Tasmania Update: Stadium To Be Project Of State Significance

A brief update on today's developments following the announcement of a deal between the Rockliff Liberal Government and former members Lara Alexander and John Tucker, who quit the party just over a week ago and now sit as independents.

The essence of the deal is that in return for the independents' support on supply and confidence, the government has agreed to make the proposed Macquarie Point stadium a Project of State Significance rather than a Major Project.  This means both Houses of Parliament will need to approve the commencement of assessment. Both Houses will also need to approve any variation from the final decision of the assessment process.  Earlier I had thought that both Houses needed to give the project final approval but on reading the legislation this appears to be not the case if the government accepts the outcome of the POSS process without amendment.)

This means the stadium's fate will depend on both Houses approving the start of the assessment, and at least on the assessment itself. In the lower house, the former is no problem.   In the Legislative Council, the government will (barring absences) need three votes.  With Craig Farrell (ALP) in the chair, this means either three of the seven independents or Labor will have to support the POSS assessment for it to be approved. If Labor opposes approval, getting three independents onside could be challenging.

Why only three?  Because the approval process allows the motion to be approved unless it is disallowed.  This means a 7-7 tie on the floor on approval is also a 7-7 tie on any disapproval vote which means a disallowance motion doesn't carry.  (The process of approving the start of the POSS assessment can be relatively fast but the assessment itself would seem to take at least a few months.)

The independents have given standard confidence and supply agreements but have also agreed not to support legislation moved by Labor and the Greens (what about legislation moved by other independents?  Indeed this doesn't stop the pair from moving legislation themselves.)  All this should mean the parliament is stable for the short term and this week's manoeuvres in parliament should be just grandstanding,  However down the track the government may not be able to get all its legislation through (with the independents having reserved the right to vote against government Bills).  

I'm awaiting more detail on potential impact on other projects, as Alexander today flagged a preference for Project of State Significance assessment over Major Projects assessment in other cases, but it is not clear yet what deal might have been made on that.  

My initial reaction (this paragraph edited on 22 May) was that contrary to the immediate reaction from others, the agreement is a substantial win for the new independents, who had got more than I was expecting following news that a deal had been made.  However that was before the issue of a POSS approval not necessarily going back to parliament had surfaced.  At the moment the independents seem to have handballed the decision to the Legislative Council, or failing that they need more.  It remains the case that this is an embarrassing concession for the government and a potential wedge issue for Labor, while the Greens are deprived of oxygen because the independents won't support their Budget amendment.  

More comments may be added.  

[NB A few edits have been made through the day as I studied the POSS legislation.]

Sunday: Deadline update - the AFL deal for a 19th team has been released and the deadline for the stadium to complete approvals is 30 June 2025.  

Tuesday: The Premier has stated he is seeking advice on a pathway to ensure the stadium comes back to Parliament for a vote at the end if made a POSS.  (In my view a legislative amendment is the most likely and perhaps the only sound pathway).  If that occurs the independents can approve the kickstarting of the POSS process and have a second free vote at the end after the merits or otherwise of the project are clear to them based on the assessment.  That would also, however, take the heat off Labor for some time.