal to Wilkie voters and the Utas issue.  However, his profile is not that high for a relatively short campaign centred around an issue only half of the seat cares about.  Still both these are worth keeping an eye on.

Outlook for Clark (to be revised later):  The default scenario (2-2-1-0-2 with one Green and both Johnston and Hickey) is the lead suspect here.  If one of the indies falls short that seat could be taken by a third Liberal or a second Green, with Labor looking less competitive for three than earlier in the campaign.