Tasmanian Government To Lose Majority (Or Something)

On what could be a fast-moving day, it's been announced that Liberal backbenchers Lara Alexander and John Tucker will quit the Liberal Party and move to the crossbenches, taking the Rockliff Liberal Government into minority.  The primary trigger point (see detailed statement) is the proposed Macquarie Point AFL stadium, with both claiming there has been inadequate transparency from Cabinet, but there are other things going on as well.  Alexander's camp was criticising the government during the 2021 campaign over her inability to speak out as a new candidate, and she later controversially hosted an event for opposition to gay conversion therapy bans.  Tucker says he has been in talks about leaving since March and has also cited dissatisfaction over Marinus Link and the Battery of the Nation.  Alexander has complained about the Premier supporting a yes vote on the Indigenous Voice to Parliament.

Alexander is a first-term MP who polled 511 primary votes in 2021 in an extremely incumbent-focused campaign and then won on a recount after Sarah Courtney resigned.  (The recount was of the votes Courtney had when elected, about 20% of which were 1 Courtney and the rest 1 Gutwein 2 Courtney - the 511 primary votes did not contribute to her election.)  Tucker is a second-term MP who was re-elected in his own right in 2021 but with a relatively modest vote (4619 votes).

Both are, or perhaps that should be were, on the right of the party.  I cannot dismiss that this may be a ploy to force Jeremy Rockliff to resign in order to install Michael Ferguson as Premier (Ferguson has been seen dining with Tucker this week).  However if the two MPs do in fact leave then once they have left they will no longer be able to vote on leadership matters.  At this stage it does appear they are quitting in frustration.  Update: an unnamed Liberal source claims Tucker was slighted by not being made Primary Industries Minister despite his professional farming experience, while Alexander was neglected by the party generally.  (Probably unrelated to all this but there was an interesting issue with Tucker seeking to have a massive 1800 hectares of bushland at his Ansons River farming property cleared; a court appeal against the plan succeeded.)

Assuming all plays out as intended the Liberals will hold 11 seats, the Parliamentary Labor Party will hold eight, the Greens two and there will be an independent crossbench of sorts of four: David O'Byrne (currently a party member but outside the Labor caucus), Kristie Johnston (elected as an independent) and the two Liberal defectors.  Initial reports were that Tucker had guaranteed confidence and supply while Alexander had reserved the right to possibly support no confidence motions moved by others.  It has since appeared that Tucker has made confidence conditional on transparency regarding the stadium and Marinus Link.

This is a catastrophe for the government and no possible ending of it will be good for them.  After nine years of remarkable left/right public unity there have been some cracks visible in recent weeks and murmerings over the past few months, but this is now the worst internal collapse for a sitting government in the state since the fall of the Lowe and then Holgate Labor government over the Franklin Dam in 1981-2.  That government was the only government in Tasmanian history to go from an outright win at one election to an outright loss at the next.  It is an enormous gift to a state Labor opposition that has had its own internal problems that it is nowhere near resolving and after a dire 2021 election result has been struggling to get out of the low 30s in polling.  

Since the 1909 election (the first under Hare-Clark and arguably the starting point of well-defined party politics) there doesn't seem to have been a previous case with four independents in the House at once, excepting the five proto-Green independents in 1989-1992.  The total crossbench of six is also among the largest (there seems to have been a crossbench of seven following the 1925 election amid the crossover from the early Liberals of Walter Lee to the Nationalists).  

There is potential for the defections to impact on ministerial positions as the new crossbenchers may use their numbers to support no confidence motions in ministers, especially Racing Minister Madeleine Ogilvie whose performance Tucker has criticised.

Hickey Comparison

Comparisons may be drawn with the situation with rogue Liberal Speaker Sue Hickey in the previous parliament, but almost everything is different.  Hickey frequently voted against the government, causing it some policy defeats including on birth certificate gender changes.  However, Hickey remained a Liberal and therefore the government was able to continue to claim majority status; also, her dissents were generally on social policy matters.  In the end Hickey did leave the party, but only after being told she wouldn't be preselected (the government having probably made up its mind to go to an early election at that point).  Hickey may have been a serious threat to the survival of the government (and indeed I suspect it was on account of her that Michael Ferguson left the Health portfolio) but all the average punters saw were some amusing games at the government's expense.  

Alexander and Tucker are conservatives and there's no reason to believe they want to install the Opposition.  However the optics of Tasmania no longer having a stable majority government are there no matter what they now do, and with it the public perception of chaos.  It also appears that they could be quite interventionist on their pet issues and at best the government is going to have to consult with them on everything and try to rebuild a constructive relationship. 

Monday Updates 15/5

There were a couple of significant developments today.  Firstly, an interview with Alexander where she stated she may block supply if any Budget lines that relate to the stadium are not transparently explained.  (It is worth noting here that Alexander is a certified accountant and holds a degree in Economics).  Secondly an interview with Tucker where he said it would be "of grave concern" to him if someone involved with the AFL dealings was a beneficiary and that he had been told things about this (what things not being stated).